Early reports are that a secular Sunni alliance and a religious Shiite bloc are in the lead.
The Shiite religious coalition is leading in the polls in Iraq’s five southern provinces, the Kurdish Alliance looks set to win the north and a Sunni coalition leads in a central province, unofficial results showed. . .Arab News
In a speech, while thanking insurgents for remaining peaceful during the voting, Adnan Al-Dulaimi, the leader of the main Sunni election coalition National Concord Front (NCF)called for a coalition government to protect national unity in Iraq.
Science Daily, quoting The Washington Times, reports
The Iran-backed Shiite group the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution (SCIRI) in Iraq is said to have a strong lead in southern cities of Najaf, Basra and Karbala, the Times said.
The SCIRI is one of several Islamic religious parties that are collected under the umbrella of the United Iraqi Alliance (UIA) that is largely a Shiite compilation. Coming second to them is former premier Iyad Allawi’s Shiite secular party. Al-Dulami’s Sunni NCF is enjoying better results in Baghdad with reportedly 40% of the vote there.
In the north, as expected, the Kurdish Alliance (a coalition of he Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP) is dominating.
Clearly, Iraq has divided itself in this election along religio-ethnic lines. Iran has successfully exported the Islamic state idea when the thousands of Shiites who fled Saddam for refuge in Iran returned once their nemesis was deposed by the US-led invasion.
In spite of the divisions, joining Al-Dulami’s call for cooperation is outgoing Prime Minister Ibrahim Jaafari who said Saturday that Shiites and Sunni Arabs should work hand in hand in the new parliament. Jaafari, of the United Iraqi Alliance (UIA), is guaranteed to Parliament as the UIA is expected to garner the highest number of seats.
“To our brothers in Mosul, Ramadi and Tikrit, I say your brothers in Najaf, Karbala and Hilla have waited a long time to work hand in hand with you under the dome of the next parliament to build the new Iraq,” he told reporters.
Jaafari urged Sunni scholars to “use their position to spread principles of unity and freedom”.
He also called on Baathists to work with “their brothers” to rebuild Iraq. Islam Online
Cautious optimism for the prospects of a functioning elected government may be in order since the Sunnis participated in these elections in strong numbers, contrary to their boycott last February, because there was little violence associated with the actual voting day, and because there are no major complaints of election fraud, factors that may signal a readiness for stability and self-rule by the Iraqi people.
It is my view that the withdrawl of American troops as rapidly as possible will augment the possibility of success as the insurgency is largely a secular Sunni phenomenon, including many former Ba’athists. And the other solid opposition to our presence is the Islamic leadership in the five southern provinces. Both these groups will likely finish one-two.
You are making a lot of sense. I have seen several reports today suggesting a real interest for coalition building on the part of the sunnis (what choice do they have?).
BBC: Sunni leader praises Iraq ballot
I’ve heard or read in the news that the Sunnis’ main complaint is the presence of American troops in Iraq. I think by their participation and by the lack of violence from the usual Sunni insurgents that they mean what they say.
Further, I propose that BushCo. is ill-able to recognize a political concession when it’s offered. And, probably like you, I suspect the worst — that even offers of troop reductions by us in acknowlegment of the insurgents’ shift will not occur. Much less troop withdrawls of any kind within the next 6 months.
Now Bush has repeated recently the objectives that need to be achieved for American de-militarization of Iraq. An end to insurgency and political stability there are among them. While it seems to me, he has an opportunity to make his own conditions come true by a token withdrawl followed by meaningful wind-down, I doubt he or Condi has the political savvy to make any moves of that type.
Shall we place a bet?
DoD forces were ramped up by approx 20,000 for the election, and they’ve stated those troops will be withdrawn shortly after. I’d be watching for statements from the executive branch showing that in-and-out as a “drawdown”.
I’m not as pessimistic as you (though not an optimist either).
Rice: US sees conditions for troop reductions in Iraq fairly soon
AFP
Iraqi Leaders Call for Pullout Timetable:
I think the Iraqis will push for withdrawal, Bush will take the oportunity to do a symbolic reduction – at glacial speed, just to make the point that the situation improves.
This will not satisfy the insurgents, and the violence will continue – possibly escalate. Depends on how much power the new sunni parlamentarians actually broker.
Meanwhile, the Iranians will strengthen their grip on the Shia south. They have little sympathy for the more secular sunni views.
Arrg. Who the hell can predict! I’m slightly more optimistic because of the way the elections took place.
Limelite, can we trust the press reports on the election results?
First off — these are NOT official results, just preliminary “reads.” So, I guess one could say to trust the press on the election results is moot at this stage.
Notice the sources I used contain two Arabic/Islamic. Also, I caught a portion of NBC Nightly News and saw the same. I grant that one source is The Washington Times, the Faux News of the printed word, one could say. But the reports are coming out of many places in Iraq. And from what I can tell not many of the same different places. (Is that clear?) Perhaps it would be interesting to see what Xinhua has to say? (And that is nothing that I can find today.)