Based on the latest polls available at Pollster.com the Republicans are in for a severe beating in the House of Representatives. Very severe. So, I thought I would do all the lobbyists a big favor and give them an easy and ready resource to know on which committees they will need to find new friends. For starters, we already know that Dennis Hastert will be neither Speaker nor Minority Leader, if he even gets re-elected. The GOP also looks like they are going to lose their Conference Chair in Deborah Pryce (R-OH-15th) and their NRCC Chair in Thomas Reynolds (R-NY-26th).
For the purposes of the following I am making these assumptions: Any Democrat that is currently ahead in the polls will win. And Democrat that is rated as a toss-up in a race against an incumbent that is polling under 50% will win. Any Democrat that is running for an open seat and is within the margin of error will win.
Those assumptions are overly optimistic, I know. But most of these candidates, nearly all I believe, are going to lose.
One thing you will notice is that the Financial Services and Transportation committees will be almost entirely wiped out. This will require you lobbyists to make many new friends. A lot of them will have strange southern accents. Do not be concerned by this. They will learn about banks and trains in due time, and with your assistance.
For non-lobbyists, if you suddenly discover that it is much easier to breathe, look no further than the departing members of the Resources Committee.
All departing members are listed in order of seniority. In some cases the members are not running for re-election but the seat is still likely to be lost.
Don’t blame me if there are additional old friends that lose their seats that I did not list. This is largely your fault, not mine. Thank you and enjoy.
Agriculture (6)– Rep. Richard Pombo CA-11, Rep. Tom Osborne NE-03, Rep. Marilyn Musgrave CO-04, Rep. Randy Kuhl NY-29, Rep. Jean Schmidt OH-02,
Rep. Mike Sodrel IN-09
Appropriations (6)– Rep. Jim Kolbe (REP-AZ-8th), Rep. James Walsh (REP-NY-25th), Rep. Charles Taylor (REP-NC-11th), Rep. Anne Northup (REP-KY-3rd), Rep. John Sweeney (REP-NY-20th), Rep. Don Sherwood (REP-PA-10th)
Armed Services (4)– Rep. Curt Weldon (REP-PA-7th), Rep. John Hostettler (REP-IN-8th), Rep. Jim Ryun (REP-KS-2nd), Rep. Geoff Davis (REP-KY-4th)
Budget (3)– Chairman Jim Nussle (REP-IA-1st), Rep. Jim Ryun (REP-KS-2nd), Rep. Chris Chocola (REP-IN-2nd)
Education (3)– Rep. Tom Osborne (REP-NE-3rd), Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (REP-CO-4th), Rep. Randy Kuhl (REP-NY-29th)
Energy and Commerce (4)– Rep. Barbara Cubin (REP-WY-At-Large), Rep. Heather Wilson (REP-NM-1st), Rep. Charles Bass (REP-NH-2nd), Rep. C.L. Otter (REP-ID-1st)
Ethics (0)– none
Financial Services (11)– Rep. Jim Leach (REP-IA-2nd), Rep. Deborah Pryce (REP-OH-15th), Rep. Bob Ney (REP-OH-18th), Rep. Sue Kelly (REP-NY-19th), Rep. Jim Ryun (REP-KS-2nd), Rep. Christopher Shays (REP-CT-4th), Rep. Tom Feeney (REP-FL-24th), Rep. Katherine Harris (REP-FL-13th), Rep. Jim Gerlach (REP-PA-6th), Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (REP-PA-8th), Rep. Geoff Davis (REP-KY-4th)
Government Reform (2)– Rep. Christopher Shays (REP-CT-4th), Rep. Gil Gutknecht (REP-MN-1st), Rep. Jean Schmidt (REP-OH-2nd)
Homeland Security (5)– Rep. Curt Weldon (REP-PA-7th),
Rep. Christopher Shays (REP-CT-4th), Rep. Robert Simmons (REP-CT-2nd), Rep. Katherine Harris (REP-FL-13th), Rep. Dave Reichert (REP-WA-8th)
House Administration (2)– Rep. Bob Ney (REP-OH-18th), Rep. Thomas Reynolds (REP-NY-26th)
Int. Relations (5)– Chairman Henry J. Hyde (REP-IL-6th), Rep. Jim Leach (REP-IA-2nd), Rep. Steve Chabot (REP-OH-1st), Rep. Mark Green (REP-WI-8th), Rep. Katherine Harris (REP-FL-13th)
Intelligence (1)– Heather Wilson (EP-NM-1st)
Judiciary (5)– Rep. Henry Hyde (REP-IL-6th), Rep. Steve Chabot (REP-OH-1st), Rep. John Hostettler (REP-IN-8th), Rep. Mark Green (REP-WI-8th), Rep. Tom Feeney (REP-FL-24th)
Resources (4)– Chairman Richard Pombo (REP-CA-11th), Rep. Barbara Cubin (REP-WY-At-Large), Rep. J.D. Hayworth (REP-AZ-5th), Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (REP-CO-4th)
Rules (0)– none
Science (6)– Chairman Sherwood L. Boehlert (REP-NY-24th), Rep. Curt Weldon (REP-PA-7th), Rep. Gil Gutknecht (REP-MN-1st), Rep. Tom Feeney (REP-FL-24th), Rep. Dave Reichert (REP-WA-8th), Rep. Mike Sodrel (REP-IN-9th)
Small Business (5)– Rep. Sue Kelly (REP-NY-19th), Rep. Steve Chabot (REP-OH-1st), Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (REP-CO-4th), Rep. Mike Sodrel (REP-IN-9th), Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (REP-PA-8th)
Transportation (12)– Rep. Sherwood Boehlert (REP-NY-24th), Rep. Sue Kelly (REP-NY-19th), Rep. Bob Ney (REP-OH-18th), Rep. Robin Hayes (REP-NC-8th), Rep. Robert Simmons (REP-CT-2nd), Rep. Mark Kennedy (REP-MN-6th), Rep. Jim Gerlach (REP-PA-6th), Rep. Tom Osborne (REP-NE-3rd), Rep. Mike Sodrel (REP-IN-9th), Rep. Dave Reichert (REP-WA-8th), Rep. Randy Kuhl (REP-NY-29th), Rep. Jean Schmidt (REP-OH-2nd)
Veterans’ Affairs (0)– none
Ways and Means (8)– Rep. E. Clay Shaw (REP-FL-22nd), Rep. Nancy Johnson (REP-CT-5th), Rep. Jim Nussle (REP-IA-1st), Rep. J.D. Hayworth (REP-AZ-5th), Rep. Ron Lewis (REP-KY-2nd), Rep. Thomas Reynolds (REP-NY-26th), Rep. Bob Beauprez (REP-CO-7th), Rep. Chris Chocola (REP-IN-2nd)
Ah, pared down to the bone…
A mighty thin broth is all the lobbyists will be able to simmer up from the bare bones left over here.
Yes, indeed, do need to find new friends.
Did I hear some lobbyist firms were beginning to hire Democrats?
Those poor unemployed Republican congress critters may have trouble moving over to K Street???
It’s only going to be 5-6 more days before you can do this for real. I’m not going to speak for anyone else, but personally I’m more interested in campaign news right now than post-election speculation.
what’s wrong? You can’t appreciate the virtue of scaring the crap out of the Republicans? There is a psych-out game going on here, too, Shalimar. People need to realize which side the bread is buttered on and get on the bandwagon, cuz this is gonna be ugly.
I really do sincerely hope you’re right. I’m on the cheating bandwagon with Steven D, I fully expect to see the toss-up races all go to Republicans while a bunch of surprise “safe” seats they didn’t know they should fix go to Democrats. Of course, Rove seems to have polls for every single seat so maybe he has even found the vulnerable seats we don’t know about. Any way, in a clean election I would expect a 50-60 seat gain for Democrats (the tide is that high) but I don’t think we’re going to have one.
I’m with you on that cheat’hem band wagon.
Like the man, said the polls in 2004 were looking good until the vote count started. I expect Tues night will be a nightmare in real waking time.
Go read these teasers from Vanity Fair’s Neo culpa
(H/T:Andrew Sullivan) All those that make up the 37% should read before voting.
too bad the full article will only appear in december. But the cons have fled, the knives are out.
According to Tweety, one third of the country will be voting on new machines (Diebold) and many with new, stringent rules with regard to voter identification. So let’s not get cocky.
Maybe this has to do with the polls that Karl Rove is so happy about, and the headline on today’s LAT..
“We think we can, say GOP optimists….”
We think we can (we KNOW we can) steal yet one more election.
Anyone watch Hacking Democracy on HBO last night? I watched it twice.
I’m voting, and will have chilled champagne on hand to celebrate, but….
The proof of the pudding is in the eating. (Always hated that proverb!)
Do you know if it’ll be on again? If so I am going to TiVo it. I didn’t even think about it earlier in the week when it was a hot topic.
I see it at 9:00 PST on HBO2 tomorrow morning (11/4/06) so that must mean they will be repeating it. Great show. Kudos to the much maligned Bev Harris.
The possibility of seeing all those Indiana seats turning over positively warms my heart. Here’s hoping…
Incredibly smart post. Time for BooMan to move to Washington and make some real money.
I’ve also been watching this website, in addition to the pollster.com website. The House projection is at the bottom of the page.
Ed Fitgerald is providing a helpful summary of various election projections at this link.