The latest attacks in Jordan have caused a backlash among the local populace. After trying to blame things on Israel it has now become apparent that the bombers came from Iraq. The victims were mostly locals attending a wedding. Thus there is a justified level of outrage in Jordan. Even clerics are starting to say this goes against the precepts of Islam.
The message won’t be lost in other Muslim countries, either. Symphathy for terrorism (assuming there really was much) will decline. So it is possible that this will be seen as the point at which Islamic terrorism stops being a viable political strategy. The violence in Iraq is different. This is just a form of guerrilla warfare being waged against a stronger occupying force. Look at Algeria for a recent example of the same tactics.
The administration’s continual emphasis on “Islamic terrorists” blurs the distinctions between various political movements. The London bombers had different objectives than those in Jordan or Indonesia and lumping them under a single heading just makes for ineffective foreign policy.
As a US (and UK) domestic political technique to keep people fearful and have them not “change riders in mid-stream” it has been moderately successful so far. In spite of everything Bush still gets 72% approval among Republicans, so that is who he is appealing to. But the political forces in Jordan or Lebanon or Indonesia are different and we can expect to see some regional push back against Islamic fundamentalism as a way for rulers in those countries to maintain their leadership roles.
The point at which the pendulum has started to go the other way is always the hardest to observe.
Jordan is secretly letting set up bases to deploy into Iraq from and many many Jordanians are now contracting for us in Iraq. This is why the bombing happened. Most of your U.S. troops are having their meals prepared for them in the mess tents for Jordanians! Need to know the facts about it all before making such broad assumptions….many Jordanians are pissed that their country is doing for us what it is doing where Iraq is concerned!
set up secret bases to deploy into Iraq from. Most Americans don’t know this of course but Jordanians do and also Iraqis because it happening right in front of their faces.
So what you are saying is that because of one attack by Iraqis Jordan will stop being a client of the US. This is a position they have had for 50 years. What would they do instead to support their economy? They don’t have oil reserves to fall back on.
In addition, as you state, many in Jordan owe their livelihood to the US. Do you think some foreign attacks will be enough to make these people give up their source of income?
Terrorists only have “soft” power. They must get people to agree with their cause in order get this translated into political power. Trying to intimidate Jordanians as a way to get them to side with the Iraqi insurgents doesn’t sound like a practical approach. Indigenous “terrorism” as in Algeria is frequently (eventually) successful, but external attacks seem less so.
In any case, one of my points was that treating all forms of “terrorism” as stemming from the same (religious) cause is bad foreign policy.
As a matter of fact the only place that terrorism has been successful in changing policy is in the US. We have now re-oriented a large part of our domestic economy to anti-terrorism. Spending $50,000 per device on bomb sniffing machines in the NYC subway is just yesterday’s example. So much money has been diverted to this sector that other important programs have been weakened. The lesson of Katrina is that regular risks are much more likely, and have much bigger impact, than a few random bombs. This is a lesson the US has not yet learned.
Look, these people in these countries are all related and interrelated. We have very little concept of this in America……we are bordered by Canada and Mexico so people along those borders have more of a concept of it but the rest of us in the heartland have zero understanding that borders are only lines on a map. Jordanians were already jailed for a year by spilling the beans to the press about the secret bases…….they were outraged! Americans are very materialistic but the “have nots” are more about people. Iraqis did it and they are making a statement to Jordanians. These people have been culturally and blood linked since before the time of Christ……these are concepts that Americans have very little understanding of. Do I think it will affect the general population of Jordan….you “F”ing bet. They will be arguing this to the ground in the tea houses, and they probably ought to. Just because we are Americans gives us no special entitlements to shit in this world and it’s high time we began to understand that.
That’s the key Tracy. In a low-intensity conflict the population attitude is the most important. I don’t know what the attitude is on the Jordanian street and I am curious on which way it goes. If the Jordanian population is greatly offended, then it will go the same way it did for Che Guevera in Boliva: the locals turned him in. If it goes the other way, where the population sympathizes with this movement (call it terrorist or guerilla), then there is a definate problem for the King and ergo for current US interests like Iraq. It is amazing that the tide of war really comes down to Joe Farmer in any low-intensity conflict. That is why I believe US policy is suicidal; because if we continue to promote war (therefore death of the locals) we will absolutely lose. If we instead promote things like the peace corps, and ending poverty, and all those liberal things we have bleeding hearts about, then there is a chance of equinamity for these locals who will then in turn act as the Bolivians did when they turned in Che Guevera.
No disrespect to Che, I actually admire the man, but just stating facts.
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Right, the side of Arafat and the Palestinians, thinking Saddam Hussein was the best choice to balance powers in the Middle East in opposition to the Israelis. The King of the Hashemite dynasty, claims to be protector of an Islam Holy Place in Saudi Arabia and it was promised by Saddam to be returned under Jordan’s protection.
King Hussein had a huge Palestinian refugee problem, see also Black September and the root of years of terror as a result.
BBC News – Black September Plea to Israel
Israeli right-wing religious parties still have the biblical goal of Eretz Israel and do want to transfer all Palestinians across the Jordan river to the East bank.
Think one terror attack caused by U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq will change anything in Jordan? Don’t stop breathing. The Arabs know very well, the U.S. killed 100,000+ Iraqis in the past 2.5 years. Abu Ghraib will never be forgotten, just like the holocaust for the Jewish people across the globe. An early U.S. plan for division of Iraq and creation of a Hashemite Kingdom.
“Treason doth never prosper: what’s the reason?
For if it prosper, none dare call it treason.”
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I am in total agreement with you on this!
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Wants to create his version of the facts and history, see his service record cleaned up by Miers in Texas, the secrecy of VP Cheney and the Presidential records and files that will not become available for decades.
A raw indication also his latest speech on Veterans Day, declaring the Democrats are perverting the facts of going to war in Iraq.
George is moving from Ceasar Nero to Ceasar Caligula IMO!
“Treason doth never prosper: what’s the reason?
For if it prosper, none dare call it treason.”
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