Record Turnout in Connecticut Expected

As high as 40% of eligible voters may turnout to vote in the Democratic primary today (as opposed to the more usual 25%), according to Connecticut’s Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz:

With a historic U.S. Senate race on the ballot and a choice for governor, state and local elections officials say a record number of Connecticut Democrats could head to the polls today to vote in the party’s primary.

In a race widely regarded as a referendum on the Iraq war, Sen. Joe Lieberman is facing possible exile from the party that chose him as its vice presidential candidate in 2000. Lieberman, a key Democrat who backed the war, trails Greenwich cable television entrepreneur Ned Lamont in the polls entering today’s primary. […]

“You can’t turn on the television, pick up the newspaper or listen to the radio and not know there’s a primary,” Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz said.

A Democrat who is in charge of all elections in the state, Bysiewicz said turnout for the primary could reach 40 percent, well above the 25 percent historic average for primaries featuring a governor’s race on the ballot.

I’ll go on record as predicting this is good news for Lamont. It means a lot of people who never bother to vote in primaries are suddenly engaged enough to go to the polls. And I don’t think the chance to confirm Jolting Joe Lieberman as their party’s candidate for a 4th time is the reason. I think that this really is a referendum on the Iraq war in the minds of many of these new primary voters.

Of course, I may be overly optimistic. We shall see. But if I were Senator Lieberman, I’d start preparing that concession/”I’m running as a candidate for the Connecticut for Lieberman Party so the voters can kick me to the curb again in November” speech if I were him.

14 Comments

redwagon on August 8, 2006 at 4:19 pm

It’s just a short taxi ride to the nearest polling place, to paraphrase Lieberman’s advice to rape victims.

The race is not over. The proverbial fat lady has not sung. IF WE LOSE, EXPECT INVASION OF IRAN. That we have not invaded Iran is because China has our currency in its effective control. China does not want the US to invade Iran. So we have this brutal, pointless proxy war. But the proxy and the invade Iran talk will fade fast if they do not keep Joe in office.

As so often the case, the focus on the horse race in the MSM fails to reflect that this is truly a vote for life or death.

Heart of the Rockies on August 8, 2006 at 4:26 pm

Steven D on August 8, 2006 at 11:48 pm

Right enough I guess.

🙂

BooMan on August 8, 2006 at 4:32 pm

From firedog

FYI: Colin McEnroe just noted that the Secretary of State had projected 40% turnout this morning, and has now upped it to 50-55%,
which is unheard of.

Steven D on August 8, 2006 at 4:36 pm

That’s a damn good turnout for the general election, much less a mere primary.

DaveW on August 8, 2006 at 4:36 pm

Hmm…call me a gloomball, but this strikes me as a little scary. Joe’s ratings among Dems weren’t THAT low to account for such a stampede. Could be a bunch of Reps becoming first-time voters in a Dem primary. Well we shall soon see. What time do the CT polls close, anyway?

Steven D on August 8, 2006 at 4:49 pm

Repubs had to change their party affiliation back in May, before Lamont’s campaign caught fire. These are all voters who changed from “unaffiliated” to Dem.
- DaveW on August 8, 2006 at 5:01 pm
  
  Good to know, Steven. So the huge turnout is either Dems who normally don’t vote primaries but now feel a need to defend the status quo (one for Joe), or Indies who want the status quo to go away (one for Ned). I suppose we won’t know the final results til morning unless there’s a blowout one way or the other.
Steven D on August 8, 2006 at 4:50 pm

Also, polls close at 8 pm.
BooMan on August 8, 2006 at 4:59 pm

Joe fucked up by lowering expectations. Only by seeming to be a winner could he make the case that Lamont was implausible and unqualified. He also fucked up by announcing he would run independent. Who votes for a guy that won’t respect your vote?

I highly doubt, at this point, that the high turnout is to save Joe. They are all unaffiliated voters and normally disengaged Dems.

Some moderates are coming out for Joe, no doubt, but I’m betting greens are coming out in droves.

mbair on August 8, 2006 at 5:39 pm

Hotline has this:

Super Tuesday Donut Hole

The 2006 Connecticut Democratic primary, according to one pollster who has been monitoring turnout today is turning into a “donut primary.” The suburbs are outstripping Democratic cities in voter interest in the race between Joe Lieberman and Ned Lamont. Lieberman has been counting on voters in the state’s cities to overcome the advantage Lamont is expected to show in liberal suburban voting. That may not be happening. In the Democratic redoubt of East Hartford, one of the state’s most reliably Democratic towns, the turnout was 20% at 1 pm, reassuring Lamont’s campaign that moderate, blue collar Democrats may not be as interested in supporting Lieberman as liberals in more affluent communities are in turning him out. [KEVIN F. RENNIE]

So if this is a 40% turnout and I’m not saying it isn’t then it’s a Lamont route because Lieberman’s people are no shows.

mbair on August 8, 2006 at 5:43 pm

Forgot this one from Hotline also:

A Husky High For Lamont?

Home to the UCONN Huskies, Mansfield is among CT’s most liberal towns. It regularly gives 30%+ margins to Dem candidates.

It is a place where anti-war sentiments run high — even when the nation is not at war. The kind of place, in short, where Lamont ought to do quite well.

But will voters from a college town turnout in the dead of August, with many students and professors away?

Apparently yes, says Mansfield’s Democratic Registrar Andrea Epling.

“This is unbelievable,” said Epling about about 4 o’clock. With some wonderment in her voice, Epling said she and others in the Town Hall were digging through old primary results to find a comparison. She said the closest thing they could find was the ’92 Dem PRESIDENTIAL contest when Jerry Brown upended Bill Clinton and 173K CT residents voted.

Epling reported that as of just after 1 p.m., Mansfield’s three precincts were reporting turnout of 25.5%, 30% and 33%. And, she added, voter turnout had picked up since then.

Asked if turnout would thus crest the 50% mark, she replied, “Oh yes, it will probably get closer to 80%.”

UPDATE: Epling reports that as of 4:30, the three precincts were now reporting turnout of 38%, 45% and 48%. Asked what the final numbers would be for the whole town, Epling stuck to her prediction of around 80%, noting that they had over 200 absentee ballots in hand.

[JONATHAN MARTIN]

GreenSooner on August 8, 2006 at 6:27 pm

We won’t know anything until they count the votes. And even then, we might not know the truth…

growthrate on August 8, 2006 at 8:16 pm

Has Joe’s victory party started yet, or are they still Blackwelling the voting machines?

redwagon on August 8, 2006 at 4:19 pm

It’s just a short taxi ride to the nearest polling place, to paraphrase Lieberman’s advice to rape victims.

The race is not over. The proverbial fat lady has not sung. IF WE LOSE, EXPECT INVASION OF IRAN. That we have not invaded Iran is because China has our currency in its effective control. China does not want the US to invade Iran. So we have this brutal, pointless proxy war. But the proxy and the invade Iran talk will fade fast if they do not keep Joe in office.

As so often the case, the focus on the horse race in the MSM fails to reflect that this is truly a vote for life or death.
Heart of the Rockies on August 8, 2006 at 4:26 pm
- Steven D on August 8, 2006 at 11:48 pm
  
  Right enough I guess.
  
  🙂
BooMan on August 8, 2006 at 4:32 pm

From firedog

FYI: Colin McEnroe just noted that the Secretary of State had projected 40% turnout this morning, and has now upped it to 50-55%,
which is unheard of.
- Steven D on August 8, 2006 at 4:36 pm
  
  That’s a damn good turnout for the general election, much less a mere primary.
DaveW on August 8, 2006 at 4:36 pm

Hmm…call me a gloomball, but this strikes me as a little scary. Joe’s ratings among Dems weren’t THAT low to account for such a stampede. Could be a bunch of Reps becoming first-time voters in a Dem primary. Well we shall soon see. What time do the CT polls close, anyway?
- Steven D on August 8, 2006 at 4:49 pm
  
  Repubs had to change their party affiliation back in May, before Lamont’s campaign caught fire. These are all voters who changed from “unaffiliated” to Dem.
  - DaveW on August 8, 2006 at 5:01 pm
    
    Good to know, Steven. So the huge turnout is either Dems who normally don’t vote primaries but now feel a need to defend the status quo (one for Joe), or Indies who want the status quo to go away (one for Ned). I suppose we won’t know the final results til morning unless there’s a blowout one way or the other.
- Steven D on August 8, 2006 at 4:50 pm
  
  Also, polls close at 8 pm.
- BooMan on August 8, 2006 at 4:59 pm
  
  Joe fucked up by lowering expectations. Only by seeming to be a winner could he make the case that Lamont was implausible and unqualified. He also fucked up by announcing he would run independent. Who votes for a guy that won’t respect your vote?
  
  I highly doubt, at this point, that the high turnout is to save Joe. They are all unaffiliated voters and normally disengaged Dems.
  
  Some moderates are coming out for Joe, no doubt, but I’m betting greens are coming out in droves.
mbair on August 8, 2006 at 5:39 pm

Hotline has this:

Super Tuesday Donut Hole

The 2006 Connecticut Democratic primary, according to one pollster who has been monitoring turnout today is turning into a “donut primary.” The suburbs are outstripping Democratic cities in voter interest in the race between Joe Lieberman and Ned Lamont. Lieberman has been counting on voters in the state’s cities to overcome the advantage Lamont is expected to show in liberal suburban voting. That may not be happening. In the Democratic redoubt of East Hartford, one of the state’s most reliably Democratic towns, the turnout was 20% at 1 pm, reassuring Lamont’s campaign that moderate, blue collar Democrats may not be as interested in supporting Lieberman as liberals in more affluent communities are in turning him out. [KEVIN F. RENNIE]

So if this is a 40% turnout and I’m not saying it isn’t then it’s a Lamont route because Lieberman’s people are no shows.
mbair on August 8, 2006 at 5:43 pm

Forgot this one from Hotline also:

A Husky High For Lamont?

Home to the UCONN Huskies, Mansfield is among CT’s most liberal towns. It regularly gives 30%+ margins to Dem candidates.

It is a place where anti-war sentiments run high — even when the nation is not at war. The kind of place, in short, where Lamont ought to do quite well.

But will voters from a college town turnout in the dead of August, with many students and professors away?

Apparently yes, says Mansfield’s Democratic Registrar Andrea Epling.

“This is unbelievable,” said Epling about about 4 o’clock. With some wonderment in her voice, Epling said she and others in the Town Hall were digging through old primary results to find a comparison. She said the closest thing they could find was the ’92 Dem PRESIDENTIAL contest when Jerry Brown upended Bill Clinton and 173K CT residents voted.

Epling reported that as of just after 1 p.m., Mansfield’s three precincts were reporting turnout of 25.5%, 30% and 33%. And, she added, voter turnout had picked up since then.

Asked if turnout would thus crest the 50% mark, she replied, “Oh yes, it will probably get closer to 80%.”

UPDATE: Epling reports that as of 4:30, the three precincts were now reporting turnout of 38%, 45% and 48%. Asked what the final numbers would be for the whole town, Epling stuck to her prediction of around 80%, noting that they had over 200 absentee ballots in hand.

[JONATHAN MARTIN]
GreenSooner on August 8, 2006 at 6:27 pm

We won’t know anything until they count the votes. And even then, we might not know the truth…
- growthrate on August 8, 2006 at 8:16 pm
  
  Has Joe’s victory party started yet, or are they still Blackwelling the voting machines?

Record Turnout in Connecticut Expected

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