Perhaps no state in the union has a greater proclivity to support independent candidates than Maine. In 1974, Mainers elected James B. Longley as the first independent governor in the nation. They followed that up in the 1990s by electing Angus King to two terms as governor, and then to the U.S. Senate, where he presently serves as an independent who caucuses with the Democrats.
Independents don’t have to be victorious to have a big influence, however, as demonstrated in Maine’s 2010 and 2014 gubernatorial races. Independent candidate Eliot Cutler ran in a strong second place (35.9 percent) in 2010, besting Democrat Libby Mitchell (18.8 percent) and allowing Republican Paul Le Page to win with an anemic 37.6 plurality. Four years later, Cutler managed only 8.4 percent, but his 51,515 votes were more than the 34,000-vote difference between Gov. LePage and his Democratic challenger Mike Michaud.
LePage proved to be a very controversial governor, made more so by the fact he served two terms despite never winning the support of a majority of the state electorate. To avoid a similar outcome in the future, grassroots organizers put a ranked choice voting initiative on the ballot in 2016, and it was approved. First used in the 2018 midterms, it had immediate results in the state’s 2nd Congressional District. Under the old system, incumbent Republican Bruce Poliquin would have defeated his Democratic challenger, Jared Golden, 46.3 percent to 45.6. Under the ranked choice system, since neither candidate had achieved a majority, support for the independent (third and fourth place) candidates was reassigned based on those voters’ second choice. This resulted in Golden upsetting the incumbent by a 50.62 percent to 49.38 margin.
In September, the U.S. Supreme Court approved Maine’s use of ranked choice voting in the 2020 presidential election, but surveys in the state suggest that third parties won’t have much influence this time. For example, a Data for Progress pollin the field from September 23 to September 30 found Joe Biden leading Donald Trump 53 percent to 39, with Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgenson pulling two percent and Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins pulling only one.
Maine, along with Nebraska, is one of only two states that awards some Electoral College votes based on congressional district rather than statewide winners. In 2016, Donald Trump lost Maine but won the 2nd District, and gained one vote as a result. The two most recent polls on the district differ, with one showing Trump up by 8 points and the other showing Biden leading by three. Without ranked choice voting, even an historically low level of third party votes might change the outcome there.
This is true nationwide any place there’s more than two candidates on the ballot in a closely contested contest. The latest national Pew Research poll, in the field September 30 to October 5, shows Jorgenson and Hawkins pulling a combined 5 percent of the vote, but most other recent surveys have them pulling closer to two. The impact of third parties is more likely to be felt in 2020 in Senate and congressional races.
Keep an eye on the Senate contest in South Carolina where incumbent Republican Lindsey Graham is locked in a dead-heat race against charismatic black Democrat Jaime Harrison. The latest survey of the race, taken by GBAO Strategies from September 23 to September 28, has Harrison beating Graham 48 percent to 47, with Constitution Party candidate Bill Bledsoe pulling a potentially game-changing three percent. Perhaps in response to this poll’s results, Bledsoe was convinced to drop out of the race on October 1 and endorse Graham, but his name will remain on the ballot.
Bledsoe, a veterinarian from Spartanburg, gained some national attention in 2016 when he ran for U.S. Senate on the Constitution and Libertarian Party ballot lines against incumbent Republican Tim Scott and Democrat Thomas Dixon. He ultimately got just two percent of the vote, but he showed a dramatic flair as he visited courthouses throughout the state, often carrying a Revolutionary War-era musket.
Candidate for US Senate Bill Bledsoe got his message out Saturday by asking people to bring their guns and rally outside the Greenville County Courthouse.
The group had their flags high and guns at their sides as they gathered in downtown Greenville.
“Our rights are being taken,” says Bledsoe, “Our rights are being stolen, right and left, from a criminal government.”
Upset by what he calls an intrusive government, the candidate for the Constitution and Libertarian parties says he organized the event to promote freedom and the right to assemble peacefully.
“The purpose is to show people how to work with police to get our rights back,” Bledsoe says.
Sen. Graham was issued a statement thanking Bledsoe for his support, “We agree on numerous issues like increasing the number of conservative judges on the bench, reducing the national debt, upholding the sanctity of life and having a strong military.”
It will no doubt help Graham that Bledsoe has endorsed him, but he still has to worry that voters with select him when they enter to voting booth.
Graham’s predicament helps explain why the two major parties have invested so many resources in 2020 to either keep or remove third party candidates from the ballot. The Democrats have had plenty of success, and not just with Kanye West. Green Party candidates have been removed in several states, including Wisconsinand Montana, largely because they were stalking horses backed by the Republican Party.
One victory was wiped out when the conservative Texas Supreme Court reversed a lower court ruling and put three Green Party candidates back on the ballot. Yet, that court also rejected a Republican-led effort to disqualify 44 Libertarian candidates for failing to pay their filing fees. Elsewhere, the Republicans unsuccessfully sought to strike the Libertarian candidate for U.S. Senate in Oregon.
These efforts wouldn’t be worth any money, time or energy in Maine because ranked choice voting solves the spoiler effect. A voter there can vote for the Green Party candidate as their first choice safe in the knowledge that it will ultimately count for their second choice, Joe Biden. Likewise, a disaffected Republican can avoid helping Biden and still register their displeasure with Trump by making the president their second choice behind Libertarian Jo Jurgenson.
In the rest of the country, however, third party candidates can still change outcomes despite not being at all competitive. Instead of being a legitimate alternative to the two major parties, they’re coopted and manipulated by them in an effort to mislead the voters and turn losing major candidates into winners.
It seems very few people will vote third party in the presidential election this year, but that doesn’t mean we won’t feel their influence. Whether it’s a vote in the Electoral College, the U.S. Senate race in South Carolina, or some little-noticed congressional race, the lack of ranked choice voting outside of Maine could distort the will of the people.
Adding: in Maine there’s a good chance ranked choice voting plays a role in the US Senate race. Currently both Susan Collins (R) and Sara Gideon (D) are polling below 50%. The second (and potentially, third) choice votes of the two independent candidates (libertarian Max Linn and leftist Lisa Savage) could well decide that election.
It’s getting ahead of ourselves to think about a ranked choice voting system for presidential elections, but if there ever were to be one, it would almost certainly drastically weaken and/or split the Democratic and Republican parties…probably resulting in a system with 3-6 major parties that rarely, if ever, command a legislative majority, and thus have to form coalition governments.
I’m from Australia but have lived here for 5+ years. We have what you call “ranked choice voting” back home for every race including the Senate. Ballot papers can get HUGE so there is an option to distribute your preferences according to the party (so just put 1 next to the party and you’re done). For the house we number candidates 1 through N. Combined with a weaker senate overall compared to the US system, and no elected president, bills can get passed a bit more easily. We also have compulsory voting, and elections being on Saturday, these are probably some of the most progressive ideas for voting.
And that’s great, and should be done here , and it’s not even an issue for most Aussies. But here’s the thing: it doesn’t make Australia some progressive champion. We still have a rabid right wing that runs the country , repealed a carbon tax , and imprisons those who come by boat seeking refuge in concentration camps. In my estimation, Rupert Murdoch is to blame. So yes, third parties with preferential voting systems is a good goal. But championing progressive policy still has to go on.
Ranked-choice voting would be amazing. It doesn’t solve all problems, but it removes the spoiler affect that third parties have.
I believe that if people can vote for a Bernie Sanders (1) and Joe Biden (2), then more people who stay home would come out to vote their real preference. It won’t make the country into a Progressive Utopia, but first-past-the-post elections are absolute dogshit ways to run elections.