Everything looks bad for the Republicans and there is not much they can do in the few short months before November to turn things around. But there is one thing that they can seize on that will divide the left and cause it it to turn on itself. That thing, is Israel. I am not even going to speculate about elaborate conspiracies wherein the Israelis launched an attack on Lebanon in order to save the Republicans bacon. It could be the case, but it doesn’t really matter. What’s matters is that the Israelis have acted and the Dems are on the defensive. The Weekly Standard lays it all out.

For their purposes, they note that the Daily Kos front pagers are not discussing the issue:

Combined, the half dozen front-pagers have written exactly one post on the subject. And that post, authored by Moulitsas, simply declared that he wouldn’t write anything further on the subject. So while the most important story of the year develops, the nation’s leading progressive blog has chosen to focus on the Indiana second district House race between Chris Chocola and Joe Donnelly. Nothing wrong with that; it’s their prerogative to blog about whatever they like.

But inside the Kos diaries, it’s been a different story. The conversation in the diaries has been overwhelmingly anti-Israel–and potentially disastrous for the Democratic party.

It’s not only Markos, but Kevin Drum, Josh Marshall and others that have explained their unwillingness to discuss the conflagration in Israel. The rationale varies, but the underlying problem is the same. The left wing in this country is generally critical of Israel’s settlement policy and supportive of a negotiated settlement along the lines laid out by Bill Clinton in 2000. Yet, the vast majority of American Jews are Democratic voters and important as activists and fundraisers for the party.

There is no better way to splinter the left than to put the behavior of Israel front and center in the national debate. The Republicans will offer their uncritical support for anything Israel does, and the left will flounder about trying to appear fair and balanced. There will be no shortage of anti-Israel comments to cite emerging from the left blogosphere, even if only from the diaries of community sites and the comments. And, no matter what “big-name” bloggers try to do in the way of coordinating the message, there will be plenty of ammunition to bring to the Jewish community as evidence of ambivalence or distaste for Israel from the left.

Given a choice between unambiguous support and hostile condemnation, many Jews will be drawn into the GOP tent. That is the strategy, and as far as I can tell, it is nearly foolproof.

All that is required is that Israel is engaged in combat. If it goes badly, it works all that much better, as Israel supporters become concerned and seek a certitude in political support.

Bloggers will supply differing reasons from shying away from this debate. Josh Marshall, for example, will say that it is divisive. Drum says he is not an expert. The reality is more complicated. This is not friendly terrain.

At Booman Tribune, we will continue to cover this story as we see it. But I am under no illusions. I have already been attacked for anti-Semitism. The Weekly Standard has already been trolling through the orange threads for the most inflammatory anti-Israeli comments. Our politicians are completely prostrate before such accusations.

The Dems are caught in a vice. To ask Israel to act in accordance with international standards of human rights in not currently possible. To fail to ask them to do so is enfeebling, emasculating, and empowering to the insane neo-conservative agenda.

We are being beseiged by an insurmountable political tsunami, and whether that tsunami is confronting us by way of cynical calculation or merely by chance hardly matters. What matters is that we cannot defeat it.

The country is opposed to that actions of Israel, but that is not remotely reflected in the sense of Congress.

We are left with the reality-based community:

“We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you’re studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we’ll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that’s how things will sort out. We’re history’s actors . . . and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do.”

Just to be clear: Israel’s government has the responsibility and the obligation to take actions that will protect their citizens and provide them with security. Only the most hardline critics of Israel will argue otherwise. But we are not even allowed to critique Israel’s strategy without assuring the alienation of an important part of our base and activist community. The reason is not that the Jewish community is not capable of making nuanced distinctions. In fact, they excel at that practice. The reason is that there are only 8 politicians in the entire House of Represenatives that are courageous enough to take a position remotely aligned with over 80% of the non-American, non-Israeli world. We have no allies. No one is standing with us. We speak out and we get called anti-Semites, or the supporters of terrorists. We get painted with the same brush as the most anti-Israel commenters in our threads.

What Israel is doing makes no sense and will not bring them greater security. It is doing grave harm to America’s position in the world. I’ll say it and take my lumps. I’ll say it knowing that I’ll get called an anti-Semite. I’ll say it knowing that Karl Rove has me cornered and that all my work will be sacrificed on the altar of of Israel versus the other. He’s not a bad tactician, after all.