The FBI has released a photo of the man they suspect of shooting and killing Charlie Kirk on Wednesday. He’s white, probably in his twenties, and was wearing a baseball cap, sunglasses, a long sleeve black shirt with an American flag theme and blue jeans. His hands are clenched but he has no weapon. As of this writing he is still at large.

The narrative they’ve laid out is that he took the shot from the top of a building well over 100 yards from Kirk (there is video evidence to support this), and then jumped off the building and escaped into a neighborhood. They found an “older model imported Mauser .30-06 caliber bolt actions rifle wrapped in a towel” in a nearby wood. The location corresponds with the path he took.

In the rifle’s chamber they found the spent cartridge from the lethal shot, and they also found three unspent cartridges in the magazine. These cartridges had “engraved wording on them expressing transgender and anti-fascist ideology.” (It appears, they may already be walking this story back).

I’ve now corresponded with a half dozen people about these allegations, and every single one of them has expressed extreme skepticism. I can break this down into two basic reactions.

The first is that the engraved cartridges story is complete bullshit and totally fabricated. The second is that the whole thing was a set up from the beginning and the right just killed one of their own in order to turn Kirk into a Horst Wessel-style martyr and further their fascist aims.

Part of the problem here is the perception that everything is too neat and tidy. Kirk was killed in the midst of a conversation with a student about transgender mass-shooters. Now we’re told that the shooter, who chose that exact moment to fire the shot, was motivated by “transgender ideology.”

This obviously invites immediate speculation that the timing was coordinated. Was the student who asked the question part of the plot? Imaginations will run wild. After all, it’s an awfully big coincidence. The shooter was almost definitely too far away to hear the conversation but maybe he knew what the student would ask?

Another problem is that the Trump administration, and especially the FBI under Kash Patel, has no credibility on the left. It is not a leap for the people I know to believe they will make things up or even commit murder.

But there is another possibility here. The shooter could indeed have engraved these words on the cartridges in imitation of what Luigi Mangione did when he murdered UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson. And his purpose may have been to kill Kirk and have the country blame the left and supporters of transgender rights. But he could have acted completely alone with no coordination with anyone.

What seems most doubtful to me is that all three of the following are true: this person acted alone, was genuinely motivated by transgender ideology” and wanted everyone to blame the killing on a supporter of transgender rights. That would require them to be an idiot because this murder does not advance transgender rights.

Perhaps there will be more clarity if this suspect is identified or apprehended. It could be that they are an idiot. Either way, if they truly are on the left, they started a war without asking any of us if we approved and were ready for the fight. That makes them a reckless asshole.

Charlie Kirk was a dangerous, racist, hateful and extremely effective fascist. In fact, the best case against the conspiracy that he was sacrificed by the right is that he was too valuable to give up.

As for those committed to using violence in the anti-fascist cause, Kirk was indeed quite valuable to the enemy, but starting a war you can’t win is a bad idea best illustrated by the current housing situation in Gaza. This murder has invited a reaction of overwhelming and merciless force. This is an administration that took over the entire DC police force and brought in national guardsmen from around the country simply because one former DOGE employee was assaulted by 15-year olds.

Here is what Trump promised for people like me who call Kirk a fascist.

For years, those on the radical left have compared wonderful Americans like Charlie to Nazis and the world’s worst mass murderers and criminals. This kind of rhetoric is directly responsible for the terrorism that we’re seeing in our country today, and it must stop right now.

My administration will find each and every one of those who contributed to this atrocity and to other political violence, including the organizations that fund it and support it…

He has the Pentagon, the FBI, ICE, and a horde of willing stormtroopers. What do we have? Chuck Schumer?

So, no, I don’t think any intelligent person on the left would have started this fight. But I will allow there are plenty of stupid people on the left, and many insane people of all ideologies and political persuasions.

I did not celebrate when Brian Thompson was murdered and I am not happy that Kirk was murdered. This is primarily because my morals haven’t been so warped by frustration and injustice that I’ve abandoned my standards. But it’s also because it makes the struggle against fascism harder and puts all of us at great risk with no reward to compensate for it.

I’d also like to point out that there’s no Normandy Invasion coming to save us, so this battle can only be won with brains, not brawn.

In the meantime, I foresee a potent field for conspiracy theorists in the Kirk murder that could well last decades or more.