In one sense, yes, Bernie Sanders has an Elizabeth Warren problem. They’re competing for a lot of the same votes and she seems to be doing better than him in recent weeks. But I’d argue that the problem for Bernie Sanders is Bernie Sanders.

If he knew after his 2016 disappointment that he was planning to run again, he should have done a number of things in preparation that he did not do. The number one thing he ought to have done is to repair as many relationships as possible so that hard feelings from the (larger) Clinton camp would be muted as much as possible. He didn’t need to compromise on any principles to win some trust that he’s actually a loyal Democrat who is willing to work for the party and his colleagues. Yet, one of the first things he did was drop his brief formal membership in the party. He did little to discourage his surrogates from trashing Clinton and arguing that he was the better choice all along, which did not help sooth raw nerves.

Another thing he should have done is to examine the particular political climate of 2019-2020 to search for new angles on issues that are of pressing concern. There are many issues that are new or much more prominent today than they were four years ago. There are areas where public opinion seems to have shifted dramatically in the last four years, like gun control and marijuana legalization. The #MeToo movement is a new factor. The debate over immigration looks much different today. Climate change is more urgent and more of a concern for the electorate. Our foreign relationships are in a much different condition.

Where Sanders has introduced new ideas, they seem to be uniformly aimed at creating a more thoroughly socialistic system than he proposed in 2016: e.g., college and medical debt forgiveness. But, as popular as these ideas may be in certain circles, he has no realistic plan for how to pass them through Congress. The result is that his campaign just looks like the same one he ran unsuccessfully in 2016 but with even less plausibility.

There are some people who really value Sanders’ refusal to change.

For loyal followers such as C.J. Petersen of Breda, Iowa, Sanders’s consistency merits support at the caucuses. “Senator Warren is fantastic,” the 29-year-old said. “But Bernie has been on these issues in the very beginning.”

But among Iowa Democrats who caucused for Bernie four years ago, more than half currently express an intention to go with Warren next year.

“I give [Sanders] tremendous credit for changing the conversation,” said Rod Sullivan, a Johnson County supervisor who introduced Sanders at a campaign stop in 2015 and now backs Warren. “We need to get that kind of stuff done and I think there’s a better way to get it done now. Last time was a binary choice and this time I think there are better messengers.”

Whatever his faults, Donald Trump understands the importance of entertainment in politics, and Sanders keeps offering people re-runs. If anything, his success in moving the party in his direction on a host of issues makes it even more imperative that he do something new to distinguish himself and keep people’s interest. But his idea of new is mainly non-topical. In some cases, Warren has simply agreed with him and offered similar proposals, which has neutered his effort to stand out.

Consistency can be a virtue if you’re right and everyone else is mostly wrong, and sometimes you can get credit for being ahead of the curve or not following the pack. But this was never going to enough to put Sanders over the top by itself, especially because there isn’t enough consensus in the party that Sanders has been right.

Personally, I think Sanders has done almost everything wrong in this second run for the presidency. And, yet, despite that, he began in such a strong position, with a large and loyal and generous base and army of volunteers, that he is still very much in the running.

I don’t think I could help him, even though I suspect he could still pull this out if he’d show more dexterity. But he will not change, and I don’t think any adviser could really convince him to change.

This is change election environment, and Warren just captures that mood much more effectively that he ever will.  At this point, I’d be shocked if she doesn’t emerge as the main rival to Biden, but it’s only because I can’t see Sanders knowing how to capitalize on what look like almost even odds at the moment.

He hasn’t won over any Clinton supporters or gained any trust from elected officials. He’s had four years to prepare and all the money he needs to attract good political advice, but he’s done basically nothing to expand his support or adjust to the specific challenges of a new campaign. In other words, he’s blowing it.