After the hospitalizing of the Israeli PM Ariel Sharon many are questioning the survival of the former general’s new political platform “Kadima”. Knowing the dynamics of Israeli politics and the many strong willed political leaders in the country the question is a fair one. Since its founding on November 21st 2005, the party has presented a political outline, emphasizing a two-state solution and the importance of Israel remaining a predominantly Jewish State based on democratic principles.
As Prime minister Ariel Sharon, being a “security-first politician”, came to realize that in order for Israel to move on and secure its borders for the future the Israeli-Palestinian conflict had to be resolved with a two-state solution. Not having what he perceived, as an authoritative counterpart to negotiate with amongst the Palestinian leadership, he chose to act unilaterally having Israel’s security first and foremost in mind. His first step was the disengagement from the Gaza strip and in spring 2004, Sharon presented his disengagement plan in a Likud party referendum, but the plan was rejected by the party members. Still, Sharon pushed through the disengagement plan against the wishes of the majority of the Likud party. Once again the former general had chosen to go his own way without the consent or approval of his colleagues in the Likud central committee, as he also had done during his tenure as an officer in the IDF. In going ahead with his plan Sharon’s motivations were strategic, as the Washington Post writes;
Through force of personality, deft tactical decisions and experience dating to the founding of the nation in 1948, Sharon has moved during his nearly five years as prime minister to establish what he believed would be more defensible borders for the Jewish state. By giving up the Gaza Strip and small portions of the West Bank, he also hoped to separate the fast-growing Palestinian population from Israel to ensure that Israel’s Jews remain the majority.
(…..)By leaving Gaza, Sharon may have guaranteed a Jewish majority in Israel and the West Bank for another decade.
But in order to be able to continue his unilateral policy, Sharon came to realize that he had to have a broader political base than himself and a few other Likudnicks and decided to break out of the Likud party and form a new centrist party. He managed to gather supporters both from the Likud, the Israeli Labour party and a few other prominent people within Israeli society and founded the Kadima Party.
The stage was set for the implementation of the new policies of Kadima and Sharon, but with the Israeli PM’s sudden illness the political landscape in Israel has become muddled and less predictable, and Yossi Klein Halevi, a senior fellow at the Shalem Center, a research institute in Jerusalem, sums it up by saying;
“What Sharon and Kadima were offering centrist Israeli society was the idea of unilateral withdrawal, posited in the realization that neither occupation or the peace process are real options. But unilateralism is the first casualty here,” he continued. “Only Sharon had the will and the clout to take the next step with unilateralism, which will be far more traumatic than Gaza with the evacuation of tens of thousands of the most ideological settlers.”
Halevi further reiterated that Sharon’s absence means that Israel “no longer has a coherent governing party,” a conclusion echoed by Israeli and Palestinian officials as they tried to make sense of Kadima’s future and predict the direction of the country’s two traditional movements, the dovish Labour Party and hawkish Likud.
The unilateralist approach to foreign policy in general and security policy in particular are not a new phenomenon in Israeli politics. Through the years when the Israeli government has felt its security threatened it has acted unilaterally and this has its causes in the geo-political situation in the Middle East with many years of high tension and violent conflicts. What is new is the unilateralist approach to the Palestinian peace process especially after the demise of the Oslo accords and the collapse of the Camp David negotiations between Yassir Arafat and Ehud Barak in 2000. Still, after the Kadima outline had been presented;
Sharon pledged to abandon unilateralism for the staged phases of the U.S.-backed plan known as the “road map,” with the eventual goal of creating a peaceful Palestinian state alongside Israel. He also promised to maintain major Israeli settlement blocs in the West Bank, as well as East Jerusalem, in any final agreement with the Palestinians.
Now, with Sharon out of the picture, a power vacuum has emerged and the stage has been set for a power struggle within the new centrist party. Whether this will materialize or not are solely depending on the skills and the determination of the leadership of the Kadima. If there is a will to succeed the new centrist party can survive and even prosper drawing on support from both the left and the right of the political divide. A good indication of such a determination and will to succeed, was the appeal by the former Histradut leader;
(…..)Haim Ramon, one of three Knesset members who joined Kadima from the Labour Party, urged members to rally behind Olmert, a former Likud member who as vice premier assumed power when Sharon, his close ally, fell ill.
Ehud Olmert, now acting Israeli PM, on the other hand, extracted pledges of support from almost all leaders of Kadima, who were handpicked by Sharon, while bargaining to keep the elder, highly popular Shimon Peres, who had lost the Labour primary and defected to Sharon, at his side, a man I suspect has had a more significant role in shaping of the new centrist party’s policy towards the peace process than is publicly known.
Statements presented to the Israeli newspaper Haaretz by Kadima politicians like Tzachi Hanegbi, the acting campaign manager for the new centrist party, suggests that the determination to stay within the newly formed party is strong even if it means without the leadership of Sharon. Hanegbi was quoted saying ;
“I don’t see any other party that can continue Sharon’s drive.” Hanegbi clarified that his support for Olmert as head of Kadima is unconditional. “I am convinced that Olmert has the skill and integrity to lead the Israeli public consensus,” Hanegbi said.
Even if most of Kadima’s members have rallied around Ehud Olmert there is some insecurity over where the former labour MK Shimon Peres will end up. Him not being a Kadima member yet, there are speculations over whether he will return to the Labour party now that Sharon’s leadership is out of the question, or whether he even might run for the leadership of the new party himself.
A survey poll conducted on Thursday 5th of January, indicated that the Kadima could win as much as 38 seats out of 120 seats, in the Israeli parliament, Knesset, in the upcoming elections, even if it meant a leadership without Sharon. If Shimon Peres was to challenge Ehud Olmert for the leadership of the party, polls have shown that Kadima could get as many seats in the Knesset as it would get under Olmert’s leadership, but a leadership contest now could mean the disintegration of the new founded party.
The last days statements from senior Kadima members supporting Ehud Olmert’s leadership, indicates that it’s more to Kadima than merely the political leadership of Ariel Sharon.
In the end the survival of the newly formed Kadima party depends on how well the Kadima members cooperate and pull together to keep the ship afloat. The survival of the Kadima Party is very much a Siamese twin to the peace process as it has been pursued under Sharon’s Premiership. If the Kadima party fails I fear that, in the short and medium-long term, this would mean the end of Sharon’s peace process, the only one that exist today.
This article is also available at Bitsofnews.com and Daily Kos
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A very optimistic coloring of Israeli politics, but not realistic. The Israelis in essence want peace and security, and seek and will support a strong leader because Israeli politics are in disarray. The national debt is high, cost of the military and occupation of Palestinian territory effects the Israeli economy. The number of Israelis living below the poverty line is extremely high, as I recall somewhere near 25%. The religious right have managed a financial stranglehold on Israeli society to gain a favorable position, due to the coalition forming of a majority cabinet with the Likud.
Not having a partner for peace within Palestinian society is just as much the responsibility of Sharon and Likud for stopping the peace process after the assassination by a religious lunatic of PM Rabin.
The strong call by Sharon, Likud and the Israeli lobby for an Iraqi invasion started on September 12, 2001. The upheaval created by Bush in the ME as a result, after decades of avoiding the negotiation for withdrawal from occupied land with the Palestinian Authority.
The realization of a future demographic meltdown forced Sharon to make a different move in a bilateral agreement with U.S. President George Bush. Indeed a unilateral decision, with no partner, just as General Sharon has performed his vision of duty to his country and neglecting to follow direct orders from his superiors, whether military or political.
Sharon will leave his nation in political vacuum, the Palestinian nation and ME in disarray. It’s time for the old generals to leave Israeli politics to a new generation. Shimon Peres at 82 years of age, should just retire and enjoy the last years of his life outside any sort of political responsibility. Peres too has failed during his lifetime to walk the path of peace with the Palestinian people, as he clearly showed the oppotunistic decision to leave Labor after his defeat to Peretz.
The corruption in Israeli politics is very similar to the Jack Abramoff and Tom DeLay GOP problems in the USA.
The poll numbers in Israel have little value, as emotions play an important role today. Sharon was not ready with the Kadima party, no deputy was assigned and a list of members for the election on March 28 was not yet ready. A very similar situation with Dutch politics and the death of Pim Fortuyn, the voters gave nearly 20% of seats in parliament to a new party with no leader. The coalition failed within nine months, and the LPF party desintegrated.
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Your comment has many good points. Still, I do think that the scenario I have portrayed is both relevant and realistic. Very much depend, as I have mentioned in my article, on the senior members supporting the leadership of Ehud Olmert, if they do, an many by the way have already done so, the Kadima party will become a power factor in Israeli politics. On election day we will see whether they have succeeded or not.
The Israelis in essence want peace and security, and seek and will support a strong leader because Israeli politics are in disarray.
Well I don’t agree with you that Israeli politics necessarily are in disarray and thus support a strong leader. Much of reason for why the Israelis traditionally have supported strong leaders, with a military background, has much to do with the geo-political situation with high tension and much violence, a political situation quite different from the tranquil Western-European democracies. I can agree with you that the Peace Process are in disarray and regrettably so, but the political system in the country is working well, as this crisis has revealed.
It’s time for the old generals to leave Israeli politics to a new generation.
As long as there are a significant and perceived possibility of war and violence, the Israelis will put security issues first and want leaders with a military experience to be in charge. When Peace is achieved in the region this may of course change.