I think some people are getting a little carried away with the idea that bipartisanship has broken out on Capitol Hill. But that doesn’t mean that this Congress will be as unproductive as the last one. Setting aside the crisis over the sequester, there are bills that have a decent chance of becoming law with bipartisan support. I think the president will feel satisfied that he had a good year if he can pass the following:
1. A renewal of the Violence Against Women Act- that this is even in question is pathetic, but it will probably get done.
2. Gun violence control- a bill that creates a universal background check (closing the gun show loophole) and bans high-capacity magazines seems possible and should be considered a success.
3. Cybersecurity- this is an unsexy subject, but it’s important and it will probably get done.
4. Immigration reform- this is the biggie. If it passes with a pathway to citizenship, the president will be able to claim a giant victory.
The president wants to work on election reform, education, climate, and transportation, but I don’t know if he can get anything worthwhile passed through Congress.
Much of the oxygen on Capitol Hill will continue to be used up battling over the budget, the sequester, and tax reform.
One thing I’d like to see is a push to normalize relations with Cuba. Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) has just taken over the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, but he is also embroiled in scandal. Meanwhile, the other Cuban senator, Marco Rubio, could use some foreign policy accomplishment to bolster his presidential ambitions. The stars may be aligned just right for the two of them to come together and work with the State Department to end our 54-year stand off. They would both earn well-deserved and much needed praise.
What to you expect to see this year?
One thing I’d like to see is a push to normalize relations with Cuba. Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) has just taken over the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, but he is also embroiled in scandal. Meanwhile, the other Cuban senator, Marco Rubio, could use some foreign policy accomplishment to bolster his presidential ambitions.
Both of them are captured by the dead-end Cuba lobby. No chance relations get normalized while both of those clowns are involved.
Forget our intentionally paralyzed and utterly worthless national legislature. It will remain ground up to its axles in the bog of braindead “conservatism”.
Obama will have one historic decision to make this year and Congress will have nothing to do with it: whether he will approve the Keystone Tar Sands pipeline and allow the irrevocable destruction of the planet’s climate to occur, or whether he will actually act to stop the monstrous fossil fuel oligopoly from wrecking the planet forever.
That is the only decision posterity will have the slightest interest in when it looks at the year 2013. Obama’s legacy will be determined by this decision.
I expect more hurricanes. Maybe we’ll get one in Maine this year. Whether that means we’ll ever be able to do anything about climate change is another question.
Too many conservative hurdles, little chance of passing proposed bill.
“On January 2, 2013, the Senate’s 2012 reauthorization of VAWA was not brought up for a vote in the House. While the bill
was not reauthorized, its provisions (as enacted in the 2005 reauthorization) remain in effect.”
All four of those have opportunities for Congressional mischief.
For the Violence Against Women Act, it is important to watch what gets traded to get it through. Or whether compromises either gut it in practice or put in violations of civil liberties sure to be struck down by the courts.
The universal background check mischief depends on what the details are about what will be checked, where the information will come from, how it will be checked for accuracy, how inaccuracies can be appealed, and how integrated the databases that check backgrounds will be with other government databases. This also develops a new cybersecurity issue with regard to data integrity. And Boyoh am I glad that Holy Joe doesn’t have a hand in this one.
Cybersecurity can be the vehicle by which the motion picture industry and record industry capture the public internet for profit. Or how everyone’s keystrokes start getting monitored by the government. Lots of possible mischief from legislators that don’t understand the technological issues advised by contractors who want the huge cybersecurity spending bonanza. They are the experts, right?
Immigration reform is another one that can hide lots of mischief, especially in the securing the borders part of the bill. DHS is already asserting authority to confiscate and review computers at the border and for a distance 100 miles inside the border. What else will be tacked on this bill in the name of border security? My guess is the the chips to be traded are a path to citizenship and intrusive monitoring of employer hiring of undocumented workers.
My sense is that relations with Cuba cannot politically be normalized until Fidel is buried. A more likely breakthrough is Iran if Kerry and others go for it. It might have to wait until Ahmedinejad gets replaced by the election this year.
To get Cuba normalization done requires a complete breakdown of GOP discipline on the issue.
The important question is whether there will be appropriations passed this year that aren’t continuing resolutions. And actually having appropriations completed before the beginning of the fiscal year that they are for would be a huge miracle.
I see more turmoil as a result of failure to move forward on many domestic and foreign policy issues. Major evironmental, police brutality, anti-privatization, and ant-Wall Street actions that will provoke discussions of freedom of assembly and freedom of speech once again. The targeted killing and drone issue is not going away. And there will be controversy, real or fabricated, as the regulations for the health care exchanges get rolled out state-by-state in preparation for next year. Likely our expedited departure from Afghanistan will not be noticed except for a “last troops out” announcement.
I rated your comment a “4 for excellence”, but I am still looking for the other pull-down list so I can also rate this a “5 for depressing”.
Hope cyber security doesn’t get done.
Tonight OFA is having a conference call with all of us who were National Team Leaders so I should have a good sense of the schedule for our legislative advocacy.
Typical – no action on the jobs horizon. Did you know that the people of the United States used to have a strong lobbying organization? It was called the House of Representatives.