Here is a thread to talk about Paul Hackett both before, during, and after the returns come in (starting at 7:30 EDT).
To see just how tough a race this is for Hackett to win, see Jerome Armstrong’s analysis, and what he thinks it will take to claim a symbolic victory.
Make your own predictions below.
Update [2005-8-2 21:35:50 by susanhu]:
580 precincts of 753 reporting
JEAN SCHMIDT 45,134 52%
PAUL HACKETT 42,342 48%
Update [2005-8-2 21:16:10 by susanhu]: link / Guy on Air America says this is mostly rural vote, which is incredible for Hackett:
305 precincts of 753 reporting
PAUL HACKETT 23,957 51%
JEAN SCHMIDT 22,846 49%
Update [2005-8-2 21:12:3 by BooMan]: per Chris Bowers:
250 of 753. Hackett 51.99-48.01 Schimdt. Hackett 18,476–17,046. The force will be with Hackett, always. It is getting close to total freak-out time.
Update [2005-8-2 20:51:9 by susanhu]:
175 precincts of 753 reporting
PAUL HACKETT 13,512 51%
JEAN SCHMIDT 12,802 49%
Update [2005-8-2 20:48:2 by BooMan]:
56 precincts of 753 reporting
PAUL HACKETT 6,562 51%
JEAN SCHMIDT 6,276 49%
Update [2005-8-2 20:34:23 by BooMan]:Warren Co.
Update [2005-8-2 20:34:23 by BooMan]:Clermont Co.
Update [2005-8-2 19:29:51 by BooMan]: Returns Page
Will win this election by a margin of 120+ votes.
That would make my Summer if it happens.
I too would love it if Hackett won by even one vote, but you know the Repubcorp™ playbook as demonstrated in Florida and Washington state. When the Repub candidate loses by a small margin, yell and scream and do whatever it takes to (1) get the election overturned or (2) smear the Democrats, and the Democratic candidate in particular, and make it seem like their election has a cloud of doubt and therefore questionable legitimacy.
Me, I wanna see Hackett win by a couple percent. Far enough out of reach that the Big Gray Machine won’t even think about challenging him.
Schmidt: 19,085 votes (48%)
Hackett: 20,669 votes (52%)
And MSNBC’s Monica Crowley is prattling on about professional modeling.
Too cool, Steve. I wish we could go to the party! Or even see video of it! It must be a wild and crazzzzzzzzy place.
Cover real news? That’s asking a lot of our media.
Paul WILL win but it will be due to a recount and findings of voter fraud on the Schmidt side. Oh crap that was my dream last night. The one where I was standing by Paul’s side and we were so proud of his accomplishment and then went home to celebrate and made mad passionate love and….hey, I SAID it was a dream didn’t I? LOL
posted on Kos was if Hackett loses, he loses by 57% to 54% 😉
some numbers: click on the link in the diary
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2005/8/2/195157/7246
those are the absentee ballots only but we sure hope that is a good sign!
Cool beans. Brown County (that those absentee ballots were from) went for Bush over Kerry 64% to 36% so I’d say even those numbers for the absentee ballots mean something!
Dunno what yet tho.
Here is the cnn page from the past election so we can see which counties did what then:
2004 Ohio Election Results
I hereby predict that by December 30, 2005, there will be a new Representative for the Ohio 2nd.
That’s RIGHT! And remember YOU HEARD IT HERE, FIRST!
Other than that — Beats my pair of Aces.
They (whoever THEY are) seem to think Paul needs a low turn out from the Republican side and a large turn out from the Dem’s side in order to win.
Paul Hackett says he served in Iraq. We all know Iraq is a dangerous place, filled with terrorists who hate our freedom and want only to take American lives. If Paul Hackett really saw combat in Iraq, wouldn’t he have been injured? Couldn’t he have lost his life? Yet Paul Hackett is doing just fine and seems to be in perfect health.
So why is Paul Hackett not dead or severely injured? What have you got to hide, Paul?
This message approved by the Jean Schmidt campaign.
“Jean Schmidt – keeping America safe from unwatched balls.”
If the voting machines are ES&S, Diebold, Sequoia, etc., it will be a comfortable victory for Schmidt.
If the vote isn’t rigged, however, it should come down to the wire.
apparently this section of Ohio uses punchcards still, so… a bit less chance of shinanigans. (hopefully)
Bush’s approval rating is threatening to go into the 30’s and Frau Blücher is running on his record.
Hackett is down 55-45% among Hamilton Co. absentee ballots. Nothing much to worry about.
I’m a nervous wreck. I have the disease again … this is worse than gambling.
I agree. I’m flashing back to last November and that wasn’t pretty.
returns are really slow. Shenanigans?
No touch screens for OH-02. IIRC, they use punch cards which take longer to tablulate.
Patience grasshopper. Good things come to those who wait.
# Schimdt strong early in Clermont County. Schimdt 1158-750 (60.60-39.25). Could be a wild night.
From MyDD.
Hopefully hackett has been all over the polls for the count. Hey, Ohio!! The WHOLE country is watching this time!!!!!
http://66.241.236.181/elect/ohbrown/results.txt
OH JESUS … 51-49 Hackett so far … I can’t take this! GAWDDDDD!
Here we go…oh crap kids, it’s gonna be close. I am going to have a breakdown yet.
Only 690 more precints to go. LOL
this could be the first step in taking back our Democracy. please do us proud, people of Ohio.
i’ll be back in a few hours… hopefully to find some good news.
The (very) early returns are good. Let’s see if it stays that way.
I LOVE election nights.
Yeah but remember November? The early returns were good for Kerry too. Here we are in GD Ohio again. No offense to any Ohio folks.
For the love of god, would you please post the FUCKING NUMBERS on the home page … I can’t take this having to click on links. I’m too nervous.
but be honest, you’re going keep hitting refresh every two seconds anyway 😛
Thank you! We gotta keep Susan sane! Not to mention the rest of us. Excuse me. Must go hit refresh now.
How’d you guess?
And thank GOD that Air America is on this too!
I know how you feel, Im about to pour myself a drink, here are the numbers so far
175 precincts of 753 reporting
PAUL HACKETT 13,512 51%
JEAN SCHMIDT 12,802 49%
Absentee all counted:
PRECINCTS COUNTED (OF 35) . . . . . 35 100.00
REGISTERED VOTERS – TOTAL . . . . . 29,220
BALLOTS CAST – TOTAL. . . . . . . 460
VOTER TURNOUT – TOTAL . . . . . . 1.57
PAUL HACKETT (DEM) . . . . . . . 242 52.95
JEAN SCHMIDT (REP) . . . . . . . 213 46.61
WRITE-IN. . . . . . . . . . . 2 .44
Total . . . . . . . . . 457
Over Votes . . . . . . . . . 1
Under Votes . . . . . . . . . 2
Gawd. My mouse palm is sweaty….
So maybe instead of symbols, we can bring out the CYMBALS! (corny, huh)
What a nail biter! Sheesh… who’da thought a few months ago we’d all be so invested in some little area of Ohio.
That’s one of the cool things about combining the blogosphere and the people working on the ground, and the candidates… we wind up knowing who these people are that we are sending to DC. Some people can’t even name their own representatives, let alone those in another county/state.
Helps them (the politicians) out at election or re-election time… and also tends to give them very little cover when they vote in really stupid ways ;).
56 precincts of 753 reporting
PAUL HACKETT 6,562 51%
JEAN SCHMIDT 6,276 49%
US HOUSE Ohio 2nd Dist
175 precincts of 753 reporting
PAUL HACKETT 13,512 51%
JEAN SCHMIDT 12,802 49%
23% of the precincts in and Hackett is holding!!!!
Schmidt can forget a blow-out.
Hacket is doing really, really, well.
The next update is going to put Hackett up over 1,000 votes and at 52%. At least that is what I’m hearing.
That’s what Air America just reported! OMG…
He could be our president someday.
195 out of 753 precincts. Hackett 52-48 Schimdt. Hackett 14,600–13,549 Schimdt.
Susan…get a grip! LOL
Um can he get sworn in and find the bathroom in the Capitol Building first before you start running him for Prez? 🙂
Yeah .. we could Obama him to death. (Good thing you never saw me at Sonics playoff games … very bad, very loud, very mean to referees.)
What’s so cool is that he has the b-lls to tell it like it is on the war, Bush, etc. Wish some, um, other Dems had done the same.
US HOUSE Ohio 2nd Dist 9:01 pm EDT
175 precincts of 753 reporting
PAUL HACKETT 13,512 51%
JEAN SCHMIDT 12,802 49%
Gawd – I think I’m hyperventilating here…
Is this November or August???
Absentee in early is good – they are generally conservative. At least in CA they are conservative…that would have been Schmidt’s big boost.
Don’t we need it? Gawd, if there were ever a group of people who needed a big lift, it’s us.
P.S. Sam Seder just said that he’s sure that Mike Malloy will keep reporting on the OH-2 race after 7PM PDT.
at the NRCC tonight if Hackett wins. Shit will certainly hit the fan.
UPDATE (Bob) 9:06 from Tim
259 precincts reporting of 753 — Paul Hackett 52.18% to 47.81%
This is UNBELIEVABLE
WHOO-WHOO!
(I’m going to faint, now.)
He is really pulling away….go Paul GO!
US HOUSE Ohio 2nd Dist
305 precincts of 753 reporting
PAUL HACKETT 23,957 51%
JEAN SCHMIDT 22,846 49%
I can’t fucking believe this. I posted over on kos today that I was sure he was going to lose.
Shit, I hope I was wrong!
Anybody here know anything about OH-02 precincts? Can we expect this trend to hold up, or is there some super Republican ward out there that’s going to throw it all to shit?
I’m reading Clermont is a big Republican county. But I can’t find any returns from there.
Supposedly the entire county is a super Republican ward… so who knows?
This is enough to drive me to drink. Or Tums. Or something.
I had a few drinks tonight at dinner and now I think I might have to have those Tums. I’ve got agita from all this.
Oh my God…is he really gonna pull this off?
Jeebus… he just may pull this off! Almost half the precincts in and still ahead.
Is anyone surprised that Ken Blackwell’s office is showing results of local issues BUT not congressional race?
Must loosen tinfoil hat….pour more scotch….
http://www.sos.state.oh.us/sos/ElectionsVoter/currentElection.aspx
Can someone grab screen shots…here…?
…. and wouldn’t this be the best birthday present ever?
I hope you have a big upset for a present.
Happy birthday, babaloo. Paul Hackett is giving you your country back!
Happy Birthday to you!!!!
This is so exciting…the conservatives are revolting…we won’t even have to if this is any indication of what is ahead for 06.
Somebody from Dkos on Air America right now…is it Kos? Anybody?
The expectation was around 60,000 would vote in this election. With under half of the precincts reporting there are 46,803 total votes.
Looks like the GOTV effort by the Hackett campaign is paying off.
Chris says:
points over or under, per county… the 2004 election or the house races before, or something. whatever it is, some of it is over what it was!
Nanette this is hysterical! That is, I am.
I have to go out for the evening and can’t watch the returns.
Last time this happened, Kerry was ahead.
Aaaaargh! I want to see Hackett pull this off!!!
have to report before a winner gets called? I never understood how people on TV could call a race with only a small percentage of the precincts in.
All the school levies passed. Sp much for people wanting lower taxes.
580 precints in and Paul still has 52%!!!!
Schmidt has the lead now… 🙁
580 precincts of 753 reporting
JEAN SCHMIDT 45,134 52%
PAUL HACKETT 42,342 48%
US HOUSE Ohio 2nd Dist
580 precincts of 753 reporting
JEAN SCHMIDT 45,134 52%
PAUL HACKETT 42,342 48%
It looks like it just flipped in Schmidt’s favor.
The Diebold precincts must have reported in. </snark>
Shoot. She’s pulled ahead.
Crap I read it wrong…sorry but its not over yet.
nope, not over til it’s over. (and sometimes not even then).
“Find out whatever you can about Clermont Count voting machines. Do it now.”
US HOUSE Ohio 2nd Dist
580 precincts of 753 reporting
JEAN SCHMIDT 45,134 52%
PAUL HACKETT 42,342 48%
Is that not a huge flip? Anyone getting screen captures? I do not know how to do that.
It is Markos on Air America right now.
That was Clermont county coming in a HUGE Republican district.
According to the Cincy Enquirer, Clermont’s not in yet. The big votes for Schmidt have come from Hamilton Cty (about 1400 more votes than Hackett) and Warren Cty (nearly 2000 more votes. Clermont is reporting zero precincts, and Schmidt has about 450 more votes than Hackett.
If Clermont goes big for Schmidt, this could still get ugly.
Full results as of about five minutes ago:
Total
Schmidt: 39,593 votes (51%)
Hackett: 38,359 votes (49%)
2nd Congressional District
Clermont County:
Schmidt: 1,158 votes (61%)
Hackett: 750 votes (39%)
0% of precincts reporting
absentee ballots reporting
Hamilton County:
Schmidt: 25,011 votes (51%)
Hackett: 23,597 votes (49%)
99% of precincts reporting
Warren County:
Schmidt: 7,556 votes (58%)
Hackett: 5,420 votes (42%)
100% of precincts reporting
Brown County:
Schmidt: 3,100 votes (43%)
Hackett: 3,950 votes (57%)
100% of precincts reporting
Pike County:
Schmidt: 611 votes (39%)
Hackett: 965 votes (61%)
50% of precincts reporting
Adams County:
Schmidt: 944 votes (42%)
Hackett: 1,298 votes (58%)
34% of precincts reporting
Scioto County:
Schmidt: 1,213 votes (34%)
Hackett: 2,379 votes (66%)
71% of precincts reporting
Now they’ve got 53% of Clermont in, with Schmidt up about 2100 votes (58-42%). Overall total, they’ve got Schmidt 51-49, and about a 2600 vote lead.
Looks like it’s going down to the wire, but it should be over tonight.
she’ll probably spend her “political capital” on a round of beers at a Cleveland Browns game…
Make that a Bengals game, no?
they both suck…but my Niners will suck worse than both of them put together, I’m afraid… 🙁
Ok now breathe
We need to keep in mind that should Hackett lose, he’ll still have done better than any Dem has done in that district in forever. He had an uphill battle from the get go and if he loses by a small percentage, that’ll be a HUGE victory for us.
I know we all want him to win, but I can’t go through the disappointment of Nov. ’04 again. So I’m typing this for myself as much as everyone else.
Once again, I will never ever ever trust the results.
MyDD crapped out from the traffic.
That settles it. I’m driven to drink! Or something
662 precincts of 753 reporting
JEAN SCHMIDT 49,681 50%
PAUL HACKETT 48,811 50%
50% 50% right now…please please please!!!1
Markos saying alot of the blogs are crashing because of all the refreshes.
This could go either way folks…I am so nervous!
US HOUSE Ohio 2nd Dist
662 precincts of 753 reporting
JEAN SCHMIDT 49,681 50%
PAUL HACKETT 48,811 50%
wcpo results at 9:51pm edt
I think I stopped breathing…
With returns like this I’d say we’re looking at a recount no matter what.
How’s everyone doing? I can’t breath right now!
Booman opened a new thread for more nailbiting and anxiety.
According to the Enquirer, there are four counties with precincts outstanding, Clermont, Adams, Pike, and Scioto. Clermont looks like Schmidt country, she’s running 58-42 and there’s still 48% of the vote to be counted. Scioto, Pike and Adams both look like Hackett turf. He’s up 58-42 in Adams, with 64% of the vote still outstanding. Pike is even better for for Hackett, he’s up 69-31 with half the vote still to be counted. In Scioto, he’s got a strong lead (66-34) but there’s only 29% still to be counted.
I’ve got my fingers crossed, and I’m chewing my nails to the nub.
C’mon, Ohio!
662 precincts of 753 reporting JEAN SCHMIDT 49,681 50%
PAUL HACKETT 48,811 50%
As of right now…he could win and if not, he took a 70-30 district and made it totally competitive…now who was it who said we should run in all 50 states?
What an inspiration…come on Ohio, come on…I’ll send $ win or lose jsut to thank him. There is nothing we can’t do if we work together and have decent candidates.