Polls are polls and elections are elections. In America, neither are all that accurate, and in both cases they are are only snapshots in time. We have a snapshot in time to look at today. I’ll remind you that the Democrats need a gain of 15 seats to take control of the House of Representatives. We are almost assured of winning Tom Delay’s seat (TX-22), Mark Foley’s seat (FL-16), and Bob Ney’s seat (OH-18). We are also heavily favored to win Jim Kolbe’s seat (AZ-08). What we are looking for are 11 more seats. Zogby’s latest telephone poll is quite encouraging.
Bob Beauprez (CO-07) is abandoning his seat to run for Governor. The Democrat, Ed Perlmutter, is leading his opponent 45%-34%. Joe Courtney is leading Rob Simmons (CT-02) 44%-41%. Christopher Shays (CT-04) is trailing Diane Farrell (46%-41%). Peter Roskam is trailing Iraq War Veteran Tammy Duckworth 43%-38% in the race to take over Henry Hyde’s (IL-06) seat. Chris Chocola (IN-02) trails Joe Donnelly 48.5%-39%. Mike Sodrel (IN-09) trails Baron Hill 46%-38%. In New Mexico, Heather Wilson (NM-01) is floundering badly. She trails Patricia Madrid 50%-40%. In the Smoky Mountains of North Carolina, former NFL quarterback Heath Schuler leads eight-term incumbent Charles Taylor (NC-11) by a stunning 51%-40%. Phil Kellum leads his first-term opponent, Thelma Drake (VA-02), by 46%-42%. In the Philly suburbs, Lois Murphy leads Jim Gerlach (PA-06) 43%-41%.
The Democrats are leading in places where they do not traditionally do well. We are looking at picking up seats in Sugarland, Texas and Virginia Beach and the Smoky Mountains, in Indiana, in Henry Hyde’s district, in rural Ohio, in the pederast’s district that he carried last election by 36%…
If we just win the seats identified above we will have a net gain of thirteen seats.
I think we will win many more seats than these. We have a great chance to win three more seats (07,08,10) in Pennsylvania alone.
What’s going on in your congressional district?
I’m watching ID-01 closely. I grew up there and my Mom still lives there. She’s a lifelong Republican but she’s voting for the Democrat this time.
The Republican candidate is a real nutjob, funded by Club for Growth.
The Democratic candidate is Larry Grant, a solid candidate with a great local bio. He has an excellent chance at taking this seat if people are paying attention, but will probably be heavily outfunded. Donate via ActBlue here.
If we can take Idaho, just think of what the talking heads would say!
I hear WY-AL is a possibility too.
Unfortunately, I live in one of the very few gaps in the 50-state strategy. Chip Pickering-R(MS) is running UNOPPOSED by DEMS for re-election to his house seat. I haven’t seen or heard of any third party or independent candidates running against him. If I discover an option on the ballot that I am now unaware of, I’ll choose that candidate, but it is hopeless, I’m afraid, to expect any change in this district.
This pisses me off, to say the least. I’m a lifelong left-leaning independent, but I almost always end up voting for Dems here in the back country. I wish I had an option. The gerrymandered districts in Mississippi make it almost impossible to elect a Dem from my district. I live on the edge of it, in an integrated middle class neighborhood, but the majority of the district is filled with lily white neighborhoods and some minority working class folks, who live in their own neighborhoods, of course.
And besides all that, there is the almost certain voting machine tampering that goes on in my precinct. ES&S and a mean white lady with legions of R pollworkers make sure the votes come out right…we’re one of the few precincts that isn’t getting diebolded, because the election fixing has gone so well without them for the past six years.
Sound cynical? Yup, but I still vote, so they’ll at least have to steal it and commit the crime.
The new Speaker of the House is the Honorable Lady, Nancy Pelosi.
Stick a fork in Hastert. He’s done, done, DONE.
A minute longer in the oven and he’ll be burnt to a crisp.
In addition to Perlmutter leading O’Donnell in CO-7 by 45-34%, the homophobic Marylin Musgrave is tied w/ her opponent 42-42%…she has been very quiet re: the Foley Affaire there is much hope in N.Cent Co for a change in this seat…also, it appears that Ritter [centrist, pro-life D and a “Party anointed candidate”] maintains a lead over “BushBot” Beauprez in the lead up to the election, and the Foley issue has found it’s way into the campaign and onto the front pages of the local papers…which are starting to indorse Ritter.
I have no information on the Tancredo v Winter…but Tancredo is taking a lot of fire.
Also, this from Floyd Ciruli, a long time Denver pollster with a very good record:
There’s a very good chance Co will turn blue this year.
I’m waiting for someone to give some election-year love to Dan Stover, who’s running against that vile pedophile-enabler John Shimkus.
I’m not so sure about the numbers in NM-1 (neither is MyDD, neither is kos). I’m thrilled to see Madrid over the loathsome Heather Wilson, and according to local polling they’re either tied or Madrid has pulled ahead by a point or two.
But up by ten? Well, who knows. If you’d told me last week that Denny Hastert would be hounded from the speakership in disgrace, I’d have asked for some of whatever it is you’re smoking.
Live in CT 02 where Simmons is outspending Courtney but Courtney is leading in the polls. Simmons is claiming as Lieberman is that he saved the Groton Sub base. Economy here is now more dependent on Indian Casinos than defense. It will continue to be a tight race, I think.