I just spent a half-hour on the phone with Chris Bowers discussing House forecasts, potential political re-alignments, post election political strategies, and our battles with cold sweats and paranoia. The late breaking polls are coming in and they are truly startling. We are now up in all three Connecticut seats, four of five Pennsylvania seats, 3 Kentucky seats, four Ohio seats, two Arizona seats, 3 Florida seats, one Idaho seat, two Colorado seats, three Indiana seats, three New York seats, a New Hampshire seat, a seat in Iowa, a seat in New Mexico…
There are many more seats that could easily fall our way, including three of four in California, seats in Kansas, Nebraska, and Wyoming. If we just look at the polls in which we are tied or ahead, plus races where incumbents are significantly below fifty percent in the polls the numbers become staggering. A few days ago I predicted 30-36 seats would fall our way. But I didn’t include a lot of the seats I just mentioned above. If the tide continues this way it could approach fifty seats, or even exceed fifty.
Let me demonstrate this:
These are the seats where we are up in recent polls, or the incumbent is below 50% and the race is close.
Arizona: 5,8 +2
California: 11 +3
Colorado: 4,7 +5
Connecticut: 2,4,5 +8
Florida: 13,16,22 +11
Iowa: 1 +12
Idaho: 1 +13
Illinois: 6 +14
Indiana: 2,8,9 +17
Kentucky: 2,3,4 +20
Minnesota: 1 +21
North Carolina: 11 +22
New Hampshire: 2 +23
New Mexico: 1 +24
New York: 20,24,29 +27
Ohio: 1,2,15,18 +31
Pennsylvania: 4,6,7,8,10 +36
Texas: 22 +37
Wisconsin: 8 +38
Wyoming: AL +39
We have more potential pickups, including in Nebraska, Kansas, Virginia, Michigan, Minnesota, Washington, New York, Arizona, Colorado, and California.
Now, we could see a couple of different results. In one scenario we will pretty much win everything in the northeast and upper midwest, and solidify our position on the left coast. This would just turn the party into a bluer version of itself. In another scenario, we could do well in our base areas but not completely sweep them clean. But we could add seats in the border states, in Florida, and in the plains and mountain states. This would diversify the party, adding strength in our base, but also making inroads in the GOP base.
Chris and I discussed the implications of these two scenarios and which is more desirable. He leans towards the former, while I lean toward the latter. I think it is an interesting debate.
Of course, we could win it all, or do worse across the board than expected. Those scenarios would also have implications.
Right now, GOP insiders are quietly admitting that they will be relieved if they only lose 30 seats. Looking at the numbers, I can see why.
Expect some desperate measure in the last few days. Saddam Hussein will probably be sentenced to death this weekend. Maybe that will help the GOP a little. We will see.
Anything that reminds people of Iraq, is a loser for the GOP. I think the (KS-2nd District) will fall to the Democrats..as the RNCC is pouring money into a district they once considered safe. I think those commercials where Ryun is voting against veteran benefits, while giving tax breaks to big oil doesn’t play well.
W is suppose to be Missoura and Kansas..that is how bad things have gotten for the GOP.
Agree about Iraq, afl — maybe there’ll be something with the remaining axis of evil, or another ersatz terrorist plot-of-mass-destruction will be narrowly thwarted someplace. I’d say the former is more likely.
Hackers, friendly balloteers & Mobs-R-Us! On your mark, get set ..
Darcy Burner has a good shot against Dave Reichert. The GOP is scared and dumping money into Reichert’s race.
So does Peter Goldmark, who’s running against Cathy McMorris in a district long represented by Tom Foley.
There is, I think, one other House race in Washington with a Washington incumbent, and that features ethically-challenged Ethics Committee chairman Doc Hastings. I would hope the voters of southeastern Washington will see what a sleaze Hastings is and vote for Richard Wright, but southeastern Washington is a pretty conservative area. (It’s anchored by the Tri-Cities, which are basically a government town. Most of the workforce has some ties to the Hanford plant there.)
I meant a Republican incumbent, but of course Hastings is “representing” southeastern Washington in that other Washington and . . . oh, never mind.
At least 50 seats.
Let us now pray to whatever friendly dieties we prefer, or execute other types of hidden mojo against the Powers That Be in favor of the Power That Is.
Thanks Wild Wench … for your delightful prayer.
I would like to invoke all the natural spirits that have been offended and misused by the greedy Republican’s abusive thoughts and deeds to be by our side and in our hearts as we approach V Day.
I predict 48. 250-185…and that’s not even counting all the possible upsets we could get.
is a net gain of 40 seats, the margin being 242-193.
But I did not include in my prediction seats like Nebraska-03, where we could win.
or whatever the value of $DEITY is today.
“OK, Great: we sentenced the monster to death. Iraq is still a quagmire that gets worse every single day, and killing a deposed dictator is nothing but a last-minute distraction. They are losing this war and think that cheap stunts will fool the American people.”
.
15 Sep 2001
Commander-In-Chief George W Bush: “If [Osama bin Laden] thinks he can hide and run from the United States and our allies, he will be sorely mistaken.”
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."▼ ▼ ▼ MY DIARY
always a pleasure to see your comments.
nice to see you here again. how’s it going?
.
on Bush and the Republicans will be a great day for America and the Free World.
Personally all is well, an addition of a grandson in June and I’ve been quite busy on a project working on a company website.
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."▼ ▼ ▼ MY DIARY
congrats on the new addition. I am sure y ou are full of joy about this. I too am going to be a new nana. My son and his wife are expecting. I am very happy for them both.
Again, I agree, good to see you, always…..
Wonderful news! Please pass on that Mrs. Dem and I are very happy for them (you too, nana Brenda). And best wishes to your new family member and parents as well, Oui:)
Congrats! And of course, it’s always good to see you…you’ve been missed.
wow, that great.
Be well.
Hi Oui,
I join others in rejoice at seeing you posting again.
BostonJoe has also made recent appearance, so this is a good week.
I know you occasionally (at least) lurk, ’cause I see you leaving some sporadic recommendations here and there.
Hope you are well!
I’ll be happy with whatever the margin of control is in the House, as I think it’s a foregone conclusion that the R’s are going to lose it, barring any unsavory incidents.
What I really want now, is control of the Senate sans Lieberman and his ilk [HT to CG]…just sayin’.
That’s what we really need . . . a Congress that shakes out 51-47-2 or better. Actually 50-48-2 would probably would because Sanders is going to caucus with the Democrats, but I want that extra seat just to make iron clad sure we don’t have to worry about it.
My prediction though is that we will end up with a Congress split 49-49-2 because that’s what would cause the most chaos, and in my life betting on chaos seems to be a winner. Unfortunately that usually works when it’s my chaos I’m betting on, not anyone else’s.
But anyway that would mean we need six pickups. Not impossible, but also long odds.
Is it happy hour yet? Set me up a bottle of Grandma’s Old Fashioned Homestyle Rhino Stunner. A nice big bottle.
We must:
a) win 7 Senate seats (OH, PA, MT, RI, MO, VA, and TN or AZ). That would give us a 51 seat majority with Bernie Sanders and without Lieberman, who can join the Thugs for all I care.
or
b) Lamont must win.
Unfortunately, while I predict a Lamont victory in my official predictions, I fear the reality will be that we win 6 Senate seats out of the ones above, and Lieberman wins, thus giving him ultimate control.
that I fear too, Lamont losing. Hopefully voters who want to vote Lieberman will have to search the ballot for him.
No organization to help him GOTV.
I’d take a split Senate w/out Lieberman anyday, with a strong majority in the House…that will, in essence, shut BushCo<sup>TM</sup> down.
I really don’t think the ratpubs in CT are going to vote for Joementum…we shall see.
I still find it hard to believe Schlesinger is only polling at right around 10%. There can’t be that many Republicans in Connecticut who are in love with Joe.
well, good luck with all of this. Even if the hapless Dems win, it’s pretty clear they’ll slide right (which will doubtless make Delaware Rep happy as a little lamb, warming his nasty little thuggish Republican heart) and do little or nothing to stand up to Bush for fear of being attacked in ’08. Steny won’t let Pelosi get anywhere near the Speaker’s chair w/out a bloody civil war. An increase in the minimum wage will be killed in the Senate by the Reps, and Bush would veto it anyway if it got past them. That is the ONLY thing that is good for the people that those cowards will even try to do.
Anyway, I still think you’re counting your chicks before the eggs hatch … and you may very well be left w/ little stillborn, half-formed baby chicks. I still remember the breathless certainty on a certain Tuesday two years ago, and the burnt-ashes smell of despair in the air when the actual votes were counted.
“…when the actual votes were counted”
Please
Man, talk about cold sweats and paranoia…I’m not sure I’m gonna make it ’till Tuesday night.
I need some meth and gay hookers. Anybody know where I can get some?
colorado springs.
A 50+ seat pick up could only happen because of the “downside” of gerrymandering when you are in power: In order to gain the strength of the extra seats, you must make more seats vulnerable — should things go really bad.
Pennsylvania, according to my local newspaper, is the second most gerrymandered state in the country. And I beleive that that is why we are seeing such a big potential pick-up here. The PA-07 has been trending blue for ages, and it was shear arrogance on the part of the State Republicans to put Weldon in such electoral jeopardy. The PA-08 and PA-06 are filled with very junior congressmen, and coupled with being “Kerry” country – it was always going to be difficult to hold on for the R’s. While the PA-08 is really compact, the PA-06 has the shape of a pterodactyl and also features a donut hole. (I pity the field director in this district and its poor constiuents who can’t figure out who their congressperson is.) Its a god-awfully gerrymandered district that gives the state at least 2 more R’s than it should have.
PA-10 is an unexpected, but welcome circumstance. I know the DFA-ers who went to work for Chris Carney early on, and I’m so happy that they pursued “the choker” with such zeal.
(I haven’t followed the PA-04, so no comment there, except wahoo.)
When we redistrict PA after massive Democratic victories in 2008 and 2010 (go Brendan Boyle and Tony Payton!), we need to keep all of this in mind.
…didn’t finish my first paragraph:
Should things go really bad, you loose MORE seats than if you hadn’t gerrymandered everything to death.
My husband did the math for me a couple years ago to make me feel better about the whole horrible situation our country is in. “At least when everyone realizes what’s up, the Republicans will REALLY be toast.” Looks like he was precient.