I guess somebody has to be a pessimist but the CNN poll still shows Biden ahead, and it really is an outlier. It’s the only concerning data point that came out this weekend, so I think it’s premature to say that the race has narrowed since Kamala Harris was put on the Democratic ticket.
I will say that I considered her a risky choice, mainly because this country has spent four years trying to prove it’s racist as fuck, but there are other data to support the idea that Harris will help shore up Biden’s relatively weak position with black voters. It’s a bit confusing because black voters absolutely rallied behind Biden and gave him the nomination. But the American University Black Swing Voter Project found that Biden is struggling with black voters under thirty, many of whom preferred Bernie Sanders. That, along with an alarming lack of enthusiasm about voting at all, had to worry Biden’s strategists, and the hope is clearly that Harris will jack up his support across the board with the black community.
There hasn’t been a ton of polling taken since the Harris pick and now we’re headed into the convention season, so we may never get a good idea of how she impacted the election at the outset. My suspicion is that it’s largely a wash. It will modestly increase the racial polarization of the election, which generally works in Republicans’ favor, especially in some key Senate races and some reach-pickups for the Dems in the House. But, overall, there may not be much impact in terms of overall votes. Harris could help carry Biden over the top in key states like Michigan and Wisconsin where black turnout can be decisive.
The tiebreaker is really in the suburbs. If Harris is well-received there, she’ll probably be a net-plus for Biden. It’s not how I would have looked to reshape the electorate for maximum safety and advantage, but there were plusses and minuses to every person Biden seriously considered, and Harris is probably a better choice than most of them. My problem isn’t pessimism in general, but rather a wariness with betting on the decency of the American electorate. I also see polarization as the enemy, because it fixes Trump’s floor at a pretty high level and it’s really important that we see his floor drop out.
I think people probably put too much thought into the veep choice anyway, as this is going to be mainly a referendum on Trump, and people don’t much care about Mike Pence. They probably don’t much care who’s running with Biden either.
What they do care about is that the country is a complete mess, and that’s why Trump is in very big trouble.
For me the most encouraging thing about the Harris pick is it means that Biden didn’t overthink it. (For overthinking, see McCain-Palin in 2008.)
A VP pick should be someone who 1) can do the job of president, 2) has run a national campaign before, and 3) has won a major statewide race. Basically, it’s a “do no harm” decision.
That’s what Biden did. Harris is a plausible president, ran for president herself so she’s not a rookie in dealing with the national media and all the stresses of a national campaign, and has major executive and legislative experience.
The fact that she may be able to help Biden solidify a key party constituency (Black voters) and reach a key persuadable constituency (suburban women) is a bonus.
New Washington Post poll is far more bullish on Biden-Harris than CNN.
Poll.
Encouraging poll for sure. But I cannot forget 2016. It haunts me, and I know Trump has not pulled out all the stops just yet. He will push the economy very hard and the stock market, which looks like it is headed back up, virus or not. A few good reports on unemployment, and it could be a brand new race. It looks like Biden has put together a very good coalition although I am not sure how stable it is. M4A seems to have bought the farm and AOC is not featured. So there are still some on the left who are a problem. Still I am encouraged. But what happens if the virus is clearly on the way out? And Putin weighs in? Worries I guess.
Why did you make me click on that stupid article? Now my whole day will be a little dumber.
It seems that some people are desperate for any polling movement that will support their preconceived notions. But if you look at the polling averages, things are remarkably steady: Biden +8, Trump approval 42%.
It’s the latter number that both drives me crazy (150000 are dead, how can 42% *still* support him?), but also makes me confident that there is no legitimate way that Trump can win. We have now thousands of polls on Trump’s popularity, and if there is one thing we know it is that the majority of the country does not like him. It seems impossible to believe that this will change in two months. So the only issues are (i) who comes out to vote, (ii) whether the votes will be legitimately counted or not.
I feel like people need to know statistics better. If Biden is really up +8 (as the averages say), and the standard deviation of any single poll is 3.0, then there’s about 1/10 chance that a single poll will produce an outcome of Biden being +4 or less
We’ve been locked in a Biden +8 (50-42) since mid-June, so there’s going to be a natural desire among the right-leaning members of the media to emphasize any poll that suggests otherwise.
All the women I know love the Kamala pick. Its energizing to have someone to vote for.