I confess that I don’t understand the minds’ of people who are persuaded by political advertising, so I have no idea if the Democrats’ Rope-a-Dope Strategy is the correct one. I am glad that they scrimped in September so that they’d have more money than the Republicans for the last two weeks, but that’s mainly because the third-party ads are running seven-to-one against us. Without a cash advantage, all we’d be seeing are Republican ads.
On the other hand, it’s very late in the game to be trying to change the narrative in these races. The Republicans wanted to create a wave of inevitability, and I think they have succeeded. It could magnify their disappointment if they take neither house of Congress, but it also helped put more seats in play.
What do you think?
Maybe it’s cynical of me but I don’t really believe that people who say they are undecided are truly undecided. To my mind, most of those people have made a choice, but they are really just looking for a compelling reason to justify the choice or to oppose the choice.
I think in cases like these, the last minute ads do work by helping to push that person in either direction!
i really think we’re in uncharted territory here. black president, 10% unemployment, fear of a double dip recession, a tea party takeover of the GOP, boomers retiring, fox news dominant. i just don’t think any of this is going to play out as people expect.
Back in the old days (1986 when George Mitchell chaired the DSCC and oversaw the strategy that helped the Dems retake the Senate), the DSCC would give a bunch of money to viable Dem candidates, with the restriction that they save that money for TV advertising in the last 2 weeks of the campaign—no matter how badly they were getting hammered in August and September. It worked then. A lot of people just don’t tune into elections until the very end of the campaign.
Of course, that was before early voting was common….
This year it is GOTV not ads that are going to make the difference. Some folks might be unconsciously swayed by the doubt sowed in a negative ad, but most folks who are voting for national issues have made up their minds. It is just a matter of getting the Democratic supporters to actually cast their votes.
And having those in IL vote twice for Alexi Giannoulias (wouldn’t you know it would be “vote early, vote often Illinois” that would have this situation this year?)
Most likely the special elections in NY, IL, DE, and WV will cause the winner to be seated for the lame duck session.
Actually, I think it was pure vindictiveness to try and throw Roland Burris out two months early. Coupled with the hope of getting Mark Kirk voting “No” in the lame duck session. Pardon me, I’m getting ill at the thought of that lying scumbucket “representing” me.
Ok,
this is totally off-topic, but isn’t this the definition of “cutting off your nose to spite your face”?
Anti-Reid group to Hispanic voters: ‘Don’t Vote’
Oh and he says Angle’s position are irresponsible and “bordering on racist…”!! Bordering, really, someone’s gonna have to tell what more would it take for Angle’s statements to actually be considered more than “borderline…”?
It’s clearly a GOP voter suppression tactic.
Ironically (not!) I got Dino Rossi (running for Senate in Wash. state) ads both below and to the left of this post. Two differrent Rossi mailers in the mail today, too (to one of the most Democratic precincts in the state). Murray’s reelection campaign to date has been virtually invisible on TV, print, Internet, direct mail.
And somebody needs to tell the idiotic consultants back east that WA is an all-mail-ballot state, and we got our ballots in the mail last week. Waiting for the last two weeks for your TV buys is suicidal here.
Meantime, Murray is hoping for free media (and late money) by bringing Bill Clinton to town today, and Obama on Thursday. But I’d lay odds that a lot fewer people pay attention to a brief news item than see those ads.
Fortunately, both Murray and Rossi are known quantities here, so there’s relatively few undecideds. They’re fighting over scraps.
The Chamber ads running here in Illinois are god-awful. One ad is claiming my Democratic state senator raised taxes by 5 billion dollars all by herself. There are really only two ads running against Alexi Giannoullias, both reference Bright Start and Broadway Bank, they’re pretty much rehashed ads identical to the ones Mark Kirk started running on endless loop since the spring. Meanwhile,Alexi has been hitting Kirk hard on his lying. Alexi is doing a great job of highlighting some of the votes Kirk’s taken since he’s been in the House, plus he hammered KIrk hard in the urban areas by exposing Kirk’s campaign to challenge voters in urban areas with high minority populations.
I also think the GOP is blowing it by making the midterms about Obama, since he’s way more popular than either chamber of Congress. The polls have been tightening since Labor Day here and I’m confident we’ll hold serve due to OFA’s superior ground game in the state.
Since I already voted, I would say – Yes, it is a bit late in the campaign to try to turn things around.
I will also mention that here in Colorado, Crossroads GPS is spending a LOT of money. In addition to TV and direct mail,they have called me several times.