Polls continue to look dreadful for the Republicans. Charlie Cook says:
By virtually any measure, the Republican Party’s national poll numbers are at least as bad as Democrats’ were before their 1994 debacle.
Zogby says:
The war in Iraq has become so unpopular that it could cost Republicans control of Congress, statehouses and governor races around the country, national pollster John Zogby said Friday.
He said 70% of voters believe the U.S. is headed in the wrong direction, adding, “I have never seen a number like that since I’ve been polling.”
He said 68% of voters believe the war in Iraq wasn’t worth the loss of American lives. He added, “Americans want their wars to be won, they want it won quickly and their troops home and out of harms way.”
Larry Sabato says:
The problems bedeviling Bush and the GOP may get a bit better or a little worse, but they appear to be intrinsic to this election year. Therefore, the only real question is how many seats the Democrats will gain in the Congress and the statehouses, not if they will gain.
Things are looking pretty good. On Tuesday we’ll see if Francine Busby can win her special election in CA-50. She may have made a fatal error by seeming to suggest that she welcomed the help (and possibly even the votes) of illegal immigrants. In a close election, this is not what Busby wants voters thinking about three days before the vote.
Tuesday will also see a primary in Montana between John Morrison and netroots endorsed Jon Tester. Tester was once thought of as a long shot, but he is looking increasingly strong. He has picked up the endorsement of six out of the eight Native American state legislators. Here’s a good roundup of the race. If Tester wins, it will be a nice feather in the netroots’ cap. If Busby wins, it will be a good sign of things to come in November.
But polls don’t work, right?
Sigh. I’ve been having a series of emails with Farhad over his awful anti-RFK article contesting the thesis that the 2004 election was likely stolen. Farhad likes to pose as an impartial observer, but he’s just not. And I think, bottom line, he truly doesn’t understand the logical arguments in favor of the exit polls having been correct (logical as actual logic, not “common sense” logical. Mathematical logic.)
I think the fall elections will be a huge test of our election system.
Mr. Farhad. I read his ‘refutation’ of Kennedy’s point. Mostly hot air and he does not understand that ‘exit polling’ is not something the ‘uncivil’ blogosphere made up.
It’s based on statistical mathematics and the analysis done by many experts in that field and posted widely on the net show that the vote was manipulated. Mr. Farhad, like many of his mathematically inept or ignorant fellow citizens, lacks the tools to evaluate what was found. From my training as a physicist I can state with confidence that no amount of verbiage is going to change what the mathematical analysis of this election shows.
It was fraudulent.
As a an aside it’s great to be here in the green. Presently, the atmosphere in OrangeLand is execessively polluted with cries of ‘CT’, ‘tinfoil’ and all the rest filling the air.
Thanks. My take as well.
I’m not ready to write Farhad off just yet. I want to give him a chance to redeem himself after stabbing our Democracy in the heart. No one should have to live with that karma. As much as he irritates, no, infuriates me, there’s a part of me that likes him. He’s at least willing to engage, to debate his point of view. Whether he is capable of processing logic, and admitting error remains to be seen.
You are a good person. 🙂 Saving journalists, one karma at a time. It’s a dirty job, but. . .
Thanks. I won’t waste my time.
Welcome to the green, where we have (mostly) fresh, clean air.