It’s good to see some weakening of Hurricane Irene. It’s currently projecting as a strong Category 1 hurricane when makes landfall in North Carolina, and perhaps a weak Category 2. Here’s what is still very concerning, however.
At 3:30 pm EDT this afternoon, a wind analysis from NOAA/HRD (Figure 2) indicated that the potential storm surge damage from Irene still rated a 5.0 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is equivalent to the storm surge a typical Category 4 hurricane would have. While this damage potential should steadily decline as Irene moves northwards and weakens, we can still expect a storm surge one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than Irene’s winds when it impacts the coast. Since tides are at their highest levels of the month this weekend due to the new moon, storm surge flooding will be at a maximum during the high tidal cycles that will occur at 8 pm Saturday night and 8 am Sunday morning. Wherever Irene happens to be at those times, the storm surge damage potential will be maximized. I continue to give a 20% chance that a 3 – 4 foot storm surge high enough to over-top the Manhattan flood walls and swamp the New York City subway system will occur on Sunday. The latest 11 am probabilistic storm surge map from NHC shows a 20 – 30% chance of a storm surge in excess of 3 feet in New York Harbor (Figure 4.) Keep in mind that these maps are calculated for normal tide level, and this weekend’s high tides will be nearly 1 foot above normal.
Projections are that the hurricane will be pretty near Philadelphia at 8pm Saturday, meaning it is likely that the storm surge will be maximized in the city. An earlier update by Dr. Jeff Masters projected Irene to still be a Category 1 storm at that point.
The storm is too large to weaken quickly, and the best forecast is that Irene will be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall in North Carolina on Saturday, and a rapidly weakening Category 1 hurricane at its second landfall in New England on Sunday.
If all of this is true, then Philly would get a flood surge equivalent to a maximized Category 2 hurricane even though the actual hurricane is only a Category One.
Weather Channel is saying that despite the lower cat, Irene is still very nasty because it has a) an unusually large wind field and b) unusually low pressure. One of their guys basically said the category isn’t as important.
I don’t know why people just aren’t interested in this topic. It’s a really big deal. More than any “outrageous quote” of the week.
Are our east-coasters just in denial? I’m extremely worried for you all and I’m safely confined to my air-conditioned condo in Northern Nevada on this hot day. No foul weather expected here…
I see people walking along the Jersey shore on TV as if nothing is happening. I shake my head. Y’all should be preparing for a few weeks of hell as you dig out of this mess that is about to hit you HARD. Get some rest. You may need it.
But I recall just before Katrina, Shep Smith was wandering Bourbon Street amongst the drunks and asked them what they thought of the oncoming hurricane. They flashed their tits and screamed with joy (and said some things that aren’t allowed on the TV.) Whatever.
The lack of comments from people in the affected areas is because they are either on the road moving to high ground or too darn busy getting ready for this thing. I don’t know about people in NJ (hey, they could be fools) but here in NC we take hurricanes very seriously. Read my other comments about how much money and effort my husband and I have put into surviving this thing as comfortably as possible. Yeah, I’m going to suffer without air conditioning and the internet but otherwise we’ve got water, food, a generator and easy access to gas to run it.
I’m not a religious person but I don’t know how else to say something along the lines of “god bless you” without resorting to religious talk. Good luck. Please let us all know how this thing turns out once you’re able to.
Really. Good luck. You could see the worst of this thing, so hang in as best you can. I wish I could help out in some way but I’m imprisoned in my air-conditioned condo, you know… 🙂
Right – and Max Mayfield said it could intensify and is actually showing signs of doing so. NOAA plane just measured a wind of 123mph. Boo Tribber SJCT is right in the path near the coast of northern NC and is staying put. Keep her in your thoughts.
Why don’t people just LEAVE before bad bad terrible things come in and hit them – when they’ve had plenty of fair warning. You just GO, go, go NOW.
She’s in my thoughts. I wish her well.
People with animals/livestock cannot just leave so easily, as is the case with sjct.
I hope that the storm weakens and that they make it through without too much trauma.
(that was me, CG…still sharing a laptop)
Ya’know, if I lived in an apartment overlooking the beach, I would be so gone already. I would have packed up my valuable shit and hit the highway yesterday.
So why haven’t we gone?
Everything we need to survive is right here! We live on an almost self-sustaining little farm ABOVE THE SURGE ZONE. Packing up and going to a motel with chickens is not an option. We’re not going to abandon our egg layers, our large garden, our orchard, our freezer full of food or our house–all those essential things that make survival possible in the short-term and for the long haul. We have a generator and a well! We will have fresh eggs and ICE! The local power plant–less than a mile away–is saying they will have us back on line by Tuesday or Wednesday.
Yes, we do have the risk of trees falling on our house but THAT is all the more reason to stay! We have a large tarp we can put in place to prevent additional damage to our house and belongings. If we’re not here to spread it out no one will do that for us and we’d return to a worse situation. We’ve got chain saws and a tractor with a front-end bucket. We can clear our house, our driveway and the road to the highway of debris.
The other thing that no one mentions is looting. If we’re not here then other people who aren’t as inclined to survival as we are will steal our chickens, our freezer, and anything else they can get their hands on like our TV and all of our computer equipment… We need to be here to defend what is ours… and share it, too.
That’s the final reason we’re HERE. My husband happens to be one of THE GUYS who will restore the computer networks for the local police, the fire dept/emergency personal, the hospital, etc. Most of today–when we could have been on the road running away–he was on the phone and around town helping people shut down their servers, back up their data, and prepare for the storm. He needs to be here immediately afterwards to help sort out the mess! He’s an essential part of the community!
Okay. You make good points an I can completely understand where you are coming from. No hard feelings?
I’ve just been freaking out seeing all of this.
I hope all goes well.
I’m sorry and don’t take this the wrong way, but I totally laughed out loud when I read this.
Mostly from this sentence: “Packing up and going to a motel with chickens is not an option.”
Just imagining people doing that with the chickens clucking on the floor/ground makes me chuckle.
No offense taken. Most people don’t get my sense of humor. I’m glad you did.
Thank you so much for your concern! Please remember Irene hasn’t hit land yet–the wind gusts will subside! It’s also coming ashore three times as far away as originally predicted. It’s got to churn some ground to get to us now and that does slow a hurricane down. I really believe we’re going to be fine… or I’ve gotten beyond the point of commitment where I have to be fatalistic about it.
Good luck sjct! It sounds like you’re very prepared, and know what you’re in for. I’m confident you’ll be fine, but let us know you’re ok as soon as you can, ok?
Yes, ditto. I worry too much maybe.
Please keep yourself safe, SJCT. And the 65 million other people in the path of this monster as well.
This thing just scares the hell out of me.
Also, good on you BooMan for linking to Dr. Masters’ blog. I don’t know if you’ve read him habitually or if you just found him, but I’ve been reading him for years and his analysis and commentary is absolutely first class. I remember reading him through the whole Katrina mess and he was pretty much spot on, it was frustrating watching the news on teevee because they always seemed a step or two behind.
I hope all of you east coasters will be singing this soon.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rs3mj1E8LSU
great link! thanks! going to listen to all the versions!
May be ok after all. This tweeted out this morning from Paul Douglas, a respected Minnesota meteorologist:
“Irene: more hype than harm? 6-12 foot storm surge for NYC? Not even close, more like 1-3 feet. A hurricane of hype.”
Maybe, but I’d rather people be over prepared than under prepared. This is the strange case where hype could save lives.