It’s highly significant that AFL-CIO chairman Richard Trumka is supportive of the new North American trade deal known as USMCA even if some of the union’s sub-chapters aren’t sold on the agreement. The Democrats are satisfied that they have negotiated a package that is an improvement over NAFTA and that is “infinitely” better than what the Trump administration originally proposed in 2017. It looks like Nancy Pelosi will usher the bill through the House of Representatives shortly after she finishes impeaching the president.
Politically, I have trouble understanding how this makes sense, but it will help if the deal can be sold as good for workers. For that purpose, it’s key to have Trumka on board. I suppose the theory is that moderate Democrats are just as desperate as Trump to have some accomplishment they can run on. Personally, I think the election will turn on Trump’s ability to say that he’s delivered on his promises the white working class in this country, and for this reason a new trade deal that replaces the hated NAFTA is a huge messaging boon to him. I think it will hurt moderate Democrats in swing districts more than it would if they went to the voters empty-handed.
Yet, political self-interest shouldn’t be the only consideration, and if this is decent policy then it still might be the right thing to do. There are clearly some good things in the bill, but I don’t know that they can possibly outweigh the potential damage to workers of helping Trump get reelected.
I’m pretty sure the Republicans would never consider helping a Democratic president in distress fulfill a major campaign promise with massive bipartisan support. I guess you can consider the Democrats’ decision as foolish or as putting the country first depending on your perspective. If the deal was clearly a win for workers across the board, I’d feel better about this, but I suspect a better deal would be possible in 2021 if a Democrat wins the presidency.
McConnell doesn’t plan to act on the bill until after the impeachment trial is over.
Pelosi seems to think she’s giving cover to Democrats in tough districts. I think it’s a mistake. If Trump offered something of real value, that would be one thing. A public option, for instance. He would pay a political price for that so he’ll never do it (and the rest of the Republicans would never go along) but, if it were something that could happen, I’d say grab it before he changes his mind. I just don’t see enough upside here. It gives Trump a gift that makes him more likely to get elected again. There’s a time to stand firm and play hard ball. If this isn’t that time, I don’t know what is.