Tight Mexican Election

It looks like Mexico has been cursed with a Presidential election as close as Gore/Bush.

Andrés Manuel López Obrador and Felipe Calderón each claimed victory in Mexico’s presidential election late Sunday night, even though the country’s electoral commission said the race was so close it might not be able to announce the winner until Wednesday.

I also love how the Washington Post continues to drive hatred of the left. For example:

López Obrador, a populist beloved by Mexico’s poor, struck first, appearing before a bank of microphones and forcefully saying that “according to our information, we have won the presidency of Mexico.”…

López Obrador charmed voters with a mix of charisma and New Deal-style public works proposals that he promised would create jobs for millions of poor Mexicans and stem illegal migration to the United States…

…López Obrador, the candidate of the Democratic Revolutionary Party, or PRD, generated the most unease among Americans because of his populist agenda, which includes renegotiating parts of the North American Free Trade Agreement, and left-leaning tendencies that have drawn comparisons to such adversaries of the Bush administration as Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez and Bolivia’s Evo Morales.

I’d like to know who these Americans are that are uneasy about a charming, populist, New Deal style progressive President of Mexico, who is promising to stem illegal emigration from his country? Just because the guy wants to renegotiate NAFTA, we have to treat him like some kind of Stalinist. It’s ridiculous. I hope López Obrador wins.

8 Comments

on July 3, 2006 at 11:05 am

Philip Shropshire
http://www.threeriversonline.com

Greg Palast already thinks its stolen! I really hope he’s wrong because it would mean that we can beat fixed systems with an overwhelming vote response…

Here’s Palast:

Dispatch from Mexico City:
STEALING IT IN FRONT OF YOUR EYES

Matt Pascarella in Mexico City
Greg Palast in London

Monday, 3 July

Gore v. Bush. Kerry v. Bush. Obrador v. Calderon.

As in Florida in 2000, as in Ohio in 2004, the exit polls show the voters voted for the progressive candidate, but the race is “officially” too close to call.

But they will call it — after they steal it. Reuters News agency reports that, as of 8pm Eastern time, as voting concluded in Mexico, exit polls show Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of the “left-wing” Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) leading in exit polls over Felipe Calderon of the ruling conservative National Action Party (PAN).

We’ve told you again and again: Exit polls tell us how voters say they voted, but the voters can’t tell pollsters if their vote will be counted. In Mexico, counting the vote is an art, not a science — and Calderon’s ruling crew is very artful indeed. The PAN-controlled
official electoral commission, not surprisingly, has announced that the presidential tally is too close to call.

Calderon’s election is openly supported by the Bush Administration.

On the ground in Mexico City, our news team reports accusations from inside the Obrador campaign that operatives of the PAN had access to voter files which are supposed to be the sole property of the nation’s electoral commission.

We are not surprised.

This past Friday, we reported that the US Federal Bureau of Investigation had obtained Mexico’s voter files under a secret “counterterrorism” contract with database company ChoicePoint of Alpharetta, Georgia. (See BUSH TEAM HELPS RULING PARTY “FLORIDIZE” MEXICAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION)

The FBI’s contractor states that, following the arrest of ChoicePoint agents by the Mexican
government, the company returned or destroyed its files. The firm claims not to have known collecting this information violated Mexican law. Such files can be useful in challenging a voter’s right to cast a ballot or in preventing that vote from counting.

It is, of course, impossible to know if the FBI destroyed its own copy of the files of Mexico’s voter rolls obtained by Choicepoint or if these were then used to illegally assist the Calderon candidacy.
But we can see the results: as in the US, first in Florida then in Ohio, the exit polls are at odds with “official” polls.

In November 2004, US Republican Senator Richard Lugar, in Kiev, cited the divergence of exit polls and official polls as solid evidence of “blatant fraud” in the vote count in Ukraine. As a result, the Bush Administration refused to recognize the Ukraine government’s official vote tally … which proves once again that Republicans are incapable
of irony.

The foreign mainstream press has already announced, despite the polling discrepancies, that Mexico’s elections were fair and clean — which would be a first for that country where Obrador’s party has seen its candidates defeated by “blatant fraud” before. The change
this time is that the fraud is simply less blatant.

BooMan on July 3, 2006 at 11:28 am

So, I guess Palast is not an optimist.
- Arcturus on July 3, 2006 at 3:09 pm
  
  One of those ‘guys’ is ex-Clinton advisor & freelance political consultant Dick Morris, who has been heavily involved in the anti-Obrador (pro-Cardenas} PR campaign, esp. in the US, and the attempt to tie Obrador to Chavez.
  
  . . . the IFE winks at the intervention of non-Mexicans in the presidential campaign so long as they are working for Calderón – Spain’s former right-wing prime minister Jose Maria Aznar and his media hit man Antonio Sola, Fox News commentator and “political consultant” Dick Morris – but international observers who might side with López Obrador are warned that they can be expelled from the country under Article 33 of the Mexican Constitution if they interfere in the electoral process. link
  
  We may not remember, but Mexicans won’t forget that the 1988 election was stolen. It’s a tense, dangerous situation down there right now. Don’t forget that Fox tried to keep Obrador off the ballot by having him arreted under trumped up charges, & it was only through street demonstrations that they were thrown out.
  
  XicanoPwr had an excellent diary yesterday detailing the election.
  
  John Ross, who is a pretty level headed guy, & has followed Mexcian politics for years, wrote the other day in Mexico on the Brink:
  
  The consensus of the pundits is that although Lopez Obrador has pulled ahead by three points in late polling, this is still a very close election that could be decided by a 100,000 votes or less out of an expected 43,000,000 ballots cast and the IFE, which in the last days of the campaign has been lacerated by charges of favoritism and cooking the vote, will be in the eye of the storm.
  
  Should Lopez Obrador be denied victory, a conclusion that his followers are not likely to swallow, or should the system “collapse” as it did in 1988 to deny leftist Cuauhtemoc Cardenas victory, or if the numbers come up slow with no clear winner emerging for days, Lopez Obrador’s people, with or without their fearless leader, will go into the streets. And it won’t be a movie.
  
  Let’s hope that the situation remains calm, that the IFE can conduct itself in a transparent manner, and that Obrador is able to enjoy a clear-cut victory. The turn-out for this was more than 60%.
  - BooMan on July 3, 2006 at 3:28 pm
    
    thanks for the rundown. I’ve had CNN on for hours and haven’t learned a thing.
    - Cali Scribe on July 3, 2006 at 5:28 pm
      
      around here has had some decent (though a bit skimpy) coverage of the Mexican elections, mainly because of the large Hispanic community around here — many folks made the trek down to vote this weekend.
      
      One report I heard last night is that in some Mexico City precincts voters had to be turned away because they ran out of ballots. Gee, I didn’t know Ohio election officials were moonlighting… 😉
      
      And remember, this Administration is in favor of democracy…but only if they like the results…

PsiFighter37 on July 3, 2006 at 11:51 am

I don’t know much about Mexican politics that would be useful nowadays (my AP gov’t class covered Mexican gov’t, but it didn’t really help much, given that the PRI is no longer dominant), but hopefully, Lopez Obrador wins.

sjct on July 3, 2006 at 12:28 pm

a charming, populist, New Deal style progressive

I want to vote for someone like that, too!

on July 3, 2006 at 1:49 pm

Dream on. You’re probably getting Hillary vs. McCain…

on July 3, 2006 at 11:05 am

Philip Shropshire
http://www.threeriversonline.com

Greg Palast already thinks its stolen! I really hope he’s wrong because it would mean that we can beat fixed systems with an overwhelming vote response…

Here’s Palast:

Dispatch from Mexico City:
STEALING IT IN FRONT OF YOUR EYES

Matt Pascarella in Mexico City
Greg Palast in London

Monday, 3 July

Gore v. Bush. Kerry v. Bush. Obrador v. Calderon.

As in Florida in 2000, as in Ohio in 2004, the exit polls show the voters voted for the progressive candidate, but the race is “officially” too close to call.

But they will call it — after they steal it. Reuters News agency reports that, as of 8pm Eastern time, as voting concluded in Mexico, exit polls show Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of the “left-wing” Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) leading in exit polls over Felipe Calderon of the ruling conservative National Action Party (PAN).

We’ve told you again and again: Exit polls tell us how voters say they voted, but the voters can’t tell pollsters if their vote will be counted. In Mexico, counting the vote is an art, not a science — and Calderon’s ruling crew is very artful indeed. The PAN-controlled
official electoral commission, not surprisingly, has announced that the presidential tally is too close to call.

Calderon’s election is openly supported by the Bush Administration.

On the ground in Mexico City, our news team reports accusations from inside the Obrador campaign that operatives of the PAN had access to voter files which are supposed to be the sole property of the nation’s electoral commission.

We are not surprised.

This past Friday, we reported that the US Federal Bureau of Investigation had obtained Mexico’s voter files under a secret “counterterrorism” contract with database company ChoicePoint of Alpharetta, Georgia. (See BUSH TEAM HELPS RULING PARTY “FLORIDIZE” MEXICAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION)

The FBI’s contractor states that, following the arrest of ChoicePoint agents by the Mexican
government, the company returned or destroyed its files. The firm claims not to have known collecting this information violated Mexican law. Such files can be useful in challenging a voter’s right to cast a ballot or in preventing that vote from counting.

It is, of course, impossible to know if the FBI destroyed its own copy of the files of Mexico’s voter rolls obtained by Choicepoint or if these were then used to illegally assist the Calderon candidacy.
But we can see the results: as in the US, first in Florida then in Ohio, the exit polls are at odds with “official” polls.

In November 2004, US Republican Senator Richard Lugar, in Kiev, cited the divergence of exit polls and official polls as solid evidence of “blatant fraud” in the vote count in Ukraine. As a result, the Bush Administration refused to recognize the Ukraine government’s official vote tally … which proves once again that Republicans are incapable
of irony.

The foreign mainstream press has already announced, despite the polling discrepancies, that Mexico’s elections were fair and clean — which would be a first for that country where Obrador’s party has seen its candidates defeated by “blatant fraud” before. The change
this time is that the fraud is simply less blatant.
- BooMan on July 3, 2006 at 11:28 am
  
  So, I guess Palast is not an optimist.
  - Arcturus on July 3, 2006 at 3:09 pm
    
    One of those ‘guys’ is ex-Clinton advisor & freelance political consultant Dick Morris, who has been heavily involved in the anti-Obrador (pro-Cardenas} PR campaign, esp. in the US, and the attempt to tie Obrador to Chavez.
    
    . . . the IFE winks at the intervention of non-Mexicans in the presidential campaign so long as they are working for Calderón – Spain’s former right-wing prime minister Jose Maria Aznar and his media hit man Antonio Sola, Fox News commentator and “political consultant” Dick Morris – but international observers who might side with López Obrador are warned that they can be expelled from the country under Article 33 of the Mexican Constitution if they interfere in the electoral process. link
    
    We may not remember, but Mexicans won’t forget that the 1988 election was stolen. It’s a tense, dangerous situation down there right now. Don’t forget that Fox tried to keep Obrador off the ballot by having him arreted under trumped up charges, & it was only through street demonstrations that they were thrown out.
    
    XicanoPwr had an excellent diary yesterday detailing the election.
    
    John Ross, who is a pretty level headed guy, & has followed Mexcian politics for years, wrote the other day in Mexico on the Brink:
    
    The consensus of the pundits is that although Lopez Obrador has pulled ahead by three points in late polling, this is still a very close election that could be decided by a 100,000 votes or less out of an expected 43,000,000 ballots cast and the IFE, which in the last days of the campaign has been lacerated by charges of favoritism and cooking the vote, will be in the eye of the storm.
    
    Should Lopez Obrador be denied victory, a conclusion that his followers are not likely to swallow, or should the system “collapse” as it did in 1988 to deny leftist Cuauhtemoc Cardenas victory, or if the numbers come up slow with no clear winner emerging for days, Lopez Obrador’s people, with or without their fearless leader, will go into the streets. And it won’t be a movie.
    
    Let’s hope that the situation remains calm, that the IFE can conduct itself in a transparent manner, and that Obrador is able to enjoy a clear-cut victory. The turn-out for this was more than 60%.
    - BooMan on July 3, 2006 at 3:28 pm
      
      thanks for the rundown. I’ve had CNN on for hours and haven’t learned a thing.
      - Cali Scribe on July 3, 2006 at 5:28 pm
        
        around here has had some decent (though a bit skimpy) coverage of the Mexican elections, mainly because of the large Hispanic community around here — many folks made the trek down to vote this weekend.
        
        One report I heard last night is that in some Mexico City precincts voters had to be turned away because they ran out of ballots. Gee, I didn’t know Ohio election officials were moonlighting… 😉
        
        And remember, this Administration is in favor of democracy…but only if they like the results…
PsiFighter37 on July 3, 2006 at 11:51 am

I don’t know much about Mexican politics that would be useful nowadays (my AP gov’t class covered Mexican gov’t, but it didn’t really help much, given that the PRI is no longer dominant), but hopefully, Lopez Obrador wins.
sjct on July 3, 2006 at 12:28 pm

a charming, populist, New Deal style progressive

I want to vote for someone like that, too!
- on July 3, 2006 at 1:49 pm
  
  Dream on. You’re probably getting Hillary vs. McCain…

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