(I originally wrote the following as a reply to a comment made by Marie3 in Oui’s post Papadopoulos and Australian Spy Chief in a London Bar. I have been making the same general point…to little avail, unfortunately…on this site since mid-summer, 2015, when Donald Trump first poked his head over the neocentrist, bipartisan, uniparty, corporate-owned Permanent Government media fence and stated quite clearly that he was going to be the next president. [Examples of this effort? Sure. The Trump Problem. You Cannot Laugh A Clown Offstage., Trump-You Cannot Laugh A Clown Offstage. Pt. II and You Cannot Laugh A Clown Offstage, Pt. III. ESPECIALLY When The Stage Is Presidential.]
The point of all of this? Easy. Trump is a dangerous opponent. Do not fall for his dumb act. His real aim is to take over the entire government. Read on.)
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Marie…you write:
…low level bullshitters trying to making themselves sound important…
“Low level bullshitters.” This is where all high level bullshitters begin, Trump included. The ones with talent and luck (plus maybe a small nest egg as well…one definition of “luck”) rise to the top of the bullshitter ranks…also known worldwide as politicians and/or corporate types/bosses.
For example…let’s look at Trump.
Much has been written about his privileged upbringing. I’ve got news for all of the people who think that he was born with a silver spoon up his royal ass. He was the son of a second-rate Brooklyn/Queens real estate hustler, a man who made his money in the post-WW II boom years building garages for new G.I. Bill-funded suburbanites, and his father was the son of an immigrant who ran saloons (also known as brothels) during the West Coast Gold Rush. I cannot imagine how many sons of the nouveau riche got substantial amounts of start-up money in the post-WW II NYC area. Hundreds? Thousands, maybe. They had no seat at the tables of the truly wealthy. None of them. Trump out-worked, out-hustled, out-cheated and out-self promoted them all.
The above is not an “appreciation” of Trump; it is simply a clear-eyed assessment of his talents. In The Art of War, Sun Tzu states “Know your enemy.” Why? Because if you do not know…and accurately assess…your enemy, you are bound to get your ass kicked. Ass-kicking is what Trump has been doing all of his life. Deal wid it. He is really good at it. People have dismissed him as just another cheap hustler during his entire career, including the so-called “smart” progressive left. He is not. He is a brilliant hustler who possesses in his arsenal of hustles perhaps the best dumb act that the U.S. has ever seen from a national politician. Maybe Lincoln was his only rival in that department. Early Lincoln, anyway.
Underestimate him at your own risk…at the risk of the rest of us as well. And while I am at it…do not over-estimate the talents of his pursuers. There is not a soul amongst them who can match Trump’s lifelong won/lost record. Not Mueller, not anyone in the F.B.I. and probably no one in the intelligence services as well.
Game on.
Still!!!
Bet on it.
Later…
AG
Donald Trump’s Mother Is the Key to Understanding His Towering Insecurity
What I pointed out about Trump in my response to AG’s original post and without having read The Art of the Deal or seen this article. (Trump couldn’t possibly have written those quotes because he doesn’t have that much self awareness. Wonder if he read it. Off to read Burleigh’s article (even though I’ve long past the point of Trump overload) to see if she makes that point.)
Drumpf sold his belongings and land in Monte Cristo, Washington and moved north in 1898.
Friedrich Drumpf … living the Yukon Dream!
Trump smelled opportunity. He opened a canteen along the route, Blair says, where weary travellers likely stopped for a bite of Arctic roadkill. A frequent dish was fresh-slaughtered, quick-frozen horse. This established a pattern for Trump’s Canadian business model. It’s summed up in one chapter title: “Mining the Miners.”Unlike other gold-crazed migrants, Trump realized that the best way to get [rich] was to lay down his pick and shovel and pick up his accounting ledger.
○ No #drumpf in Kallstadt
Wait – Fred Trump Sr out-worked and out-hustled. I don’t know about cheating. It’s probably his father, Frederick Trump the elder, who set the stage for that out-working and out-hustling, but he died young.
Donald is the subject of that joke, “How do you make a million dollars? Start with 2 million.” Out-promoted and out-BS’ed, those I’ll give you.
And also, it was the Yukon gold rush, not the west coast.
AG, The idea that with DJT we are dealing with a man of remarkable intelligence merely playing the fool is quite dubious IMO. I can see nothing in your rendition of Trump’s past that denotes a highly intelligent person purposely playing the clown. His slim monetary accomplishments were made possible by tax lawyers and his Levittown daddy. His businesses were serial failures. I do agree that the time has long past to laugh him and his ridiculous persona off the stage.
Trump was lucky in his opponent and lucky at the stage of history onto which he strode, when (after 30+ years) the imbecilization of the white electorate by the “conservative” movement bore its most spectacular fruit. The electorate’s collective failure and intellectual collapse is adequate explanation for his political success.
He is a low grade vulgarian who has had moderate success at being a conman and tax cheat in a degenerate society and economy that rewards fraud and grants numerous chances to millionaires who owe 10 times more than their assets. He has a charisma that is frankly lost on me, but which the incompetent white electorate clearly enjoys: his reality TV persona. He is a sucker for sycophants and flatterers, and famous for being famous.
However, the idea that we are dealing with some sort of colossal political “aw shucks” talent or remarkable intelligence hiding behind the mask of a buffoon (why exactly?) is strained. HE is the one constantly regaling us ad nauseum with the (supposed) level of his “super-high” intelligence, remember. So he is an extremely clever man playing the buffoon for some reason while yapping all the while about his actual high intelligence? This is not a coherent picture.
Nor is the fact that he and his “conservative” courtiers clearly wish to bend the government to his will much evidence of any great intelligence on his part–it is simply a routine reactionary attitude, to be expected in “conservative” political circles, from Junya to Cheney to Trumper. He is ambitious and unduly impressed with his mundane gifts and corporate law grifts, but a highly intelligent man cleverly playing the fool for the hoi polloi, no. He is more the Rube Who Won the Lottery than Cardinal Richelieu, haha.
Yes. If TV producers/talent/etc. had given Trump the same amount of airtime and attention that they gave Pataki, Graham, or any of the other ’16 unmemorables, there would be no President Trump. That wasn’t Trump’s doing (even with his twitter machine); it was the media handing Clinton a ‘Pied Piper’ opponent. (His staged announcement of his candidacy was a joke even with addition of attendees that he paid to have there.) The expectation was that once in the center ring, he would fold like the last little monster they upgraded, Perot. (Technically he did in that first debate, but by then he’d wrapped up all the fundies, die-hard GOP voters, and those who sound tough talking (and don’t use words above the vocabulary of a twelve year old — IOW like them).
But let’s not delude ourselves into the notion that he only appeals to white people. Americans like vulgar and many that don’t, tolerate vulgar. Americans like rich people. Americans like celebrities, regardless if there is any plausible reason other than media attention for their celebrity status. People that will take time out of their lives to catch a glimpse of a celebrity that gives them “I seen X” bragging rights as if that confers something special on themselves.
Trump is like Schwarzenegger without acting skills (an extremely low bar) or a sense of humor on steroids. Unfortunately, given the predispositions of the average American, they beat a run-of-the-mill and/or wimpish opponent. Sanders unleashed (which he couldn’t do in the primary election) would have been more than Trump could handle.
Yeah…”lucky” this and “lucky” that. When do you think “luck” runs out? I would say that is running about 45 years. Counting on “luck???” I don’t think so.,
I am sorry, euzoius and the rest of the Trump denigrators. He’s wrong on almost every issue, but he’s not without abilities. And he’s not wrong about his own self-interest. Not yet he hasn’t been, anyway.
This on the evidence of his successes, not on his neo-centrist publicized image.
You’ve been hornswoggled once again by the NeverTrump media.
Let’s take it from the top, OK?
From his early entry into the fray:
A couple of months later:
Several months after that:
And after almost one year in office?
HMMMmmmmmm…
WTFU.
He’s winning.
Why?
Maybe because Trump’s well-meaning oppositon thinks that his successes have been all about “luck.”
And what/who has been the driving force in this set of misperceptions?
HMMMmmmmmm twice!!!
Your holy leftiness “media”!!!
HMMMMMMMmmmmm…!!!
WTFU.
You’ve been had. From the rear!!!
Later…
AG
Time 2011 – 10 Donald Trump Business Failures
If it were skill/acumen explain why:
Virgin Atlantic Airways launched in 1984 is still going strong and The Trump Shuttle (purchase and rebranding of Eastern Air Shuttle) launched in 1988 became bankrupt and ceased to exist in 1992.
Trump got his first NJ gaming license in 1982. Sheldon Adelson got his first one in 1988 with the purchase of the Sands Hotel and Casino. Who is wealthier today: Trump or Adelson? How many of Trump’s hotel/casinos have gone into bankruptcy and were either sold or ceased to exist through the bankruptcy proceedings?
Virgin Vodka launched in 1994 (withdrawn from the market some years later). Trump Vodka launched 2005 and ceased production in 2011.
The art of Trump’s deals includes 1) stiffing construction subcontractors 2) failing/failed businesses and stiffing creditors and investors by threatening or actual putting them into bankruptcy 3) creating the impression that Trump wasn’t responsible for the failure or that it was no big deal and therefore, to be forgotten.
Note: ‘branding’ came of age in the early 1980s and lots of people and existing companies with their brands got in on the act. Trump was hardly the most successful at this. (Check out his proposed Moscow Hotel MOA to see the formula that he and his attorneys and accountants finally stumbled on. Ka-ching for him if it works (and no money down) and no skin off his nose if it’s another loser. The only key is suckers with more bucks than brains, often seeking legitimacy and status (brand Trump) for their dirty money. (Again he’s not alone with the business model.)
Why the media in your city ever became enamored of Trump is beyond me. But I also don’t understand the obsessive media that drives public obsessions over unexceptional people like Paris Hilton and the Kardashians. You can call that exceptional talent/skill, but the luck component is yuuge.
You ask:
Why?
How?
Because he is a professional gambler, Marie. Even the greatest gamblers lose often. The difference between them and the not-so-good gamblers is that good ones win more than they lose.
Substantially more.
I hear this line of criticism about Trump all the time. “His businesses went bankrupt!!! He must be a bad businessman.”
He won. Right up the line, from what were essentially…to continue the metaphor…local poker games right on up to the biggest casino of all. The presidency of United States of Omertica.
You ask:
I respond:
Who wields more power today?
For real gamblers, the money is just a sideline. It’s winning that counts.
You also say:
Gambling at its highest levels…and I mean poker playing particularly…is often as crooked as hell. it’s about winning…winning by any means necessary that don’t get you beaten, shot and/or put in prison.
Trump has…so far…won and won big.
He is now one of the most powerful people in the world. Instead of having a bunch of bouncers working in his casinos, he now controls (at least in theory) the most powerful armed forces that have ever existed. How did he get to that point? By cutting every corner and pulling every dirty deal that he could manage without geting busted.
Again…so far.
Smart gamblers know when to draw the line. When to hold ’em and when to fold ’em. So far? He’s still there. Will Trump fold ’em in time to come out alive and not imprisoned, or will hubris be his downfall as it has been for so many other gamblers.
We shall see.
Meanwhile…if you are opposing Trump, I repeat:
Do not underestimate him!!!
Do so at your own…and everyone else’s…peril.
He has an astoundingly good dumb act.
Bet on it.
He’s been running that game for 70+ years and counting, and it recently won him the championship game at the biggest casino on earth.
DUH!!!
AG
There are several kinds of intelligence (IQ, EQ,…), not all correlating with the frontal lobe. Like it or not, Trump appears to possess that elusive pro-active intelligence of “highly effective people”. As an example of dynamic initiative, he embraced internet marketing very early.
Trump is quite an example for the alpha posturing crowd.
So he dips his toe into anything that looks hot. Big deal. (He’s about as computer/internet savvy as Hillary.)
This was wrong:
Trump was out of the race before few people knew he was in it. Buchanan did stay in and enough Palm Beach County Jews inadvertently voted for the Nazi instead of the Zionist they wanted to vote for that the change the whole outcome of the election.
This hit on a correct element but long before it was mature:
Tasteless spectacle and vulgarity have long been present in the collective American psyche, but it’s stature was too low to flower in the political arena. It got a boost with “reality TV” that gained popularity after 9/11. He was also completely wrong that it could be accomplished through a third party run. Lockman only hit on it in the last two sentences, “media worship” and “slambang personalities.” Jesse Ventura and Schwarzenegger were the test-runs. That supplies a clue to the phenomenon shelf life, approximately four years. The act/show gets stale and the “slambang personality” gets boring or becomes hollow as his required real work performance becomes seen for what it is, third-rate.
Trump is now only at year 2.5. We’ll see if I’m in the ballpark on that shelf-life when Trump enters year four in late 2019.
As unlikely as it seems, I think he will win a second term if his opponent is Clinton or Biden. Only a radical difference can topple the Republican Party. This too is like the last days of the Roman Republic.
Aint’t that the truth!!!
AG
That crossed my mind while reading “Rubicon” by Tom Holland.
Oh, all republics fall at some point, generally ever so much later than prognosticators trumpet.
Democrats now have less than a year to get their sh*t together for the mid-terms. No sign that they’re making any effort on this as they wait for Mueller to save them. Maybe they’ll get lucky and a ‘slambang personality’ will jump into the Democratic primary and pull their chestnuts out of the fire as Trump did for the GOP. (A truly depressing option.)
Lots can happen in nearly three years. Plenty of time for all of Trump’s yuuge promises to the rubes not to materialize for them. Many of them were embarrassed to vote for him once — but the promises were so many and sounded so good and they had been done with the Clintons in 2000.
Remember the razzle-dazzle of GHWB’s invasion of Panama and then Iraq? His approval rating went up to stratospheric levels. Predicting that he was unbeatable. Yet he remained the same out-of-touch, and rather dumb, politician he’d always been. After his big war victories (vanquishing the Vietnam Syndrome!), too many were left with a sense of that’s it? Scratching their heads to recall what all the fuss was about as the economy was stuck in a recession and GHWB was promising 1) NAFTA 2) capital gains tax reduction and 3) flag burning amendment.
As of 1/02 GWB was riding the 9/11 wave of public approval. (A magic trick because it happened on his watch.) He had his “axis of evil:” Iran, Iraq, and N. Korea. Obama never found an adequate replacement for Iraq (after GWB destroy it) and so far, Trump is also dicking about with the other two as he searches for a potentially more profitable enemy. Perhaps like Reagan, he’ll find himself a Grenada.
Or in an echo of Carter who found himself on the wrong side of Iran (by not deviating from wrongheaded past policies and not paying attention) and without a viable contingency plans (the “oh sh*t” moment for him and the national security state) and then double “oh sh*t” with the overrun of the Tehran embassy (helicopter rescue plan (the best the military could come up with) was one of the stupidest ever), Trump’s Israel-KSA deal (and upgrade from what already existed but far more visible to the public) may be what sparks his “oh sh*t” with no way out.
While you and I and others were wrong about the man, by late 2002 we were right on what it would take to defeat GWB. I hedged (using the traditional financial definition of the word). President with high approval ratings (as GWB had at that time) sink and become vulnerable in one of two ways: 1) economic collapse or malaise 2) a wrongheaded foreign policy adventure that turns into a debacle.
#1 was out there on the horizon but as each one (and all the relevant variables) differs from prior ones, the timing of it is unpredictable. Thus, for political purposes and when the situation is as fuzzy as it was in 2002-03, the opposition does best by preparing to exploit it if suddenly materializes but not bank on it for a win.*
#2 Unlike others, I had no doubt the GWB would get his Iraq war on. And unlike his daddy, planned to march to Baghdad and topple Saddam and get that final declaration of success and peace very close to the ’04 election. So, Democrats (October ’02) had to consider which way the war would go: a) stunning success or b) another fine mess. A war (and Bush planned to spend on it) also meant that #1 would be far less likely to materialize before the 2004 election.
If a) there was no winning option for Democrats. Support and piss off the base or don’t support and end up with egg on their faces but the base wouldn’t defect.
If b) there was the lose option of supporting it or the win option of opposing it.
Factor in Bush and Cheney’s business record (and war is another form of business) then the odds of b) increase.
So, do the right thing and hold the base and end up with either egg on one’s face or being a winner. Kerry didn’t want that egg on his face again (but he also way over-estimated the splat from the Gulf War). IOW — his principles and analytical abilities are both weak. Clinton’s calculation was similarly flawed — assumed that the war would make GWB unbeatable in ’04 — discounting the b) outcome and that supporting it would establish her war bonafides for ’08. They are both horrendous people.
So, what did Democrats do after ’04? Sure didn’t position themselves for themselves for the ever-closer #1 by 2008. Nor sufficiently pound Bush for what by then was the obvious #2 debacle. Small bore political and campaign rhetoric in times when the issues are so large. They, not erroneously relied on the awfulness of Bush to carry them in ’08, but that left them weak/vulnerable because nobody had voted FOR 1) Romneycare 2) bailing out banksters exclusively and 3) more war. (Should also note that FDR ran on better ‘Hoovernomics’ in ’32, but enough congressional Democrats had positioned legislated and positioned themselves (’31-’32) to reject such milquetoast. FDR came around but there were some very short, fierce battles.)
And so do monarchies.
Yup.
AG
(and some skip the Republican affiliation)
Atrios:
It is not silly to suspect that the world is about to burn one way or other, and then choose your way.
But it is silly to believe that there will be options for individuals from which to choose.
Rather than believing, they may be already choosing an instinctive, “tried” option.
A 90% punctuated equilibrium is more probable than a 100% apocalypse.