I thought people might be interested to know that cases of avian flu have been reported in Kazakhstan.

His warning comes after reported outbreaks of bird to human infection in Kazakhstan and central Asian parts of Russia at the end of August, though there have been no reported cases in Europe.

“Who cares?  I can’t even pronounce Kazakhstan…probably a bunch of yak herders,” you say? Well, Kasakhstan borders the Caspian Sea, which provides a bit of a haven for birds as they fly south for the winter.

Coastal wetlands, including temporary and permanent shallow pans, many of which are saline, attract a variety of birdlife. Birds are prolific throughout the year, in and around the Caspian, and their numbers swell enormously during the migration seasons when many birds patronize the extensive deltas, shallows and other wetlands.

 

So much for the region’s bird-watching ecotourism.

Also bordering the Caspian Sea is Iran, which has already taken the precautionary measure of banning grain imports from countries where the virus has been found.  But with winter migration coming soon, health officials the world over worry that such measures may not do enough to impede the virus’ spread.

Beyond the Caspian, there are many countries along the migration route that are simply not in a position to effectively deal with an outbreak should the wild birds bring the avian flu with them on their travels.  

“FAO is concerned that poor countries in southeast Europe, where wild birds from Asia mingle with others from northern Europe, may lack the capacity to detect and deal with outbreaks of bird flu,” said Joseph Domenech, FAO’s Chief Veterinary Officer.

Bird migration routes also run across Azerbaijan, Iran, Iraq, Georgia, Ukraine and some Mediterranean countries, where bird flu outbreaks are possible, FAO said.

India and Bangladesh, which currently seem to be uninfected, are also considered to be at risk. Bangladesh, and to a lesser extent India, harbour large numbers of domestic ducks and are situated along one of the major migratory routes. They have the potential to become new large endemic areas of bird flu infection, FAO warned.

Iraq may not have large bird populations at the moment, but neither has it anything resembling a functional medical infrastructure.  It is no secret at all that Iraq’s hospitals already struggle to provide care to victims of the war.  An outbreak of the virus there could make the current devastation relatively moderate.  With a pronounced lack of clean water, public hygiene, and communications systems, Iraq seems especially susceptible to high rates of infection, even without the dreaded mutation that could make H5N1 contagious between humans.  

Tamiflu and other potential remedies notwithstanding, we are looking at a rather daunting confluence of events as the flu season approaches.  The life span of your average viral cell is quite short, allowing for fairly rapid emergence of mutations.  It is not at all unusual for flu vaccines to turn obsolete from one winter to the next, due to even tiny variances in the virus cells’ protein structures.  It is also the case that flu pandemics have a habit of occuring approximately every 40 years.  The last one we saw was in the 1960’s – some experts have gone so far as to say we are “overdue.”  

“Why on earth do you tell us such terrible things!?!?” you say.  Because the best precaution any of us can take is to stay informed.  So please keep up with this story and take the information seriously. but whatever you do, keep your towel handy and don’t panic!