I guess somebody has to be a pessimist but the CNN poll still shows Biden ahead, and it really is an outlier. It’s the only concerning data point that came out this weekend, so I think it’s premature to say that the race has narrowed since Kamala Harris was put on the Democratic ticket.

I will say that I considered her a risky choice, mainly because this country has spent four years trying to prove it’s racist as fuck, but there are other data to support the idea that Harris will help shore up Biden’s relatively weak position with black voters. It’s a bit confusing because black voters absolutely rallied behind Biden and gave him the nomination. But the American University Black Swing Voter Project found that Biden is struggling with black voters under thirty, many of whom preferred Bernie Sanders. That, along with an alarming lack of enthusiasm about voting at all, had to worry Biden’s strategists, and the hope is clearly that Harris will jack up his support across the board with the black community.

There hasn’t been a ton of polling taken since the Harris pick and now we’re headed into the convention season, so we may never get a good idea of how she impacted the election at the outset. My suspicion is that it’s largely a wash. It will modestly increase the racial polarization of the election, which generally works in Republicans’ favor, especially in some key Senate races and some reach-pickups for the Dems in the House. But, overall, there may not be much impact in terms of overall votes. Harris could help carry Biden over the top in key states like Michigan and Wisconsin where black turnout can be decisive.

The tiebreaker is really in the suburbs. If Harris is well-received there, she’ll probably be a net-plus for Biden. It’s not how I would have looked to reshape the electorate for maximum safety and advantage, but there were plusses and minuses to every person Biden seriously considered, and Harris is probably a better choice than most of them. My problem isn’t pessimism in general, but rather a wariness with betting on the decency of the American electorate. I also see polarization as the enemy, because it fixes Trump’s floor at a pretty high level and it’s really important that we see his floor drop out.

I think people probably put too much thought into the veep choice anyway, as this is going to be mainly a referendum on Trump, and people don’t much care about Mike Pence. They probably don’t much care who’s running with Biden either.

What they do care about is that the country is a complete mess, and that’s why Trump is in very big trouble.