Most of the recent polls show President Trump’s approval numbers surging since the impeachment trial began to levels he has never enjoyed during his term in office. So, it makes sense for Pete Buttigieg to emphasize his supposed ability to win back Obama-Trump voters in Iowa as part of this last-minute strategy before the caucuses. His campaign reportedly believes that he must place in the top two in either Iowa or New Hampshire or his campaign will be effectively finished. He thinks he can accomplish this by focusing his efforts on some of the Iowa counties that moved from Obama to Trump.
He’s positioned fairly well if you believe the polls. In both Iowa and New Hampshire, he’s running in second place behind Bernie Sanders in the latest offerings. But it’s probably too simplistic to see his strategy as simply aimed at Trump voters.
Before I get to that, though, we have to accept that we’re talking about Iowa voters who went for a black man but not a white woman. Now we’re talking about them possibly going for a gay man. The kind of voter who would demonstrate a decision tree like this doesn’t fit the stereotypical mold of a midwestern Trump voter. Rather, they fit the mold of someone who tends to vote for change. They’re less MAGA-hat wearing racists than “throw the bums out” voters, and they’ve probably seen enough of Trump provided they have an acceptable alternative. If Clinton wasn’t enough change for them in 2016, then Biden won’t appeal to them in 2020. It’s not clear how many of these voters are out there, but they certainly exist.
As a strategy for Buttigieg, however, it’s not really as important that he can actually woo these voters as that he can convince Democratic caucus-goers that he has the potential to do so in the general election. And Democrats who live in Obama-Trump counties are the most traumatized and the best-primed for electability arguments. They know their neighbors, and they know what kind of candidate it will take to win them back. If Buttigieg can convince them that he’s that candidate, he’ll get a boost in those counties’ caucuses.
I can’t substitute my own judgment for theirs, but it seems clear that candidates like Biden and Klobuchar also have a compelling argument to make. They both seem less ideologically threatening or disruptive than Warren or Sanders. After that, their appeal probably diverges, with Biden having more appeal to working class men and Klobuchar more appeal to suburban women.
To my mind, they both have more potential than Buttigieg to win midwestern Obama-Trump voters. Bernie Sanders has potential, too, mainly because of his strong anti-free trade positions.
Having said that, Buttigieg is still making a smart play by framing his electability on his ability to win back Obama voters. It’s just that this is probably going to be more persuasive to Clinton voters.
Buttigieg’s closing ad for Iowa.