Interim results in the New Zealand election:
| Party | Vote % | Seats |
| Labour | 40.74 | 50 |
| National | 39.63 | 49 |
| NZ First | 5.84 | 7 |
| Green | 5.07 | 6 |
| Maori Party | 1.98 | 4 (overhang) |
| United Future | 2.72 | 3 |
| ACT | 1.52 | 2 |
| Progressive | 1.21 | 1 |
There are still 193,000 special votes to be counted, so there could be some change in these figures, but that’s the broad sweep of things.
Labour has held its vote share and will probably retain power. The Greens and Progressives are already pledged to support them, and both NZ First and United have said they will negotiate first to support the largest party. The exact shape of the government – whether it is an LPG or LUP coalition, or a Labour-Progressive minority government – will depend on negotiations, but Helen Clark has done what no other Labour leader has done: win herself a third term. In the process, she’s hopefully buried 90’s neoliberalism for good.
Policywise, there’s unlikely to be much substantive change, and certainly I can’t see any change to our independent foreign policy. New Zealand will continue to support multilateralism and oppose US unilateralism. The anti-nuclear legislation is also safe. The casualty is likely to be the prospect of further socially progressive legislation; we may not see progress of gay adoption or marijuana legalisation this term. “Right to die” legislation is probably still on the cards, though the question there is more about proper safeguards than underlying principles.
Despite his good showing, National party leader Don Brash is likely to be rolled within the year. There’s a good chance of a National Prime Minister in 2008, and at least three people who will be chasing that job. He has said he will not retire from Parliament, but its unlikely there will be any place for him after a leadership change. The finance spot he previously held is firmly taken, and he’s unlikely to be happy with a mere associates role. Which means he will probably go back to the kiwifruit farm, allowing a younger MP to take his place from the list.
Overall this is not a resounding victory for the left – but its not the defeat the right were hoping to inflict.
Idiot/Savant
No Right Turn – New Zealand’s liberal blog
Thanks for posting the update. I did go read your blog yesterday to try to get an idea of what’s going on there. But knowing so little of the politics of NZ it was hard to grasp. “The Left by a Nose” I get.
I hope you’ll post more about NZ politics. We Americans are so ignorant. And you guys sort of have no choice but to keep up with what’s going on here, given the impact American political decisions have on the entire planet.
So even if you get no or few comments, it’s not because we’re not interested – we just don’t have anything even semi-intelligent to say. Even to the point of not knowing how to ask a relevant question. But if you keep posting, we’ll keep reading and, I hope, learn.
As an uninformed American, I very much appreciate this diary and would be interested in hearing more about the issues that led to the right doing as well as they did.
In America, the impression of New Zealand is that it’s farther to the left that these results would indicate, so apparently we need to learn more about your neck of the woods.
Thanks again.
I have spent time in your beuatiful country and my daughter is at Vet School there, planning to emigrate when she finishes her degree.
I have a more than superficial understanding of your references, and deeply apreciate your concise and informative reporting. More, anytime, please.
As I came to understand the positions outlined by Brash in his Orewa addresses I could see that someone had slipped him the US conservative playbook – divide people along the lines of race and class in order to break the principle of progressive governance in favor of delusional self interest.
You posted at one time, I believe, on the results of a survey of national values. I found this to be very enlightening as I sit in the land of “individualism” – which has come to be illuminated as “I-Me-Mine”.