Ron Brownstein makes a startling, but happy observation. Given expected demographic changes, if different ethnic groups vote in the same percentages twelve years from now as they did last November, what will be the result?
These trends point toward trouble for the GOP if it cannot attract more minorities, especially Hispanics, and reverse the recent Democratic inroads among well-educated whites.
The best way to illustrate that prospect is to pitch the thought experiment forward 12 years. Imagine that the major demographic groups voted as they did in 2008, but cast a share of the vote equal to their expected share of the population in 2020. (For argument’s sake, let’s divide whites among college and noncollege voters in the same proportions as today.) In that scenario, Obama beats McCain by nearly 14 points — almost twice as much as in 2008.
Voter preferences are not static, but they are sticky. A built in fourteen-point advantage is so large that it would be difficult to lose. What I can say with a high degree of confidence is that the GOP cannot overcome such a demographic disadvantage using their current arsenal of issues and rhetoric. What passes for mainstream Republicanism today (Hannity, Limbaugh, Coulter) must, by necessity, be shunted to the margins of American politics. If it is not, there is little doubt that the GOP will no longer be viable as a pillar of the two-party system.
Personally, I think it is likely that the GOP will survive, but more through organic change than concerted strategic efforts. In the short-term I expect more traditionally reliable red states to move into the purple or light-blue column. In 2012, it’s likely that Obama will win states that he narrowly lost (like Montana, the Dakotas, Arizona, Georgia, Missouri) and that he will become competitive in others that he lost more convincingly (West Virginia, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, Mississippi).
I don’t think the GOP will survive in a recognizable form.
Very good news.
One thing that argues against GOP survival is the bulk of the media in the hands of five conglomerates. They are the sponsors of Hannity, Limbaugh and Coulter, Inc.
Are these commentators crucial to Repub self-identification? I would argue, yes. Is this sponsorship supported to aid the Repubs? Or is it to entertain and reap the cash?
If the former, they will be replaced and a strategy for Republican survival will emerge.
If the latter, ha, ha.
All this means is that the GOP will simply find another scapegoat group to pile the hate on, and so far it’s Muslims.
How long do you suppose it’ll take before we start hearing how “Muslims are taking good American jobs” or other such garbage?
I think the GOP in the twenty teens will be the same GOP of Ins-hannity, Coulergeist, Bill-O and Malkinvania.
They’ll just be a lot smaller.
I don’t know, though. Every now and then I try to stomach an awful right-wing radio show locally just to hear what they’re spewing about. But last night, they had on a Muslim cleric, explaining the Muslim religion, and taking callers. I don’t know if he persuaded anyone he wasn’t some slick terrorist, but the guy was an articulate defender of his religion, and must have opened a few minds – those ready to be opened..!
One has to wonder if a right-wing radio listener has a mind to be opened.
More bad news for angry, old white men.
what about the redistricting going on- not sure of the details but I’ve heard it involves several states.
as far as the GOP “surviving”, I’m more concerned about the credibility/long term viability of the democratic party.
the democrats had everything going for them in 2000, blew that POTUS election, then proceeded to blow the 2004 election- in spite of the handwriting already on the wall regarding just how horrible/corrupt bu$hco was.
clearly this shows massive weakness.
then there’s the what? 22 percent approval rating for Congress? that’s hardly a strength either.
redistricting takes place after the 2010 census. It will be in effect for the 2012 elections.
BooMan, you have a way of really making my day. Thanks for the article and the message that the Republican Party, in present form, is politically doomed. Who knows but maybe Hannity, Savage, Malkin, Colter, O’Reilly and the fat and freakish Limbaugh are on the road to obscurity. What an absolutely charming thought.
Before the meltdown, they could have dropped their Pro-Life agenda at any time and likely had very long term rule, without all the evil tactics.
Now, no one believes their brand of economic conservatism is either conservative or good economics.
Here’s a good analysis on the future demographics by Billmon:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/7/205533/4172/462/590433
I think he does a good job of running the numbers.
Which also reminds me of a previous Billmon post (when he had his Whisky Bar) where he speculated that the GOP would go the way of the Whig party and the Democratic party would be the right-wing party of the future. I think that’s a possibility and I certainly see the trend. I can see it happening. As the Democratic party stands in as the corporate and elite party and doesn’t respond to the growing progressivism of the country (for lack of a better word) those on the left will look to another party.
The Democrats have become the corporate party–yesterday they meet with Citibank (after the Federales have just given them 100s of billions in loans to Citi with nary a second look–unlike the loans to the auto industry) to decide what bankruptcy policy should look like. They didn’t meet with the average Americans and try to fix a bankruptcy system that is very punitive on regular people and already very good for Citibank. No, they met with Citibank.
Also, other societal changes will leave the Democratic party behind.
1) the war on drugs. Almost 1/2 of adult Americans have committed a crime by using illegal drugs. Our last two presidents have admitted to using cocaine and the last three marijuana. It is quite astounding that there are no politicians arguing for decriminilization considering we imprison the most people on the planet for something most Americans do. Eventually people have to start getting upset that their family members are locked up and we spend such huge sums on locking people up for things most people do. No?
Before 2007 what did the average American know about bankruptcy? That said, taking orders from Citi is not a good idea.
Anyhow, the real point here is that a lot of immigrants are from very socially conservative countries. If the GOP weren’t so hell-bent on demonizing them for the skin/national origin, they might have been able to pick up the second generation on social issues.
If Obama has a successful first term (not a given, considering the hole Bush has left us in both domestic and abroad), I could easily see Obama winning Texas.