Not to pat myself on the back, but I did bring this up first. It seems that there may be a better chance of Senator Pat Roberts of Kansas losing his reelection bid if he runs against an independent in a two-way race than if he runs against both an independent and a Democrat in a three-way race. At least, that’s what one recent poll found. For this reason, the Democrats have an incentive to both help Greg Orman, the independent, and to try to convince Chad Taylor, the Democrat, to drop out of the race.
But, first, they have no make sure that Orman would be willing to caucus with them, and that is not assured. While Orman is a former Democrat, he is also a former Republican. And while he preaches tolerance on social issues, he also preaches fiscal conservatism.
Yet, one thing is certain. The Republican Party is going to do everything they can to defeat him.
So, the way I see it, there is an opening here if creative minds care to walk through it.
Serious question.
To pass a bill in the Senate requires 60 votes.
To remove the President from office in an Impeachment trial requires 2/3 conviction vote.
The Democrats won’t be taking back the House in 2014.
Honestly, what difference does it make if we get Orson in there and he maybe, possibly caucuses with the Democrats? I mean, sure, the less Republicans, the better, but if Orson is just a straight grifter with a Republican bent…does it really matter?
If the Democrats lose enough seats to where the outcome of the Kansas race could tip the balance of control in the Senate, it would be better. Otherwise, we have one fewer Senator taking orders from Ted Cruz, whether he caucuses with the Democrats or not (and that’s not nothing). But I’m kind of skeptical that if control of the Senate is hanging on Kansas that it’s going to work out in the Democrats’ favor. It’s not impossible, just improbable in my opinion, since that would mean that Democrats are losing most of their “winnable-but-challenging” races but still somehow strong enough to win with an independent in Kansas. To me, it’s more likely that the Democrats have a reasonably good night in November and the independent is pulled over the finish line as part of that strength (or he loses as the Democrats have a dismal night, or he loses as the Democrats’ strength doesn’t translate to Kansas).
In the above scenario, if he wins, the Democrats are maintaining control of the Senate anyway, so my guess is he’ll probably find a way to caucus with them; otherwise, he’s going to be in the minority for his whole term as 2016 is structurally much better for the Democrats. If he just hates Harry Reid so much that he caucuses with the losers, he at least will probably be much more resistant to the Cruz faction of the Republican Party and actually side with the Democrats more often, breaking that vaunted Republican unity (although it would be smarter for him to caucus with the Democrats and constantly break unity with them a la Ben Nelson or the southern delegation since Kansas Republicans will never forgive his apostasy anyway while Democrats will be grateful that a wacko state has a less wacko Senator for awhile).
The red state upset I really want to see is Kentucky. If anyone deserves to be forcibly retired, it’s Mitch McConnell.
Allocation of resources.
Even if Orman ends up being a Republican disguised as an independent, in the bigger picture having Roberts fight harder (and spend more GOP money) for his seat while the Dems spend nothing and focus resources elsewhere can only help them.
So the Democrat should withdraw so that the “good” Republican can win? That’s the way to build a Party?
by most descriptions Taylor is the kind of “Democrat” that makes some of us wish the party had higher standards.
That ain’t gonna happen. I’m flatly ruling that out. Democrats are not gonna stand down.
KY not looking as promising as it did a couple of months ago:
Sometimes numbers are better evidence than what people say they think. To this day Democrats/liberals blame Gore for not running on a third Clinton term and refuse to believe that wherever Clinton stumped for Gore, his poll numbers dropped. So, in early August when I saw that Bill Clinton campaigns for Alison Lundergan Grimes in tight Kentucky U.S. Senate race, I suggested that this might be a mistake for Grimes.
That was done before the Benton resignation. We’ll see if anything changes.
True. But of late, these types of scandals don’t seem to be sticking to GOP politicians all that well. And McConnell’s Benton issue is weaker tea than Walker’s and Walker is still in the running to be re-elected. As far as being a representative of the State of KY, at an objective level, Grimes is superior to McConnell who is an odd duck generally and even odder for KY.
A poll is not destiny. 570 is not a big number.
I will be more interested in a poll in 2-3 weeks.
This was always going to be a tight race and it will be tight all the way through the election, but Allison will win. Of that I am confident.
OK, you are in KY. What gives you this kind of confidence? If McConnell could be taken out, that would sure be cool. But what is going to get KY, a pretty conservative place, to vote in favor of Grimes? I do recognise that she is ALREADY a state-wide winner, and that certainly makes her strong.
McConnell is HATED in Kentucky…by Republicans. Allison is all the way Kentucky and poses a profile that can make inroads with the Eastern Kentucky folk, so as long as she doesn’t do something stupid (e.g. bear hug Obama) she should be our next Senator.
As someone who knows practically zilch about geology, Rei’s dKos diaries on Iceland’s current volcanic activity have nevertheless been fascinating. And more interesting than almost all politicians running for election in the midterms.
And Chad Taylor just withdrew from the race. Roberts, of course, says this is a “corrupt bargain between Greg Orman and national Democrats including Senator Harry Reid that disenfranchises Kansas Democrats. It makes clear what has been obvious from the start: Orman is the choice of liberal Democrats and he can no longer hide behind an independent smokescreen.”
http://www.kwch.com/news/local-news/democratic-candidate-for-us-senate-withdraws-from-race/27864220
And that means that my prospective career as a political prognosticator has suffered YET ANOTHER setback.