Rove has announced that, contrary to the conventional wisdom, there is no chance for Democrats to win either house in this Fall’s mid-term elections.

But Rove confidently tells the Times that he isn’t worried about the troubles for the Bush Administration that a Democratic majority might bring.

“We won’t see how that plays out because they’re not going to win,” Rove said.

What could be making making Karl so optimistic about the GOP’s chances? Follow me below the fold as I speculate on what may be behind Rove’s cheery predictions.

1. The Whistling Past the Graveyard scenario. Hey, it could be that Rove is simply spinning to keep his own spirits up, and those of his loyal activist base who are essential to any Republican GOTV efforts this Fall. That is his job, after all, now that his policy portfolio has been taken away by Josh Bolten. In the NYT story he claims to be focusing on a three prong approach for hitting the Democrats: Health Care, Taxes and National Security.

However two of those issues are old news. Tax cuts has been the preeminent Republican issue since Ronald Reagan. I think it’s easy enough to counter that with the mantra that they’re only “tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans” and not the middle class. National Security is also a failure, and seen so even by Bush’s most loyal supporters, thanks to Iraq.

And Health Care is, to be frank about it, a winning issue for Democrats, not for Republicans. I can’t take Rove seriously when he claims that Bush’s Medicare D program will be an important plank of the GOP campaign strategy for this Fall.

He has focused in particular on uniting them behind the administration’s proposals . . . [on] the Medicare prescription drug program, which the administration says will cost $872 billion from 2006 to 2014 and which Mr. Bush backed enthusiastically despite complaints from conservatives that it was a vast expansion of the social welfare state.

As for Bush’s Immigration reforms, half his base dislikes the Guest Worker Program he’s proposed with a passion. I don’t see any chance of inspiring loyalty to GOP candidates if that is going to be part of Rove’s election year campaign. No, I suspect this is mere puffery on Karl’s part. A public relations release for his faithful stenographers in the mainstream press, nothing more.

2. The Down and Dirty Tricks Scenario. Karl is good at election campaigns and campaign strategy, particularly where it involves negative campaigning. It’s what he lives for, and now he has the time to devote his full attention to it thanks to Josh Bolten’s decision to relieve Rove of his White House policy portfolio. I expect to see a wave of smear campaigns targeted against Dem candidates (many of which are already in progress), as well as judicious use of wedge issues in certain states. Immigration in the Southwest, Rocky Mountain and Far West regions. Fears of Dem initiatives regarding gun control will be exploited wherever the NRA has a significant presence. Gay marriage and the homosexual agenda wherever GOP incumbents may be at risk. In short, everything necessary to turn off independent voters who might vote Democratic because of anger over Bush, while inspiring the GOP’s conservative base to turnout and vote Republican.

Add to the mix the usual assortment of GOP voter suppression tactics to be employed against the Democratic party’s base: voter registration challenges; phony felon lists; insufficient supplies of voting machines in Dem precincts; rumors spread of police arrests at Dem polling places; a prominent police presence outside minority polling places; phony ID requirements; and the possibility of election machine tampering and other chicanery.

Still, I doubt this would be sufficient, in and of itself, to make Karl so sanguine about Republican chances this Fall. Dems and their progressive supporters have had 3 election cycles now to prepare for these moves, and should have a better handle on how to cpmbat them. Further, add in a rising tide of voter resentment, particularly from their own core constituencies, anger which may very well lead to a much higher turnout among those committed to vote for Democrats rather than Republicans. Rove has to know that things will not go so easy for him this time. Which leads me to my third scenario . . .

3. The War/Terror Attack Scenario. Many of us expect that this scenario is the likeliest one to be behind Karl’s gleeful expectation for a Democratic defeat this Fall. The drumbeats for war with Iran have been long in the making, and will only increase in the weeks and months ahead. Bush, Cheney and Co. are following the same plan they pursued in 2002 with Iraq, with the exception that this time there really is a nuclear program in place, even if it may not be geared toward a WMD related capability. The fact that Iran’s nuclear program is still years away from completion will be dismissed, and fears of an “Islamofascist” regime obtaining nukes will be exploited to the maximum (notwithstanding that Pakistan, an Islamic state ruled by a wobbly military dictator which could easily slide into a theocratic regime ruled by jihadists with Al Qaeda sympathies, already has nuclear tipped missiles).

Still, for this plan to work, Bush will need something more: an attack on US forces in the Gulf (in Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE or onboard one of our warships) which can plausibly be pinned on Iran or one of its surrogates. Another “Remember the Maine!” or “Gulf of Tonkin” incident. Perhaps a couple of cruise missiles with purportedly Iranian markings would be all it takes, even if no US soldiers suffered a loss of life in the ensuing explosion.

Just imagine the jingoistic fever that would erupt across the cable news shows and in the mainstream press. And if such an attack occurred in late Summer or early Fall, all the better. Republicans would have a field day accusing their Democratic opponents of being weak kneed appeasers and terrorist sympathizers. You can hear their sound bites now: “Democrats wanted to negotiate with these Islamofascists in Iran? They would sell out our national security for a song and besmirch the honor of our troops who have died. You can’t trust them.”

Such an event would give Bush cover to attack Iran at a time of his choosing, while masking any coverage of Republican lies, corruption and incompetence. The conversation would have been changed dramatically.

That’s what I fear may be behind Mr. Rove’s cheerful prediction of Democratic losses this Fall. Call me paranoid if you will, or a member of the tin foil hat brigade, but can you honestly say that, in light of their history over the past 6 years, you feel confident that they would never do such a thing?

I can’t.