by Larry C. Johnson (bio below)
The neocons who helped bum rush the United States into war are insistent that things are actually peachy keen in Iraq. It is just that damn liberal media who keeps spreading the lies and the bad news about the place. Oh really?
Consider the following:
The strife between the Shias and the Sunnis in Iraq is escalating. A dandy piece in today’s New York Times by Sabrina Tavernise lays it out in excruciating detail.
Two and a half years after the American invasion, deep divides that have long split Iraqi society have violently burst into full view. As the hatred between Sunni Arabs and Shiites hardens and the relentless toll of bombings and assassinations grows, families are leaving their mixed towns and cities for safer areas where they will not automatically be targets. In doing so, they are creating increasingly polarized enclaves and redrawing the sectarian map of Iraq, especially in Baghdad and the belt of cities around it.
But, it is not just the “liberals” bemoaning this fact. Consider David Brooks’ op-ed piece in the same newspaper. He notes that, “And what also drives violence in Iraq is that the Shiites have responded to Sunni supremacy by turning ultrachauvinist themselves. In the vacuum of security caused by the botched American occupation, these ethnic tensions have turned into a low-grade civil war.”
The other manifestations of the civil war are quite evident. Who can forget or ignore the Ministry of Interior torture center, which is under the control of Shia officials and dedicated to the proposition that the only good Sunni is a dead Sunni. How do the Sunnis respond to this? They bomb funerals. Shia funerals, that is.
So, how does the U.S. figure in this mayhem? Well, we’re organizing and training an Army and police force comprised largely of Shia and Kurds. That is a fact. These forces in turn attack largely Sunni communities. That also is a fact. Those communities, not surprisingly, believe the United States is engaged in a deliberate policy of extermination. That is not true but it is the perceived truth. In fact, other surrounding Sunni nations such as Syria, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia believe we have a secret plan to create this chaos as part of a broader strategy to gain control of the region for our own purposes.
We face a terrible choice. We cannot allow the purging of the Sunni to continue and have ourselves blamed as the ones directing this genocide. However, if we move to rein in the various Shia groups we will find ourselves battling Shia insurgents who so far have saved most of their wrath for the Sunnis.
… More below:
Hey, wait, it gets even better. If we are perceived as turning against the Shias we will face the monumental task of trying to protect our logistics supply line which runs south from Baghdad thru Shia communities to Kuwait. It is a vulnerability that military commanders understandably don’t want to talk about in public. Let there be no doubt that the major benefactor of the Shias, the Iranians, understand this point all too well.
The multiple threats we face in Iraq will not be solved by an election. The differences dividing the ethno religious groups in the territory of Iraq cannot be bridged by a group hug or a sit down around a conference table. We have ripped the scab off of an ancient wound and unleashed a beast that cannot be calmed through diplomacy. We do not have the force structure in place in Iraq to contain the burgeoning civil war. Instead, we are becoming pawns that each side of this ethnic quagmire will use to justify their particular agendas. The British learned the hard way in the 1920s. It remains to be seen if we are willing to learn anything from history or just destined to repeat it.
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Larry C. Johnson is CEO and co-founder of BERG Associates, LLC, an international business-consulting firm that helps corporations and governments manage threats posed by terrorism and money laundering. Mr. Johnson, who worked previously with the Central Intelligence Agency and U.S. State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism (as a Deputy Director), is a recognized expert in the fields of terrorism, aviation security, crisis and risk management. Mr. Johnson has analyzed terrorist incidents for a variety of media including the Jim Lehrer News Hour, National Public Radio, ABC’s Nightline, NBC’s Today Show, the New York Times, CNN, Fox News, and the BBC. Mr. Johnson has authored several articles for publications, including Security Management Magazine, the New York Times, and The Los Angeles Times. He has lectured on terrorism and aviation security around the world. Further bio details.
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So many of us, (even non-professionals like myself who just use common sense and curiosity to learn and understand what’s going on in the world around us), predicted pretty much all of this even before this stupid war was launched, and yet even now not only the neocon blowhards but most of the MSM still are not willing to acknowledge the forseeable nature of this cataclysmic disaster.
This institutionalized denial means the debacle will b
Must have hit post by mistake.
Anyway, as I was saying, this institutionalized denial only helps prolong and intensify the agony.
I knew you could.
Peace
That’s priceless, Dada.
The pending Iraqi Civil War will damage America’s standing in the world even worse than the current conflict. People will only remember we made it possible.
As a tragic aside, it will take down Tony Blair as well. A person who genuinely tried to do the “right thing” by backing the U.S. up in this misadventure, but who ended up hitching his personal history to the flaming wreckage of Bush 2.
As the old saying goes, things will get a lot worse before they get better. Of course that’s assuming they will get better.
Without the protection of US forces behind them, the ones responsible for many of the attacks won’t be able to continue as easily.
As sbj noted there are many of us who are not professionals in this field but can use common sense and reasoning skills. Given the history of groups covertly involved in Iraq, the combination of govt and private industry is likely responsible for part of these attacks. They seem to be used for asassination, instilling fear of cooperation, political/business advantages and further the fear/profits in the GWoT.
No-bid, no accountability contracts riddled with fraud are another source. The private companies training Iraqi forces who subsequently commit further acts against humanity are still reaping those profits.
The infighting is real as well as the influence of foreign fighters. I think much of the old regime has been absorbed into the new one and the Sunni (people) are being punished as covert forces set them up to take blame for some of these attacks. Attacks were noticeably quiet at election day when common sense says they would be at their highest. A covert bombing in the right city would result in relentless airstrikes against the current target of choice in the setup.
I think the citizens of Iraq are very tired of war, suffering and the killing. Civil war might be a welcome relief to what they’ve been enduring. At least the enemy would be more apparent.
By the way, just how many times can we kill Zarqawi?
“We must PULLOUT and then REINVADE! We need to free the Sunnis from the oppressive Shia! How can we allow this Sunni people to suffer? They are a minority and are oppressed by the Shia minority. It wouild be irresponsible not to REINVADE Iraq and free the Sunnis from Shia oppression!”
This I suspect could very well be the words of a future democratic president…….
Just leave these people alone. The world will not collapse if we just leave.