Or so said our dear and humble President yesterday at the Grand Ole Opry. Which is why, of course we’ve begun serious, high level negotiations with them in Iraq. Because after all, sometimes your enemy can become your friend. And vice versa.
Indeed, it looks like we may very well be in the process of switching sides in the unannounced civil war between the Sunnis and Shi’ites:
US shifts Iraq loyalties
By Gareth PorterWASHINGTON – Two major revelations this past week show how far the administration of US President George W Bush has already shifted its policy toward realignment with Sunni forces to balance the influence of pro-Iranian Shi’ites in Iraq.
US Ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad revealed in an interview with Washington Post columnist David Ignatius that he has put the future of military assistance to a Shi’ite-dominated government on the table in the high-stakes US effort to force Shi’ite party leaders to give up control over key security ministries.
Khalilzad told Ignatius that, unless the “security ministries” in the new Iraqi government were allocated to candidates who were “not regarded as sectarian”, the United States would be forced to re-evaluate its assistance to the government.
“We are saying, if you choose the wrong candidates, that will affect US aid,” Khalilzad said.
Much more, after the fold, on Bush’s “New” Strategy to Win the War in Iraq (the one he didn’t speak about at his State of the Union address to Congress).
Implied in Khalilzad’s position is the threat to stop funding units that are identified as sectarian Shi’ite in their orientation. That could affect the bulk of the Iraqi army as well as the elite Shi’ite police commando units, which are highly regarded by the US military command.
Khalilzad’s decision to make the US threat public was followed by the revelation by Newsweek in its February 6 issue that talks between the US and “high level” Sunni insurgent leaders have already begun at a US military base in Anbar province and in Jordan as well as Syria. Khalilzad told Newsweek: “Now we have won over the Sunni political leadership. The next step is to win over the insurgents.”
As this sweeping definition of the US political objective indicates, these talks are no longer aimed at splitting off groups that are less committed to the aim of US withdrawal, as the Pentagon has favored since last summer. Instead, the Bush administration now appears to be prepared to make some kind of deal with all the major insurgent groups.
Didn’t hear this the other night from Bush’s lips, now did we? In fact, I’ve seen precious little coverage of this new policy at all, much less from major US media. It is, however, a fundamental change from previous statements (and actions) by this administration.
Previously, we have spent time, money and great effort to establish the new “democratically elected” regime in Baghdad, including the training and equipping of elite Iraqi police and commando units, comprised almost entirely from the majority Shi’ite population, which bear a remarkable similarity to CIA trained and supported death squads in Latin America during the Reagan years. Now we are demanding that “non-sectarian” elements (which I take to mean Sunnis) must be included in, and given command, of Iraq’s security organs? This sure doesn’t sound like the “stay the course” policy President Bush heralded on Tuesday night. What gives?
Thankfully, Mr. Gareth Porter, in his report in the Asia Times (quoting Newsweek as his source) provides the answer to that question:
The larger context of these discussions is a common interest in counterbalancing Iranian influence in Iraq. US officials are remaining silent on this aspect of the policy. According to Newsweek, however, a “senior Western diplomat” explains the talks by saying, “There is more concern [on both sides] about the domination by Iran of Iraq.”
US concern about the pro-Iranian leanings of the militant Shi’ite parties that will dominate the next government has grown as the Bush administration presses a campaign to take Iran’s nuclear program to the United Nations Security Council, with the military option “on the table”. A Western diplomat told Associated Press that the United States needed to find “some other allies who will not turn against them if things heat up with Iran”.
Even the possibility of a separate peace between the United States and the Sunni insurgency, which is inherent in these negotiations, signals to the Shi’ites that the US is no longer wedded to the option of supporting Shi’ite military and police.
Funny how lately everything comes back to Iran lately. Maybe Iranians are the “enemies” our dear leader was really talking about yesterday. What do you wanna bet?
Redha Taki, an official at party headquarters of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), which heads the ruling Shi’ite coalition, told the Christian Science Monitor’s Charles Levinson that the United States is only part of a much bigger coalition of interests opposing Shi’ite political power in Iraq, which includes Britain, the Iraqi Sunnis and the Arab League.
The common denominator uniting all those actors, of course, is antagonism toward the Islamic revolutionary regime in Iran, with which the militant Shi’ite parties in Iraq are aligned.
Gives a whole new meaning to the term “Coalition of the Willing” now, doesn’t it? So how far will Bush go down this new path to victory in Iraq?
Everyone is now waiting to see how far the Bush administration will carry its political realignment. These new moves suggest that the administration may have redefined its interests in Iraq to downgrade the importance of the fight against insurgency there in light of the larger conflict with Iran.
The logic of such a redefinition of interests would dictate a ceasefire with the Sunni insurgents. That would not only free the latter to fight al-Qaeda, but would alter the balance of power between militant Shi’ites and Sunnis in Iraq.
Going that far would conflict with White House assurances only a few weeks ago of US “victory” in the Iraq war. But word at the State Department last week was that Khalilzad, the mastermind of the new policy, has the president’s ear. And the new policy may be just what Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and other hardliners on Iran have been looking for.
Well, what’s good for Cheney and Rumsfeld must also be good for the rest of us poor slobs in the good old United States of America. When have they ever steered us wrong before?


Here’s the LINK
I wish I could get a better feel for this.
In some ways, this indicates to me that the administration has made some headway in dividing the Iraqi Sunnis, from the foreign fighters. If our goal is to pack our bags before the midterms, this would be a good thing.
To even threaten to withhold military aid right now would seem to indicate that we have some leverage. I didn’t think we had any.
On the other hand, if the goal is to maintain a high level insurgency, and keep the central government weak and dependent, this policy only makes a modicum of sense.
From a BushCo. perspective, we want to split the Persian Shi’a from the Arab Shi’a. It doesn’t really matter who gets appointed the the security posts if we cannot isolate Iran from the political leadership.
Personally, I think this pro-Iran rhetoric is overblown. I don’t think that the new government in Iraq is really pro-Iran in the sense that they support their form of government with a Council of Guardians sitting atop the parliament. I think the new government is looking to Iran as an ally, because all the other neighbors are hostile to Shi’ism.
It’s very hard to tell what is going on over there. After 4 years the history books are no longer much help.
Boo, my assessment remains the same. Iran is the next target. And if we do attack Iran (directly or through a surrogate like Israel) we will need cover for the resulting firestorm among the Shi’a of Iraq.
This isn’t part of some grand strategy so much as a play it by ear ad hoc approach by the Bushies in Iraq. If we were really focused on changing Iraq we wouldn’t be abandoning the reconstruction effort, and we would be increasing our troop levels, while also trying to broker a settlement between the Sunnis and Shi’ites. This looks to me like an effort to destabilize an elected government which we have decided doesn’t fit with our agenda because of their ties to Iran.
The most telling point? That the Pentagon’s goal for negotiations with Sunnis was to divide the less radical elements from those who are more dedicated to opposing the US occupation. That goal has been abandoned in the new strategy in which we are actively working on behalf of the Sunnis, out of a desire to weaken the Shi’ite majority, and through them Iran.
I see what you are saying.
It makes sense. Especially the ad-hoc part.
But given the same set of facts we can also give the following interpretation:
We are not trying to destabilize the government, we are trying to stabilize the country. This is how it works.
First we go to the Sunnis and tell them the truth. We are unhappy with how the elections turned out. We had hoped for both a more secular (our appeal to the Ba’athists) and a more representative (our appeal to the religious sunnis) government.
We tell them that we will do what we can do help them get important posts in the government that will prevent the Shi’a from taking all our military assistance money and turning it on the Sunnis.
Then we go to the Shi’a and say, “We gave you this huge majority government. Saddam’s in court. You owe us. If you want to fight a low level civil war for years, fine, but we are not going to give you heavy weapons to carry it out. If you want a real military you are going to have make these compromises.
Now, which of these two theories is the correct one? I don’t know. But either way, Iran is a problem. There is a cross-Atlantic consensus that Iran is a problem. We might not agree with that consensus, but it is there.
Iran is primarily a problem of Bush’s making. Is their nuclear program troublesome? Sure it is, but hardly more troublesome than Pakistan’s existing nuclear arsenal. Pakistan is one bullet away from being run by Islamic extremists who have more in common with Osama than they ever will with us. Yet no one has sought to impose UN sanctions on Pakistan, have they.
This isn’t about Iran’s nuclear ambitions so much as it is about the PNAC’s ambition to control the oil resources of the middle east. That’s why China and Russia have to date opposed any harsh rhetoric against Iran, and likely will oppose sanctions, because they do not want to see Iran’s oil secured for American interests, particualrly China.
We could have an all-day debate on this.
I agree with you that this entire struggle has an overlay of control to central asian energy supplies. It informs everything that is going on.
But, Pakistan and Iran are different countries with a much different relationship to the United States and Western Europe.
Iran is the country that has been in a low level war with the U.S. for 35 years. Pakistan is a country that was our ally against the Soviets.
We were insane to look the other way while they developed the bomb. That was the failure of non-proliferation right there. It was our fault.
Now we have to decide whether non-proliferation is a lost cause as a result of what happened in Pakistan.
It’s impossible to write coherently about this in a brief comment.
So, let me put it another way. I would agree that the threat of terrorism is really a proxy for a global struggle to control energy supplies. But I don’t agree that non-proliferation is a proxy for anything. Iran and the U.S. have been terrorizing each other for 30 plus years. We blow up each other’s planes, we assassinate each other’s intelligence officers, we plant bombs on each other, they attack our barracks.
We don’t consider them trustworthy to have a nuclear device. And you will never convince the American public that it’s okay for them to have one.
Bush can beat any argument with one sentence: “They want a bomb and they want to wipe Israel off the map.”
You can talk until you are blue in the face and you will never trump that one line.
But, there is a lot more validity underlying that cheap rhetoric than there is in his rhetoric about the threat of al-Qaeda, or the threat of the Iraqi insurgency.
This qualitative difference in validity in threat assessment is why we have support from Western Europe on this.
Given the past performance of the players on the US side, I think it’s pretty likely to be destabilizing the government. If the administration actually wanted to LEAVE Iraq, I’d go for the “trying to stabilize the country” option, but (sadly) I don’t really think that’s the case.
Now, which of these two theories is the correct one? I don’t know.
One word: Negroponte.
Your interpretation is valid, but only in a limitted way. If you include the vast amount of evidence accumulated over 50 years of cold war, or even just the Iran-Iraq war, I think you’d have to go with the “destabilize the Shia” argument. Iraq policy is in the hands of bona-fide Nixon-era cold warriors. I don’t know why they would do something entirely novel (and Wilsonian!).
So if I have this straight, now that the US has spent hundreds of billions of dollars installing a ‘democratically elected’ Shiite-dominant government in Iraq, we’re going to turn around and make them our new enemy (and get our friends from the UK and elsewhere to join us) so we can be more successful in the new venture against Iran?
I think we are now fighting (politically) on the side of the Sunnis to get them better representation inside the government.
By doing this, it gives the Sunnis less incentive to kill our boys (and girls). So long as we are lobbying on their side we have some leverage.
In turn, this works to isolate the foreign jihadis that are not interested in politics but only in killing. The ones the Sunni elders cannot control will get killed by the Sunnis.
That’s the sane interpretation.
The other interpretation is that we think we can turn this government into an anti-Iranian one by inserting a couple of Sunnis in important cabinet positions.
That’s like saying that we could moderate Bush by putting Dennis Kucinich in as Defense Secretary. DK would resign in about a week.
If the administration thinks they can garner support for bombing Iran into the stone-age by appointing a few Sunnis, they are nuts. But we knew that already.
Nothing is ever straight with these bozos.
Yep CG their whole Iraq policy is the equivalent to the Alaska bridge to nowhere. Thats if the bridge collapses during construction and takes 2000+ young American lives. Oh and during the collapse about 50,000 civilians are killed. When you think about it the bridge is actually genius compared to Iraq.
I predicted this a year ago and they killed me at Daily Kos for saying it. And here too a little. It is obvious. I may not be right in all my predictions but I cannot say I have been wrong about Iraq. They are switching sides because they are incompetent and crazy, first of all, and secondly they want to limit Iranian influence.
If you want an understanding of this situation read my blogs
http://bushphttp://bushplanet.blogspot.com/2005/07/iran-is-central-to-support-of-iraqi.htmllanet.blo
gspot.com/2005/02/us-to-switch-sides-in-iraq.html
http://bushplanet.blogspot.com/2005_07_01_bushplanet_archive.html
http://bushplanet.blogspot.com/2005/05/iraqui-insurgents-are-americas-natural.html
I put in the wrong links. Here they are.
http://bushplanet.blogspot.com/2005/02/us-to-switch-sides-in-iraq.html
http://bushplanet.blogspot.com/2005/07/iran-is-central-to-support-of-iraqi.html
http://bushplanet.blogspot.com/2005/06/whats-really-going-on-in-iraq.html
Stu that does make you look prescient. I thought we’d be going to war last year with Iran, but I forgot, that with Bush its all about marketing. Raising the specter of Iran makes much more sense for Bush in an election year than in an off year.
I also believe that, despite what all the experts have been saying since day one, they really believed they could create a secular pro American government in Iraq and use their new Iraqi bases to threaten, intimidate and attack if necesary Iran, Syria etc. The election of a fundamentalist Islamic religious party by the Shi’ites was simply discounted by them in their arrogance. Now they are forced to deal with it, and it should be no surprise that they have started to turn to the Sunnis to rescue their grand vision.
There’s something called common sense which is worth more than all the degrees and expertise that anyone can amass. Many in the neo-con group that thought up this Iraq scenario like Paul Wolfowitz come from academic families or small towns…I have noticed.
I mean if you know just something about how people think and react to things you could see that this invasion could never suceed. It would never be accepted.
I am so sorry that all this happened. It’s so awful.
What is crazy is anyone who still thinks the USA is going stay in Iraq forever and kick some Iranian ass too. There are persistent rumors that the USA will be out of Iraq by the end of the year. The USA cannot influence the coarse of events in the Persian Gulf; only blow things up or get blown up by IEDs. Continuous random explosions after awhile tend to hit a critical structure and the whole edifice collapses.
Closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a US Army mutiny, gas lines and stagflation, or surrounding of US Iraqi bases by Revolutionary Guards will end USA’s neo-Holy War. Unless the preferred outcome is the use of nuclear weapons and Armageddon rather than admitting defeat and withdrawing from the Middle East.
It is way too late for the middle ground of overwhelming force (Powell Doctrine). Iran and Iraq have been radicalized. All of active duty troops in the Western World couldn’t pacify the Persian Gulf now. The Bush Administration tried to capture Iraqi oil on the cheap and failed.
I think the better way of making your point is to say that the homefront will dictate what happens.
Bush is under a lot of pressure to show real progress towards a drawdown of troops before the midterms. And considering the devastation that would be done to his presidency should the Dems seize one of the houses of Congress (through investigations) it is critical that Bush do something to change the current mood of the electorate.
But, that doesn’t mean that all is lost for BushCo.
As I have trying to point out, the Iraqis need a modern military. And what is going on now is a negotiation over what concessions we want the Shi’a to make in order to get heavy weapons. Hundreds of billions are on the line, and the jobs of half the people of Washington state. So, this is no small matter. We desperately want to sell them tanks and planes and other gadgets. Forget the oil, we’ll eventually get that.
The Shi’a have the upperhand in these negotiations. No doubt. But we still have the right to arm someone else, or refuse to arm anyone at all.
Booman, you are correct, of course. Everything depends on the 2006 elections and the Democrats taking control of Senate and/or the House.
I and the Bush Administration are offspring of the Vietnam War. Their viewpoint is that LBJ and Nixon lost the war when they admitted to defeat and lost control of the media. In this war they will never admit defeat and will always present the President as the warrior chief and spew propaganda that victory is near.
We are only Kremlinologists shifting through corporate media’s droppings seeking the slightest glimpse of truth and reality.
Iran was the problem before we even went into Iraq. Just ask Israel.
It would be nice if we could have had a platform in Iraq from which to negotiate with Iran. Instead we have a bottomless pit.
All Iran has to do is continue with their sophisticated hot/cold negotiating game and playing one alliance off of another, and
=POOF!!= it will be too late for us to do anything. We’re broke.…we just tell them what to do.