Karl Rove:

Although Mr. Rove had previously predicted a loss of eight to 10 House seats, he said he remains confident that Republicans will not lose more than 15 — the magic number that would flip control of the chamber to Democrats.

Democrats have to pick up six seats to gain control of the Senate — virtually impossible, Mr. Rove said.

There are 40 Republican senators who are not up for re-election this year, he pointed out, and at least seven who are running comfortably ahead. With just a few wins by incumbents — such as Arizona Sen. Jon Kyl, Missouri Sen. Jim Talent and Virginia Sen. George Allen — Republicans would have 50 seats. With Mr. Cheney’s tiebreaking vote, that would assure Republicans’ continued control of the Senate.

Although Mr. Talent is locked in a tight race, Mr. Rove said the Missouri Republican “is one of the best candidates … keen and smart and able … a very disciplined candidate.”

Although Missouri is “very competitive,” Mr. Rove said, “There gets to be a point at which, though, it begins to lock in, and Talent appears to be moving that direction. … I look at the Missouri data, and I can just smell that this race is edging toward a point where … they’re just getting ready to lock in.”

The White House strategist is closely monitoring races across the country. He receives “68 polls a week for Senate, governor and House races,” Mr. Rove said. “My head is about ready to explode.”

Mr. Rove said history is on the Republican Party’s side, noting that 97.5 percent of incumbents have been re-elected since 1996. This time, he said, there are “significantly” fewer open House seats than the Democrats had in 1994, when Republicans swept to power under then-Rep. Newt Gingrich’s leadership.

Early in this campaign cycle, Mr. Rove said the White House compiled a list of 80 Republican incumbents who might face difficulty. From there, top strategists made sure “that they all had a campaign plan, that they all knew that they had a risk, that they all went out there and raised a bundle of money, and that they had a plan that was measurable.”

“As a result, that’s done a lot to get people prepared,” he said.

And, in some ways, the campaign is just beginning, Mr. Rove added.

“For most Americans, particularly the marginal voters who are going to determine the outcome of the election, it started a couple weeks ago,” he said. “Between now and the election, we will spend $100 million in target House and Senate races in the next 21 days.”

Bravado?

Visit the ActBlue page and contribute to Claire McCaskill. I don’t want that race getting “locked in” for Jim Talent.