Most of the people that do Senate predictions play it pretty safe. Until they see a poll that shows a challenger well ahead, they tend to keep races in the ‘lean incumbent’ or ‘toss-up’ category. But I don’t need any polls to tell me that the Republicans in the Senate are set up for a world of pain. I’ve seen what polls are out there, and they inform my opinion, but I’m going with my gut here. No toss-ups or leans, just flat-out predictions for who will win.
1. Mark Warner of Virginia
2. Tom Udall of New Mexico
3. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire
4. Mark Begich of Alaska
5. Mark Udall of Colorado
6. Ronnie Musgrove of Mississippi
7. Jeff Merkley of Oregon (but not Novick)
8. Al Franken of Minnesota
9. Kay Hagan of North Carolina
10. Rick Noriega of Texas
Right now, I think all 10 of these seats are more likely to fall to the Democrats than not. But that’s not all. The following contenders will have plenty of opportunity to gain strength and win.
1. Tom Allen of Maine
2. Scott Kleeb of Nebraska
3. Andrew Rice of Oklahoma
4. Bruce Lunsford of Kentucky
5. Larry LaRocco of Idaho
6. Jim Martin of Georgia (if he wins the primary)
7. Jim Slattery of Kansas
8. Bob Tuke of Tennessee
I think the Dems will ultimately win at least two of these eight contests, but it is too early for me tell which two. The only really safe Republicans I see are:
1. Mike Enzi of Wyoming
2. John Barrasso of Wyoming
3. Jeff Sessions of Alabama
4. Thad Cochran of Mississippi
5. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina
So, my prediction is that the Dems will pick up 12 Senate seats. They’ll tell Lieberman to caucus with the stump Republican caucus, and the breakdown will be:
61 Democrats, plus Bernie Sanders
38 Republicans, plus Joe Lieberman
And the best part? No John Cornyn.
Hell yes!!!! We are going to win in Texas!!!!
Show Rick Noriega some love at Netroots for Noriega ActBlue Page.
Especially to this one:
hey, we said the same thing at the same time!
its all good, but. . .
yes. fuck yes.
3. Andrew Rice of Oklahoma
And no Inhofe. Oh, I like that.
He’s a great candidate, but he’s going to be fighting against a heavy McCain vote, I suspect. He needs all of our help.
Yes he does, so help here:
http://www.andrewforoklahoma.com
BooMan, not to be too greedy but about a month or so ago I asked for 62 Senate seats…not counting Bernie Sanders from the Green Mountain State of VT.
Booman, you say:
…and I’d be real interested to hear you expand on the “not Novick” part of this. Is it simply too “unconventional” to pull in the rural Oregon vote? Or a specific policy concern?
I’m from Portland, and haven’t mailed in my ballot yet solely because of this race; I really do like both of these guys, but boy, their styles are very different, huh?
Thanks! -Jay-
Novick won’t do much better than Merkley in Portland, but he’ll do substantially worse in the eastern part of the state. He’s got too big of a mouth and he’s too stridently leftist. It may make some folks feel good to have a guy come out and say what they’re thinking, but in politics you need to use some common sense.
On policy, there’s not much difference.
I’m also not saying Novick can’t win. I’m just not predicting that he would.
Yeah, I hear you. I grew up lower-lower middle-class in eastern Oregon. I just have a head (Merkley) vs heart (Novick) conflict I need to get past. Thanks for your feedback!
-Jay-
your mouth to gods ears!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Oh, and while I’m at it- How about Biden?
Bullshit and Malarkey!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I don’t see the sort of realignment that you and others have been predicting.
Maybe it’s because I live in a state (Wisconsin) that seems to be trending red, on the basis of last month’s elections here and the early Presidential polls.
There is one parallel to the 1980 realignment election, however, that could affect the picture in the Senate. In 1980, there were a number of Democrats who should have been vulnerable in 1974 but survived because all Democrats were favored in the post-Watergate environment. Six years ago, the 2002 elections were held in a post-9/11 environment that similarly favored Republicans, and that increases the chances of a “correction” in 2008.
Unless the economy completely crashes, though, I don’t think the kind of gains you are talking about are possible. The Republicans got a boost, I think, by today’s decision in California that will fire up the religious base. Also, to the extent that voter disaffection is tied to high gas prices, I’d expect those prices to come down in the fall (presumably, the oil companies would like to see Republicans win).
I’d be surprised by a pickup of 5 or more.
.
They always go with the winners!
Even about issues on the ‘Environment’: Alaska Oil Drilling and Polar Bears.
A barrel of oil has value, the dollar not!
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."re: anwr and artic exploitation…it depends on who’s reading the decision and how the guidelines are interpreted by the courts. to wit:
you have to read the fine print and the caveats w/ BushCo™
Man, I hope you’re right. In the meantime, don’t bogart that joint.
.
Republicans, worried about steep losses in the fall elections, abandoned Bush on the votes.
“If you’re running for office this year, obviously you want to demonstrate that you can put up a record of accomplishment that’s based upon working with both sides of the political aisle,” said GOP Sen. John Thune of South Dakota.
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."I feel confident that there will be at least 61 Democrats in the Senate come inauguration day. If that happens, they’d better kick LIEberman to the curb. If they don’t, I’m quitting the party.
I mostly agree. I think that either Novick or Merkley will beat Gordon Smith pretty easily. Smith has never been very popular in Oregon. Novick may be an outspoken leftist, but I think some angry western moderates actually like his abrasiveness. Merkley will win the primary anyway. I don’t think that Musgrove can beat Wicker. Musgrove didn’t leave office very popular. I think Tom Allen will beat Susan Collins. Collins is no Snowe. Finally, the only thing better than a Senate without Cornyn is a Senate without Cornyn AND Inhofe. I’ve never donated to a candidate more than I have to Andrew Rice, and I’m from Pennsylvania.
Now, I’m probably one of the most conservative Democrats to post on this site, and I’m telling you that Lunsford is a world-class POS. I can cotton policy disagreements within the Party but there is no room for treason, and Lunsford’s endorsement of Ernie Fletcher (R) over Ben Chandler (D) in the 2003 gubernatorial election makes him persona non grata as far as I’m concerned – he’s the Bluegrass Joe Lieberman. I won’t vote for him in the primary next week and I won’t vote for him in the general – at least McConnell is honest about the foreskin around his neck…
Al Franken is my sentimental favorite out of all these guys, but is Coleman really that vulnerable?
And in my race, Musgrove looks really strong (he’s got double digits on Wicker) and he knows how to run, and if he can help put the Senate over 60 in D’s that’s good enough for me, but I just don’t like him. (I still think it’s most likely we fall just short, though.) BUT Wicker is AFEARED, I’m telling you. Saw him on the local news, and he was just flustered. Every other thing it was “…and conservatives are outraged, quite frankly…”. No, they’re endangered quite frankly — Republicans, anyway. And in MS, no less. Cochran’s safe, but it’s bad days for the R’s. It feels pretty good.
Which of these races though are most dependent on Obama coattails, I wonder?
Your lips to Diebold’s ears with God speed.
8. Al Franken of Minnesota
Franken for President in 2016!!
Unless some surprise happens or Franken campaigns his ass off, Coleman is going to beat Franken by about 4-6 points.