As Al Gore and Hillary Clinton can attest, a Democratic presidential contender shouldn’t feel comfortable with their position in the national polls unless it’s a substantial lead because winning the popular vote is not good enough to win the election. A Democrat who is getting beaten badly in the national polls has to hope that the polls are simply wrong, and wrong in a big way. That’s where President Joe Biden is sitting right now because the newest New York Times/Siena poll has him losing to Trump 43 percent to 48 percent.
Only one in four voters thinks the country is moving in the right direction. More than twice as many voters believe Mr. Biden’s policies have personally hurt them as believe his policies have helped them. A majority of voters think the economy is in poor condition. And the share of voters who strongly disapprove of Mr. Biden’s handling of his job has reached 47 percent, higher than in Times/Siena polls at any point in his presidency.
Based on those survey results, Biden is more likely to be ridden out of the White House on a rail than reelected. And, frankly, he’s just lucky to have Trump as an opponent. Trump will only beat him like a drum, whereas Nikki Haley would blow him into little tiny bits and eject him into space.
Nikki Haley, Mr. Trump’s Republican rival, who has made the case that he will lose in November, leads Mr. Biden by double the margin of the former president: a hypothetical 45 percent to 35 percent.
How much does this have to do specifically with President Biden? People are worried about his age. Maybe they’ve heard enough noise about Hunter Biden to think the president is corrupt. These things wouldn’t seem to explain why people think Biden’s policies have hurt them personally or why they think an objectively good and recovering economy is actually quite poor.
Some people are going to default to questioning the poll. Didn’t these same pollsters predict a red wave in the midterms that didn’t materialize? What about their sample? Is it representative?
And that’s fine. I have some questions myself. I can believe some of the following, but…
But over and over, the Times/Siena poll revealed how Mr. Trump has cut into more traditional Democratic constituencies while holding his ground among Republican groups. The gender gap, for instance, is no longer benefiting Democrats. Women, who strongly favored Mr. Biden four years ago, are now equally split, while men gave Mr. Trump a nine-point edge. The poll showed Mr. Trump edging out Mr. Biden among Latinos, and Mr. Biden’s share of the Black vote is shrinking, too.
I think it’s probably true that the Democratic Party is losing non-college educated voters without respect to race. And that would show up with the Latino vote moving to Trump. But is it plausible that the gender gap has disappeared completely? That would be shocking considering how so many women feel about the Republicans’ assault on reproductive freedom and choice.
But like I said at the top, to feel good about the election, Biden would have to be winning in a poll like this by more than Trump is winning. If Biden is losing the popular vote to Trump at all, let alone by five points, he’s going to get slaughtered in the Electoral College.
So, is it time to panic?
I think it’s time to get serious about figuring out what is real and what is not. Biden doesn’t have to accept the nomination. He can nominate someone else. The public doesn’t want to choose between too super old dudes. We could still give them a young, vibrant option. Personally, I’d put Gavin Newsom in the ring.
But I’m not arguing that this choice has to be made now. It has to be considered, by Biden. He needs to have a contingency in his back pocket. Because if he can’t beat Trump, he needs to let someone else try. And if he can’t figure out why he’s so unpopular and fix it, he isn’t beating Trump.
If voters are dissatisfied by the direction of the country, then replacing Biden reinforces that they are correct to feel this way and they should therefore vote for an alternative. It is indeed shocking that women might go for Trump again… indeed almost incredible. But it could be that Trump is able to redirect the abortion debate away from himself.
I don’t believe that Biden’s low numbers are primarily about his age. That’s what people are identifying as a logical reason for an illogical situation. So I wouldn’t predict that Newsom or some other candidate would do significantly better. I could be wrong about that though.
Fundamentally, Trump’s strength is in his cult of personality. He can do no wrong and there is nothing wrong with him. Ever. Democrats need some of that, and unfortunately I think we’re incapable of that level of conformity and cohesion.
“It is indeed shocking that women might go for Trump again…”
When did women “go for Trump” the first time?
I recall discussion of white women having at least broke even for Trump in 2016.
More bad news.
What’s happening right now is really distressing. No one on the Republican side is worried about Trump’s old age, that he committed treason against our country and other crimes. Joe Biden and the Democrats certainly have their work cut out for them and will have to remind Americans loud and often what is at stake, and say it direct and plain. If Americans still choose Trump over Biden, they should be very aware of what that says about themselves – they’re not the patriots they think they are. They don’t love the freedoms of our democracy and instead chose to burn it all down.
It’s entirely possible that it’s my age and the world has changed so much that what I “know” is just plain wrong.
It’s also entirely possible that polls in February aren’t predictive of November votes. Dukakis led Bush by 17 points in July ’88. Perot led Bush by 8 and Clinton by 14 points in June ’92. Romney led Obama by 2-4 points in early October ’12 polls.
This isn’t 1968 for the Democrats or 1992 for the Republicans where the party is badly split over its incumbent president. If it were, Biden wouldn’t be winning 80+% of the vote in every primary, and Harris/Newsom/Whitmer/etc. wouldn’t be polling worse than Biden against Trump/Haley.
This is the kind of situation where the late, great Molly Ivins would remind Democrats that “you got to dance with them what brung you”. Trailing by 5 points in a poll 6 months before the election? That’s what campaigns are for.
Seems like we’re buying into the 2022 red wave again. NYTimes helped to push that narrative then too.
The major news corporations have been so hyper-focused on Biden’s age, his gaffes, cognition, as well as inflation, etc., with almost nothing about Trump’s age, his repeated incoherent ramblings, potential dementia symptoms, etc., that it’s no wonder those polled are so sullen. A lot is going so well and yet most of us have been trained to focus on the negatives. Ezra Klein’s impassioned plea for a brokered DNC convention came across more as concern trolling when he published that column in NYT a few weeks ago, at least from my perspective. But then again, the chaos that would likely ensue from a brokered convention would be great for ratings, clicks, and subscriptions, and so would another Trump presidency. Biden’s quiet competence on so many matters is a bit boring for the media to cover. Democrats are in disarray is just so much easier.
It’s a shame too as Biden has exceeded my expectations during his term in office. Yes, I wish we had a younger incumbent running, but that shipped sailed a long time ago. So too did the chance to become effectively a lame duck (that would need to have happened last summer in order to get a viable replacement candidate ready for this November). I’ll be another commenter here who will endorse that Molly Ivin’s quote (you’ve gotta dance with them what brung you). She knew what she was talking about, and we’d be wise to follow her advice. He’s still quite capable to handle the job, and if he does die or become incapacitated, we have a competent VP ready to step in.
If Biden can’t beat Trump, it’s way too fucking late.
Adding: We are tiny people in a big world powered by forces beyond our control. In 1930s Germany, it didn’t matter how virtuous an anti-fascist minority was, nor did it matter what tactics and strategies they attempted; they got swamped. Jews, Romani, homosexuals, communists, socialists, minorities of all kinds, got liquidated and exploited by the tens of millions.
Sometimes all you can do is your best, and hope that it’s enough. If it’s not, then keep doing your best in the (perhaps futile) hope that a next generation will do better. (See, for example, Black leaders in the Jim Crow South raising up the post WW II civil rights generation.)
Until and unless Trump wins the November election, we keep doing the best we can to defeat him. If he wins, then we do the best we can to defeat him and his movement. It’s not easy, but it is (imho) pretty simple. What else are we going to do? Give up?
See also: Albert Camus’ “The Myth of Sisyphus”, written in the midst of WW II: https://masscommons.wordpress.com/2024/03/04/the-myth-of-sisyphus/
I’m 100% against giving up. See my multiple posts where I encourage liberals to safely own and operate firearms.
When fascism comes, believing you can rely on the police is a hilarious and tragic delusion. Not to mention police departments have been infiltrated with fascists.
Owning a firearm and knowing how to safely store it and operate it is just a backup.
Polls don’t matter. The popular vote doesn’t matter. Just turnout. So that’s Step 1.
If Step 1 fails, don’t just speak softly. Carry a big stick.
Marcy Wheeler (emptywheel) says it well.
Marcy Wheeler (emptywheel) says it well. We are participating in an information opp the more we focus on Biden’s age, rather than his experience and policies (that latter of which are fair game for disagreement).
There Is Something Wrong at the New York Times