I don’t know if Senator Susan Collins of Maine is going to give up her seat to run for governor. I don’t know because even she doesn’t seem to know. But here’s what I do know. The Democrats would stand a damn good chance of winning her seat the next time it came up for election, and they ought to be hoping against hope that she takes her ball and goes home.
But that’s not the reaction I’m seeing. Here’s the reaction of endangered Democrat Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota:
Sen. Heidi Heitkamp was watching TV recently when she saw a report that Susan Collins was considering a run for Maine governor and soliciting advice on the decision.
The North Dakota Democrat quickly shot a text message to her Republican colleague: “Don’t do it.”
…“She is [up in the air]. And I think she had hoped to make a decision before this,” said Heitkamp, who herself weighed retirement before announcing this year she’d run for a second term. “I desperately hope she doesn’t run.”
Here’s the reaction of endangered Democrat Claire McCaskill of Missouri:
“She’s so important to the country here,” said Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.). “We don’t have enough folks like her.”
Sen. Angus King, an independent from Collins’s state of Maine who caucuses with the Democrats, is reportedly “begging her not to leave.” And, while endangered Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia isn’t encouraging Collins to stay, that is only because he would “never deny somebody who has that opportunity to do something good for their state.” In other words, he thinks Collins would help the people of Maine if she served as their governor.
I guess these reactions speak well of Collins, at least to the degree that she’s earned the respect of several colleagues from across the aisle. But these Democrats are currently laboring in the minority. Picking up Collins’s seat could easily place them in the majority where they might actually be able to accomplish something.
I understand that moderate Democrats don’t relish the prospect of working in an environment where there are absolutely no moderate Republicans left, but the trade off here seems obvious.
It’s enough to make me think that these Democrats feel safer in the opposition than they do in the majority. And they could be right about that. As it stands, they don’t have to explain away their votes for controversial Democratic legislation. They can oppose a mostly unpopular administration and a very unpopular Republican congressional leadership without a whole lot of risk to themselves.
So, is that what this is? They’d rather have a modestly safer seat than be in a position to actually hold hearings or write legislation?
Perhaps Dems see Collins as leverage, a moderate who is open to actual dialogue between parties. She has shown herself to be open in the past, and Republicans know she’ll stand her ground when she believes strongly in something.
Having the seat yourself is better leverage than someone from the other party who occasionally flips. Plus a majority gives you committee control and control of what legislation gets introduced. I think booman’s second possibility is correct. In opposition our caucus can appear more unified than it really is, just like with the Republicans and Obamacare. Taking power is a moment of truth.
I think so. She is one of a vanishing breed of sort-of-moderate republicans. God knows the country could use more, not fewer (as a fraction of the R. party). The remaining R’s are that much crazier in the aggregate when moderating voices leave their ranks.
I’m worried that you’re right, and these folks don’t actually want to make hard choices that would help the country. One would hope that, if they all get re-elected next year, they might feel safer sticking their necks out in the early part of their terms, when they have a lot of time left before they have to answer to anyone (like Pat Toomey of our own state of PA is doing on the other side).
OTOH, there are a couple of other possibilities. One is that they want her around for the next couple of years instead of whatever nutball LePage would put up to finish her term. The other is that they like having someone else in the middle of the political spectrum as an antidote to the intense polarization in the current Congress.
Of course. It couldn’t be because these senators are her friends, people who respect her, and people who believe her an asset to the Senate.
It must be that they are traitors to the Democratic Cause.
Jesus…
Well, in a word: Yes. Three more: they ARE traitors.
Imagine, if you will, a defensive end allowing the other team to score a TD because he’s friends with the guy running the ball.
Or a boxer throwing a fight because he’s pals outside the ring with his opponent?
In fact, Debbie Wassermsn-Schulz did EXACTLY this in Florida during the Bush years because she was friends with the GOP incumbent.
Do you understand how politics works?
You were expecting profiles in courage?
Let’s face it; politics is a wasteland. Getting elected is damn hard and, once there, people want to hold on. To quote Mel Brooks:
I’m sure many of them would like to accomplish something worthwhile to the extent practicable. But practicable does not include getting turned out of office. There were a few Congresspeople who voted for the ACA knowing they were likely to lose their seats as a result. Those folks deserve an award. But the award is deserved because such acts are unfortunately heroic and uncommon.
could they be worried about who the crazy Maine governor would appoint as an interim Senator? I think if I was in the Senate that would be a real concern
I certainly agree that a Democrat in the Maine seat is better than Susan Collins, but I do not understand one of the premises of Martin’s argument.
The vulnerable moderate Democrats are surely less vulnerable in the majority rather than the minority. Chuck Schumer would not make them take a tough vote on a piece of legislation he knows is going nowhere in the House. It is Mitch McConnell who would love to put a Claire McCaskill on the spot with a tough vote.
Whatever the reason for moderate Democrats to reach out, I don’t believe it is because they are afraid of Chuck Schumer and a majority.
If I had to guess, I’d guess that Schumer asked them to reach out. Who trusts the Republicans? If the Republicans can’t agree on a budget – not a bad bet – we could see the 2017 budget turned into a shell to try Obamacare repeal again. I would expect that if Collins is gone and McCain’s health has a wobble.
Senator Collins finds it impossible to be a serious Republican Senator under current circumstance and really wouldn’t mind too much if Democrats took that seat. The appropriate response is, “Thank you, Susan.”
I just looked it up. Evidently, the Dems would not have to wait until the term was up. The seat would go up for grabs at the next general election, 2018. It would normally come up in 2020, I believe.
http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vacancies-in-the-united-states-senate.aspx
That’s good to know.
Still the loss of one vote right now could do a lot of damage.
Collins doesn’t have to resign her seat in the Senate to run for governor.
If she wins, it will be in November, 2018. And the next general election after that will be 2020.
So the lame duck governor would appoint?
Silly question, I guess. Of course, he would.
I don’t see any way LePage doesn’t have a window between Collin’s resignation and her inauguration during which he could appoint her replacement.
Even if there is a way around it (and Collins chooses to take it) she’d appoint the replacement, so we still have a Republican until 2020, although possibly one in the Collins mold. Then again, don’t count on it – we are talking Susan Collins here.
If Collins leaves, doesn’t Maine’s crazy governor LePage get to appoint a temporary replacement? Possibly meaning bye bye Obamacare?
That depends on whether she’d be required to resign her Senate seat in order to make a gubernatorial run. If so, then yeah, that would be a real risk – in which case I can understand the “better the devil we know” mindset of some of our more moderate Senators.
This seems so glaringly obvious it hardly merits mentioning.
There’s no way to truly judge this situation without first understanding (1) whether Collins must resign in order to run for governor, and (2) Maine law as regards replacing a senator who resigns.
Possibly meaning hello Senator LePage.
What can be more Democratic than begging a Republican to stay in a Senate seat that you should be able to win?
Oh, I know, reappointing conservative and Rand acolytes to chair the Fed when there’s a Democratic president. And putting Republicans in charge of the national security apparatus. Also, too, of course, appointing a Bush DoJ guy to head up the national police force so he has the opportunity to sabotage your presidential candidates chances and tip the Supreme Court balance in a radically conservative direction for at least a generation.
The Republicans are not a political party they are a cult. The Democrats aren’t a political party either, it’s like a neighborhood club where the guiding principle is `let’s pretend there are no consequences for not paying attention to anything important other than our fee fees.’
The term Democratic backbone is an oxymoron, which is probably why you never hear it spoken out loud.
Just a question, if Susan Collins ran for governor and won, would she name her own replacement? Or would LePage name her replacement? Because there will still be two years left in her term.
The answer to that question might be the answer to yours, too.
Well, sure, if you just assume a Democrat would replace Collins the last thing you would want is her hanging around in the Senate.
But of course there’s a risk of a Republican replacing Collins, and just about any possible Republican replacement would be worse. Maine elected a racist wingnut loon as governor.
Right now Collins is part of the Democrat’s blocking majority against a lot of very ugly Republican legislation.
It’s understandable to me Collins’ senate colleagues might be wary of rolling the dice.
Democrats cannot win this seat in 2018, because her term is not up until 2020.
So either Susan Collins will remain, or if she wins the Governorship, her replacement will be picked by the Republican Governor. The best option Democrats have to take that seat in 2018 is for her to leave her party and caucus with them instead.