What if we fall just short of taking the Senate? What will our chances be in two years, a Presidential election year, of winning the one or two or three seats we need to take the Senate?

As you hopefully know, every two years a third of the Senate face elections. We are all familiar with the third that is up this year. But looking forward to 2008 can tell us a lot about what the Senate will do during the next two years and how our Democratic Presidential nominee might influence control of the upper chamber.

The first and most important consideration is to look at how many incumbents each party will have to defend. There will be 33 seats up for election. Of those 33, twenty-one are Republicans and 12 are Democrats. That’s great for us. We only have to protect twelve seats. But….

Look at the states those senators come from: Montana, Delaware, Illinois, Iowa, South Dakota, Massachusetts, Louisiana, New Jersey, Michigan, Arkansas, Rhode Island, and West Virginia. The Republicans will target Landrieu in Louisiana, Pryor in Arkansas, Baucus in Montana, Harkin in Iowa, and Johnson in South Dakota. I doubt Frank Lautenberg will seek re-election because of his age. So, New Jersey will probably be an open seat. How would a Hillary run for President effect these races? How about Feingold?

Despite the fact that the Republicans have to defend 21 seats, very few of them look like potential pick-ups. Below the fold I will look at each race.

Alexander, Lamar- (R – TN)- Alexander is in his first term in the Senate and he is vulnerable to a good challenge. If Harold Ford falls short this time he might do better in this race. Tennessee will probably continue to be a tough place for Democrats to succeed.

Allard, Wayne- (R – CO) – Allard is in his first term in the Senate and he only narrowly won the seat. Colorado is moving left and will elect a Democratic governor in two weeks. This is one of our prime pick-up opportunities.

Baucus, Max- (D – MT)- Baucus is a powerful and popular senator and he is probably safe. He will continue to vote as a moderate to maintain his position. He could be vulnerable if a perceived liberal is the Democratic nominee.

Biden, Joseph R., Jr.- (D – DE) – Biden is a Delaware institution. Barring health problems he will be re-elected. He is also probably invulnerable to any primary challenge.

Chambliss, Saxby- (R – GA)- Chambliss is serving his first-term in the senate. Georgia is a tough state and it will be hard to take this seat if a perceived liberal is at the head of the Dem ticket. I suspect Max Cleland could give him a run for his money.

Cochran, Thad- (R – MS) – Here’s a challenge to Howard Dean’s 50 state campaign. Find us a candidate that can compete here. Or should the netroots do it for you?

Coleman, Norm- (R – MN)- Norm Coleman is serving his first term in the Senate. This is our best pick-up opportunity. We need to find a progressive in the Democratic primaries. We need a new Wellstone to serve in this seat.

Collins, Susan M.- (R – ME)- Collins is the Chairwoman of the Homeland Security committee. She is popular and moderate. We really need a strong candidate for this race. We can win this but we must get to work early on.

Cornyn, John- (R – TX)- Cornyn is serving his first term in the Senate. He is a total lunatic. We really need a revitalized Democratic Party in Texas. This seat is potentially winnable, mostly because of the weakness of Cornyn as a candidate. But winning in Texas in an Presidential election year will not be easy.

Craig, Larry E.- (R – ID)- Recent rumors about Craig’s sexuality could sour him on political life. It’s probably a safe seat for him but recent trends in Idaho show some hope for Democrats there.

Dole, Elizabeth- (R – NC)- Dole is head of the NSCC and had done a terrible job. She’s nearly invisible as a senator. North Carolina is turning purplish. This is a potential pick-up but will require a good candidate and could be tough in a Presidential election year.

Domenici, Pete V.- (R – NM)- about as safe a seat as there is.

Durbin, Richard- (D – IL)- Durbin is safe.

Enzi, Michael B.- (R – WY)- Enzi is the chairman of the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions committee. Wyoming is a solidly red state. This seat will be Enzi’s to lose.

Graham, Lindsey- (R – SC)- South Carolina hasn’t voted out an incumbent since…well…ever.

Hagel, Chuck- (R – NE)- Hagel will probably run for President. How this effects the race remains to be seen.

Harkin, Tom- (D – IA)- It’s hard to picture the Senate with Harkin in it. But, Iowa is a swing state. The Republicans will go after this seat.

Inhofe, James M.- (R – OK)- This is another challenge for the 50 state project. Inhofe is insane. Maybe Brad Carson will give it another go. It would be beautiful if we could somehow win this seat.

Johnson, Tim- (D – SD)- this seat will be a prime target for the Republicans.

Kerry, John F.- (D – MA)- Kerry will probably run for President again. I don’t know if he plans on standing for re-election to the Senate at the same time. Marty Meehan hopes he won’t. Should be safe either way.

Landrieu, Mary L.- (D – LA)- half her voters live in Houston now. Probably our must vulnerable incumbent.

Lautenberg, Frank R.- (D – NJ) – will be 86 years old in 2008. Probably will not seek re-election. We need a strong candidate that is not tarnished by scandal. We can reach out to a millionaire like Corzine that is not part of the N.J. Dem machine, or we can identify a netroots candidate and get behind them early.

Levin, Carl- (D – MI)- Levin is safe.

McConnell, Mitch- (R – KY)- With Frist and Santorum gone, McConnell stands to become either majority or minority leader. That is not assured, but if he does get the position it will make him less vulnerable. This seat is probably safe.

Pryor, Mark L.- (D – AR)- Pryor will be a prime target of the Republicans. How would a Hillary run influence this race?

Reed, Jack- (D – RI)- This seat is safe.

Roberts, Pat- (R – KS)- We need someone to run. Roberts isn’t exactly charismatic. Tough state to win in, but not impossible.

Rockefeller, John D., IV- (D – WV)- West Virginia doesn’t vote out incumbents…like…ever. Still, this is a purple state.

Sessions, Jeff- (R – AL)- We need a revitalized Democratic Party in Alabama. I can’t see Sessions losing this race even though he is insane.

Smith, Gordon H.- (R – OR)- This is one of our best pick-up opportunities. Smith is invisible and ineffectual and this is a solidly blue state.

Stevens, Ted- (R – AK)- Stevens is the chair of the Appropriations committee. He’s old and out of touch. If elected he would be 91 by the end of his term. This is a Republican seat that could go Democratic if Stevens doesn’t run again.

Sununu, John E.- (R – NH)- New England is turning solidly blue. This will be a close race no matter who runs against him.

Warner, John- (R – VA)- Rumor is that John Warner will retire. If he does, we may be able to put Mark Warner in his place.

The overall trend is a lot tougher for Democrats than it appears on the surface. As things stand today, the Senate races look unfavorable to a liberal message because so many of the seats are in solidly red states. The most important thing for progressives is to find a message and legislative program that can appeal in the south and places like Wyoming and Idaho. Clinton’s DLC was supposed to make Democrats more competetive in the south, but has had the exact opposite effect. Instead of being corporate friendly, the Dems need a populist approach to win in the south. It is an ironic twist that the DLC has killed the Dems in the south while making them more attractive in the northern suburbs. We’ll never win a culture war in the south, but we can win a populist war by pushing for better wages, better health care, and better reconstruction of the Gulf Coast.

If you have any suggestions for how we can win Senate seats in 2008, or on candidates you’d like to see run, put ’em in the comments.