by Patrick Lang (bio below)
“No consensus exists on a vision for Lebanon. Hizballah’s strategic alliances with Syria and, more significantly, Iran make improbable a serious dialogue on disarmament, which the party’s leaders consider an existential threat. Nor does Hizballah feel an urge to compromise, since it retains support among Shiites. The Hariri-Jumblatt tandem, in turn, controls a slight majority in parliament, but suffers from the physical absence of Saad Hariri, who lives outside Lebanon, fearing assassination. Moreover, Hariri is said to be under pressure from the Saudis to be more conciliatory with Syria, since Riyadh does not want events in Lebanon to destabilize the Syrian regime. The sectarian contours of the Hariri-Hizballah rivalry are sharpening, and while violence remains unlikely, the fight for Lebanon’s soul will continue for some time to come.” Michael Young
“Riyadh does not want events in Lebanon to destabilize the Syrian regime.” Sound familiar? (See earlier post on this subject) Lebanon is now an even bigger political mess than it usually is. … continued below …
Riyadh does not want Syria destabilized since Saudi Arabia believes it is close to achieving a dominant role in Syrian policy, but the neocons and their Lebanese and Israeli political allies DO want to see regime change in Damascus in the belief that general change in the political culture of the “Greater Middle East” would be good for the “natives” and GREAT for Israel. There is a certain tension among these groups. Caught in the middle are the career officials of the State Department under the idealistic leadership of “Miss America” herself, the CIA, and the armed forces.
This should go well.
Col. Patrick W. Lang (Ret.), a highly decorated retired senior officer of U.S. Military Intelligence and U.S. Army Special Forces, served as “Defense Intelligence Officer for the Middle East, South Asia and Terrorism” for the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) and was later the first Director of the Defense Humint Service. Col. Lang was the first Professor of the Arabic Language at the United States Military Academy at West Point. For his service in the DIA, he was awarded the “Presidential Rank of Distinguished Executive.” He is a frequent commentator on television and radio, including MSNBC’s Countdown with Keith Olbermann (interview), CNN and Wolf Blitzer’s Situation Room (interview), PBS’s Newshour, NPR’s “All Things Considered,” (interview), and more .
Personal Blog: Sic Semper Tyrannis 2005 || Bio || CV
Recommended Books || More BooTrib Posts
Novel: The Butcher’s Cleaver (download free by chapter, PDF format)
“Drinking the Kool-Aid,” Middle East Policy Council Journal, Vol. XI, Summer 2004, No. 2
I had another statment to make here but choose not to say it, but is Saad Hariri a part of the Brotherhood?
Saad Hariri is the son of the late Rafik Hariri, the former Prime Minister of Lebanon that was assassinated by the Syrians and their collaborators in Lebanon.
Saad Hariri is a highly secular politician that rose to political stardom on the surge of sympathy in Lebanon after the assassination of his father.
Sorry, the link was not that great, here’s a better one.
It is interesting that Saad Hariri made an election promise to rid Lebanon of corruption when his father was regularly accused of corruption, and is said to have expanded the vast business empire that his son now runs on the back of receiving vast amounts of reconstruction projects in Lebanon.
Apart from the reconstruction projects his father was often linked to having bought off Lebanese and Syrian politicians and even of having paid Lebanese delegates to ensure Syria dominated Lebanon at the At’Taif conference. He was very close to the Syrians for quite a long period. Cronyism was just another of the accusations made against Rafiq Hariri.
He also built a palace for Assad in Damascus and at one point gave Lebanese president Hrawi a palace just before the president appointed him Prime Minister. The attempt to buy out Gemayel out of the presidency and pay Syria to install Johnny Abdo only failed when Gemayel rejected the offer. Of course Abdo had agreed to appoint Hariri as PM.
All of the above may help to explain why Saad Hariri fears assasination. It is quite likely that the Syrians may actually be the least likely to try to kill him.
Saad Hariri also favors negotiating with Hizbollah about their armed status, and he also believes the Shabaa farms are Lebanese. Interestingly like his father Saad Hariri is a Saudi national and both have been seen as Saudi’s men in Lebanon. At the moment Saad has very little track record but it will be interesting to see if he follows in his fathers footsteps if he ver decides to return to Lebanon.
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I’m glad you are parroting a judicial inconclusive UN report, Israeli propaganda machinery, local Lebanese parties and the U.S. neocon foreign policy of State Dept. run by Condi Rice.
● Where is the Judicial Evidence?
● Hariri Killing – Chief Witness in Lebanon Retracts Accusation
● Hariri Assassination By Suicide Truck Bomb ¶ Mitsubishi Stolen in Japan
“But I will not let myself be reduced to silence.”
▼ ▼ ▼ MY DIARY
Well, at this stage it is the only thing I can do. I find it a bit futile to speculate without proof. The UN investigation may not be conclusive, but it is a result of an ongoing investigation. Besides, when the former Vice-President of Syria, Abdul Halim Khaddam,defected as late as spring/summer 2005 he linked the top leadership in Syria in general and President Bashar Assad in particular, to the assassination plot.
I am well aware of the US and Israel benefiting from Hariri’s assassination in a major way, but that doesn’t prove that they were the masterminds behind the plot. In fact Hariri had become a nuisance to the Syrian’s in due time before his assassination. He strongly propagated the withdrawal of Syrian troops and wanted to reduce the Syrian presence in Lebanese politics.
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Jury is pretty much still out on the evidence, will the truth ever unfold? The crime scene was not preserved by the Lebanese authorities after the bomb blast!
Former Syrian Vice-President Abdul Halim Khaddam says he wants to see President Bashar al-Assad ousted through a popular uprising.
Mr Khaddam told the BBC that Syrians were frustrated with the current regime and should be mobilised by the opposition groups in the country.
And he accused Mr Assad of being a traitor, denying he was one himself.
A UN inquiry implicated Syria in the murder of ex-Lebanese PM Rafik Hariri, but Damascus denies any involvement.
Speaking from Paris, where he has lived under protection since resigning his post in June 2005, Mr Khaddam said: “The Syrian people will take on themselves the responsibility for changing the government.”
“Public opinion is very frustrated and the Syrian people are quite unhappy,” he went on.
Seems just about as reliable as Chalabi and Iraq invasion and occupation!
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."▼▼▼ READ MY DIARY ▼
I don’t see anything wrong in that vision. Just because he’s opposing Assad’s rule he is excluded from being heard? He might have an agenda as you and I have our views on this issue and most of us have made our mind up and find article’s and stories to back it up. In this case I see his statements as coloured, yes, but as credible as many other views on this matter. As a matter of fact more credible than most since the man has got inside information on how the regime functions.
I have a greater faith in the UN backed investigation than any journalist or NGO proclaiming to be an expert on the issue. They have to come with better and more verifiable facts than just speculations to be credible in my book.
I don’t love the neo-cons or their views of the world, but I have to admit I don’t see their conspiracy behind every major political event in the world. It is a paradox that the aggressive foreign policy of this US administration is doing more harm to themselves and their agenda than they ever imagined. In the long run their own policy seems to be their worst enemy.
That kind of sums up the mess Lebanon has become.