This is a much more difficult diary to write that my last on Irag, simply because the inforamtion coming out of Afganistan is much more less.
Below the fold:
Ok, I am not a foreign policy expert. Nevertheless, my credentials include being an enlisted Green Beret in the Army and then after college (UMich – Russian & Eastern European Studies major), a Naval intelligence officer with experience at SEAL Team EIGHT. So my take on this comes from a tactical rather than strategical point of view. Please argue with me if you disagree.
When the whole Afganistan thing started, my best friend (and ex-wife, Olga) said that she never expected to hear “Khandahar” in the news again. She is from the USSR, yea the old name, in Komsomol and everything. She is now in the Virginia National Guard and since she is a geological prospecting engineer (specialty in radioactive ores & minerals) as well as a secondary MOS in geo-engineering, I told her to never put on paper her native language. I don’t want to see her deployed. Why?
Well, let me let you on a little secret from a non-classified briefing I attended in the spring of 2002. Since the WOT, we have a military footprint in every country in Central Asia. Why? OIL!
Yes, folks, this is about oil. This is about getting a pipeline to the ocean with minimum danger. The smokescreen is Iraq, watch Iraq but that is not where the interests lies. We’re talking Azerbaijani oil fields and stable countries to export that oil. Well, Iran is the most stable country to have a pipeline through, but before Afganistan was our best bet (and you really thought we cared about human rights?). The Taliban kept the country stable much like Tito in Yugoslavia. But now, we have a problem. The only stable country is Iran, we would like to see a pipeline maybe to Turkey, but that means going through unstable countries. We can’t abide Tehran, so it must be Kabul.
But as I said in my last diary, we must have the Auxiallry on our side. Unfortunately, these are the folks who are growing a great product that I try out everytime I visit Amsterdam. We are eradicating their means of production. This will turn them against us and toward the warlords.
As my ex said, it wasn’t until the Soviets went after the imams that the populace turned against the occupying power. Well, like Columbia, we’re turning off the populace by going after their livlihood.
So, we need Afganistan for the oil pipeline, but we’re losing it by oppressing the average farmer. I am not advocating the growth of drugs here, just expressing my vision of cause and effect.
Until we cater to the will of the populace, or support an alternative crop production, we will find ourselves in the Soviet dilemna.
Those are my thoughts.
“Lawrence of Arabia” cavalry charges made by my younger SF colleagues, we’re past that now and must re-think our policy is we are to salvage Afganistan.
I am sorry to crash the thread like this, but please people, believe me. This is my JOB. This pipeline will not be built because it makes no sense economically speaking and no one will take the risks associated with it. NO ONE. It costs oil companies, diplomats and others zero to talk about it and pretend to do it, but they will never actually spend real money (i.e. more than a few million in PR or “studies”) on this project.
I wroter a full diary to explain this in detail, which you can find here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/4/16/9380/00448
Please. Afghanistan was NOT about oil. Just a simple fact: the only conceivable pipe going through Afghanistan would be a gas pipeline, not an oil pipeline.
Great diary! I remember seeing something about this in Fahrenheit 9/11 but I’m not one bit surprised.
The last I heard about the opium was that more and more Afghans were turning to cultivation to survive but I haven’t heard anything else. Are the US troops still spraying the opium fields?
from Kipling’s Young British Soldier
When you’re wounded and left on Afghanistan’s plains,
And the women come out to cut up what remains,
Jest roll to your rifle and blow out your brains
An’ go to your Gawd like a soldier.
Go, go, go like a soldier,
Go, go, go like a soldier,
Go, go, go like a soldier,
So-oldier of the Queen!
Ben, I know that poem very well, it’s been in my mind a lot lately.
Well, let’s hope figuratively, not literally.
Thanks for the diary, JD.
I don’t know, JD.
Jerome a Paris had an extensive diary a couple of months ago – arguing that it would never be built. Have not seen him on here today, but the two of you could probably have an interesting discussion.
Pipeline economics – why the Afghan pipeline will NOT be built
if it will be built or not. That info came from a briefing in 02. Of course, things change and Jerome may be right. Nevertheless, out military/foreign policy was headed in that direction at that time.
Oh, and maybe I can confess here for the first time. This is not classified but came from the Battalion Commander (NG) at a formation gathering and who worked in the pentagon as a day job, October 2001:
“Gentlemen, get ready for Iraq”
OCTOBER 2001!
Maybe it’s possible that some people actually believe that this pipe can be built, as it makes superficial sense, but they are not the ones who can decide to do it.
You’d be amazed by the amount of effort some people seem to spend on pushing project that will very obviously never go anywhere – speaking at conferences, writing papers, making a lot of diplomatic noise, to no avail. The fact is, such campaigns cost very little (a few million, nothing for the players in the oil game) and can shape perceptions (or help diplomacy) on other topics, so it’s doen seriously.
It will be interesting to see who has the biggest pipeline, and most of all, “who” own’s it ; )
It’s always about the oil, since the 50’s, the question is, who is going to get wiped out in the process of procurement?
Here ya go: India, Pak agree to accelerate plans to build pipeline
He said the US opposition to the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline project did not come up for discussion in meeting with Musharraf.
No wonder GW Oil is pissed @ Iran.
Yea. That’s what I mean about things changing, the dynamics are changing. This option never came up in our briefing.
The bastards never learn: sometimes you gotta be careful what you wish for. There’s a reason people in Central Asia have reputations as the best traders in the world. Lines on paper haven’t changed cultures that pre-date America by millenia.
I stood up at the conference and asked a question. To put it perspective, most of the collars had silver oakleaves, birds, and stars on them. I stood up and asked the PhD “So, let me get this straight, we could be going in to protect corporate interests even though it conflicts with national interests.” He replied, “um, yes.”
You should’ve seen the looks of the brass. Well, leave it to me, quit giving a shit about a military career a long time ago. I’m inactive Guard now and will probably be discharged due my recent VA decision. But hey, somebody had to say it!
You say in your diary “I’m no foreign policy expert” — it is my humble opinion that the ‘experts’ don’t know their ass from a hole in the ground. Foreign policy needs to be shaped by people like you!!
But I’ve devoted my life now to literature and theater, however I am humbled by your humble opinion. I am/was very low on the pay grade scale but it just seemed commonsense to me. I never reached the rank in which the lobotomy was required.
BTW, Brinnaine is a very pretty name, I hope it’s your real one, very nice… something I would consider for my own daughter if I am lucky enough to have one, one day.
…yes, 4 Ns (see EuroTrib, where I actually remembered how to spell it)! But it’s not my real name, that would be Catherine Clare…it’s the name I gave an avatar of mine in the game dark Age of Camelot some years ago. She was a wonderful alter ego for me… if you are familiar with the game, she was a character type called a mentalist (I think…hard to remember now), but she cast spells and could do battle in a physical way only very minimally, she used spells and power support to the more physical fighters….I am babbling. there is some sort of analogy here, but I am too wiped right now to make it! 😉
I noticed that we are the same age — I turned 39 in March — who’s older? Not that it matters in the LEAST, mind you! 😉
Literature is a passion of mine as well…somewhere else you talked about your academic career — may I ask about it? Do you teach?
I turned 39 in May. I grew disgusted with National Security so I switched to German Literature for grad school. Got my MA and now working on my doctorate. My diss will be titled Aesthetics and Ideology in Revolutionary Theater: Bertolt Brecht, Vladimir Mayakovsky, and Federico Garcia Lorca. The Army taught me Spanish and I studied Russian as an undergrad. I had to learn, still learning, German for my grad work. Don’t get too impressed – I can’t even balance my checkbook, absolutely horrible with math. I am currently teaching on an exchange in Germany.
I don’t know the game, but even though I am a high modernist, I still love German medieval literature. I read the not-so-known Arthurian legends (non-English) for fun and love Beowulf as well as the Nibelungenlied, Volsungenlied, etc. The works that are the basis for Tolkien. Really a challenge for me to read the German works (Parzival, Erec, Lanzelot, Der Arme Heinrich,etc.) in Middle-High German, but they are beautiful.
Well, Catherine is pretty too, but I may keep Brinnainne in mind for a future daughter, should I be blessed with one.
Any future daughter would be blessed to have you as well! 😉
I’m pretty impressed, not so much with the doctorate (I’m supposed to be finishingmy disseration right now as well), but with the language skills, the breadth of reading (I adore the well-read though, so maybe that’s just me!) and the experience in other countries.
I am sooo intrigued by your diss. title! What are your thoughts on Jean Genet? I wrote more than one paper on his plays in my maters’ program (MA in English – ’89). Have you ever read “The Theatre of Revolt” by Robert Brustein? IT may be a bit outdated but it was a good read way back when…just pulled it out of my bookshelf and was reminded of my more well-read days! 😉
I have sort of an odd academic “career”, BA in Economics (not from the business school) with minors in Political Science and English, MA in English and am working toward the Ph.D. in Instructional Technology ( a specialization in the Dept. of Curriculum and Instruction in the College of Education). I should have been an actress, but teaching is the next best thing! 😉 I love public speaking, I love public listening, I love learning.
I have read your stuff lots, here and there, and am glad to have a chance to get to know you!
Yes, I do have Brustein in my library and I rely on him. Though he is out-of-date as you said, he’s still important. I like Genet, but I am not an expert. Mainly because I am French illiterate (Jerome, help!). But once I master German, I would like to pick up French. I should have mention Tristan and Isolde as another psuedo-Arthurian work. A beautiful love story but problematic. I picked those playwrites because they were poets first. I think that is very important especially since I am approaching this in a semiotic view. Don’t be too impressed, I literally need a computer program to work out personal finances. I am really a math idiot and have no clue about economics, most times Jerome is over my head. I know what you mean about acting and the classroom – teaching is acting. If you can’t dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bullshit!
Glad to know that you’ve read my stuff, never thought of it as anything great and still surprised to see some of it recommended.
Nos that pipeline would make some economic and industrial sense, but it’s going to be extraordinarily difficult to negotiate, finance and actually build, so I would not hold my breath either.
Diplomats and politicians love announcements, and they love to sign “contracts”. Again, wait until someone actually puts the several BILLION dollars required on the table and explains how they will be paid back.
The West will not let Afghanistan establish themselves in a manner which they know will work for them.
I worked there for eight months advising the government, and it was a constant battle against the various embassies, who wanted to mold the constitution, institutions, and laws to mirror their own systems and values. For the most part, they treated the Afghans like misbehaving children, and worse, and used the threat of withdrawal of assistance as a hammer.
Bottom line – the US and others don’t give a damn what happens there unless it happens to have an impact on their interests, whether it be oil, gas, or military bases.
That is why fighting is starting to flare up again there. This could be even worse than Baghdad, as we have only a tenth of what we have in Afghanistan, even with the possibility that Blair might contribute 5,500 troops.