It looks like Jon Tester won the primary in Montana. Very impressive. Got any election news?
About The Author
BooMan
Martin Longman a contributing editor at the Washington Monthly. He is also the founder of Booman Tribune and Progress Pond. He has a degree in philosophy from Western Michigan University.
SF Gate has some Oakland Mayoral initial returns:
Ron Dellums: 11,800 (44.3%)
Ignacio De La Fuente: 9,600 (36%)
Nancy Nadel: 3,948 (14.8%)
Those numbers are really interesting…primarily because Nancy Nadel voters are coming in at strong15% when they knew their candidate could not win. (I support Ron Dellums..and break down the race at the link.)
While these are just early returns, if that holds, that means Dellums will have to get 50% outside of the Nadel support to win the Mayoral open primary outright (ie. win the mayor’s race now)…a very tough prospect as Dellums and Nadel overlap supporters. It also means that De La Fuente, as likely as he is to get a run off, would have to win over the vast majority of Nadel supporters come November….highly unlikely.
Lesson for every single Oakland candidate: tonight it looks like Nadel voters (progressives, Greens, more White than Black, Asian or Latino) are the swing vote in this mayor’s race. Very, very interesting.
Just for the record…In the end, I voted for Nadel, even knowing she had no chance. I felt I had to make a stand for her progressive values. But, I am leaning towards De La Fuente next fall. While I really like Dellums, I like the business/home/commercial district that Jerry started and I want to see it happen. I don’t trust Dellums to make it happen.
What turned me to Nadel was a letter to the editor in the Oakland Tribune that said a run-off was inevitable and so a vote for Nadel was not a cast-off vote…it was a statement. So, those letters really do mean something. One got this voter to change her mind.
You wanted to make a strong stand for progressive values by voting for Nancy Nadel and you want the business/home/commercial district proposed by Mayor Brown?
You respect Dellums but you don’t trust him so your leaning for De La Fuente?
There’s something you’re not telling us I’m guessing.
For myself, I respect, but disagree with Jerry Brown and Ignacio De La Fuente. While I don’t think they’ve represented a strong stand progressive politics, I have agreed with and supported some of what they’ve accomplished. (Try this essay by Van Jones for an interesting take on that.)
If you ask me, however, if you want progressive politics and A VOICE in building the business/arts/commercial district the way you see fit, your best chance to get BOTH is with Ron Dellums.
De La Fuente will not shrink away..and neither will Nancy Nadel. They are both going to play a role in Oakland regardless.
However, we’ve got this one chance to elect Ron Dellums as mayor. Imo, we ought to take him up on it.
Quite frankly I don’t particularly like Dellums or De La Fuente. I’ve heard many decent arguments for De La Fuente like he will continue the rebuild of Oakland, which I think is essential (and of which my daughter’s school is a part). All Dellums seems to be offering is some ideas with no backing and no support. I like Ron Dellums, but I think he would be a better lobbyist than the mayor of Oakland. But, because so many of us voted for Nadel, you will have another 5 mos to convince me that Dellums can really represent the city. What specifically will he do to bring in business, housing, and reduce crime and take back our schools?
I’m not saying I know jack shit about this and I am totally on the wall. I voted for Nadel because I liked her, but also because I wanted a run off. Neither De La Fuente nor Dellums have convinced me that they can help this city.
You wanted a run off. And you wanted to send a message.
I think every person who voted for Nancy Nadel today did just that. ie. you sent a message that Nadel’s brand of progressive politics can’t be ignored in Oakland.
Vis a vis your take on Dellums. I hear you now. By talking about your daughter’s school and Mayor Brown’s development district you are saying you want specifics. You want a brass tacks level of detail, and you feel Dellums hasn’t given it to you.
De La Fuente certainly has.
That campaign mailer on De La Fuente’s positions was a VERY SMART move for his campaign (and probably the heaviest dang candidate mailer I’ve ever received.)
Now, I happen to disagree with some of De La Fuente’s approach and posistions. But I can definitely agree with you on this: if there is a run off, Ron Dellums will HAVE TO persuade people who voted for Nadel to win your votes.
Just being “progressive” won’t be enough; it will have to be with specifics. I hope the Dellums’ campaign gets this.
Thanks for the reply and the exchange of views.
Thanks KO. That does about sum it up. You’re totally right about that “book” that De La Fuente sent out. It was really impressive. It must have cost a fortune, but I have no doubt that it convinced a lot of undecided.
Wow…SFGate is now reporting that Dellums got 50.3% with 97% polls reportings. Wow. That means no run off and for better or for worse, Dellums will be the new mayor of Oakland.
and that’s a good thing. It’s still all absentee, and only 3,000 votes differential. This one is going to be too close to call for most of the night.
Busby is closing the gap abit
So is it basically safe to assume that Busby lost? With nearly 50% reporting and a 5 pt. lead, it doesn’t look like she has a chance. Sigh.
the numbers will probably hold since it’s a predominently Republican district. We’ll see if things tighten up, but I’m not going to hold my breath.
Live CA 50 blogging at Trail Mix GOTV,
and
CA SoS site: CA 50 Election Returns
Looks like a nail biter.
Proposition 82 would have guaranteed pre school education to all California children by raising taxes on those making over $400,000 per year. Apparently it is losing — 60% against.
I voted for it. But many of my liberal friends said, fix K-12 first, then worry about preschool.
I also think people see “raise taxes” and stop reading after that, which is really unfortunate.
Looks like the Library bond measure also died. Sigh.
I guess I was right about Alabamians being embarrassed to admit to a pollster that they’re voting for a woman. The race was a dead heat in the polls, it looks like Lucy kicked Siegelman’s ass in the booth.
Statewide Democrat Governor
3115 precincts out of 3240 precincts reporting. 96%
Candidate Votes Vote %
Lucy Baxley 274,341 59%
Don Siegelman 166,696 36%
Joe Copeland 4,095 1%
Nathan Mathis 3,956 1%
Katherine Mack 3,363 1%
James Potts 3,344 1%
Harry Lyon 2,467 1%