AdNags has a depressing article in the New York Times about how we will all drink kool-aid, like Jim Jones’s followers, if we don’t take the House by a large margin. He’s an asshole. The following 35 races show that the Democrat (not an incumbent in ANY case) is ahead in the polls. We should win almost all of those races. If we don’t, we have to wonder why we didn’t. But beyond that, there are many more seats (listed below the ones that are in the lead) that are within the margin of error, or are otherwise competitive. We should win a few of those too. You can use the following as a checklist when the results start coming in. Print it out and cross-off the names. If you see people in the second and third tier losing, then you know we are having a BIG night. If you see people in the first tier winning…something is wrong.

First Tier

Ariz. 5 — Hayworth (SurveyUSA 10/31 48D-46R)
Ariz. 8 — Kolbe* (Zogby 10/29 53D-41R)

Calif. 11 — Pombo (RT Strategies 10/26 48D-46R)
Conn. 2 — Simmons (Research 2000 10/30 48D-47R)
Conn. 4 — Shays (Zogby 10/29 51D-44R)
Conn. 5 — Johnson (Research 2000 10/29 46D-43R)
Colo. 7 — Beauprez* (SurveyUSA 10/31 53D-38R)
Fla. 13 — Harris* (RT Strategies 10/26 49D-47R)
Fla. 16 — vacant* (RT Strategies 10/13 48D-41R)
Fla. 22 — Shaw (RT Strategies 10/26 50D-48R)

Idaho 1 — Otter* (Greg Smith & Assoc. 11/1 38D-34D)
Ill. 6 — Hyde* (Zogby 10/29 54D-40R)

Ill. 10 — Kirk (RT Strategies 10/26 48D-46R)
Iowa 1 — Nussle* (Selzer & Co. 11/3 56D-35R)
Ind. 2 — Chocola (Research 2000 10/31 50D-47R)
Ind. 8 — Hostettler (RT Strategies 10/26 53D-43R)
Ky. 3 — Northup (Survey USA 11/1 52D-44R)
Ky. 4 — Davis (Zogby 10/29 45D-42R)
N.C. 8 — Hayes (RT Strategies 10/26 48D-44R)
N.C. 11 — Taylor (OnPoint 11/1 52D-43R)
N.M. 1 — Wilson (Poll & Research 11/2 49D-45R)
N.Y. 19 — Kelly (RT Strategies 10/26 49D-47R)

N.Y. 20 — Sweeney (RT Strategies 10/26 53D-42R)
N.Y. 24 — Boehlert* (RT Strategies 10/10 52D-43R)
N.Y. 25 — Walsh (RT Strategies 10/26 53D-44R)

N.Y. 29 — Kuhl (RT Strategies 10/26 53D-42R)
Ohio 1 — Chabot (RT Strategies 10/26 48D-46R)
Ohio 2 — Schmidt (SurveyUSA 10/31 48D-46R)
Ohio 15 — Pryce (RT Strategies 10/10 53D-41R)
Ohio 18 — vacant* (Zogby 10/29 53D-33R)
Pa. 6 — Gerlach (Zogby 10/29 49D-44R)
Pa. 7 — Weldon (Benenson 10/24 50D-43R)
Pa. 8 — Fitzpatrick (Global Strategies 10/30 46D-41R)

Pa. 10 — Sherwood (Lycoming College 10/26 47D-38R)
Texas 22 — vacant* (Zogby 10/25 36D-28R)
Wis. 8 — Green* (RT Research 10/26 51D-45R)

Second Tier

Ariz. 1 — Renzi (RT Strategies 10/26 38D-41R)
Calif. 4 — Doolittle (SurveyUSA 11/2 43D-50R)
Calif. 50 — Bilbray (SurveyUSA 11/3 41D-55R)
Colo. 4 — Musgrave (SurveyUSA 11/2 43D-44R)
Ind. 9 — Sodrel (SurveyUSA 11/2 44D-46R)
Minn. 6 — Kennedy* (SurveyUSA 11/3 42D-49R)

N.H. 2 — Bass (Research 2000 11/2 46D-47R)
N.Y. 26 — Reynolds (SurveyUSA 11/3 46D-50R)
Wash. 8 — Reichert (SurveyUSA 10/30 45D-51R)

Wyo. AL — Cubin (Aspen Media 10/25 40D-44R)

Third Tier

Minn. 1 — Gutknecht (RT Strategies 10/26 47D-50R)
Neb. 1 — Fortenberry (Momentum Analysis 11/2 38D-43R)
Neb. 3 — Osborne* (no polling)
Nev. 2 — Gibbons* (Mason-Dixon 10/30 39D-47R)
Nev. 3 — Porter (Mason-Dixon 10/30 39D-46R)
N.J. 7 — Ferguson (RT Strategies 10/26 43D-46R)

Pa. 4 — Hart (RT Strategies 10/26 47D-51R)
Va. 2 — Drake (Zogby 10/29 43D-51R)

Colo. 5 — Hefley* (SurveyUSA 11/2 42D-51R)
Iowa 2 — Leach (RT Strategies 10/26 48D-50R)
Fla. 8 — Keller (no polling)
Fla. 9 — Bilirakis* (SurveyUSA 11/3 41D-53R)

Ind. 3 — Souder (Research 2000 40D-52R)
Kan. 2 — Ryun (Cooper & Seacrest 10/8 41D-45R)
Ky. 2 — Lewis (Voter Consumer 10/31 36D-51R)* outlier
La. 7 — Boustany (no polling)
Md. 6 — Bartlett (no polling)
Mich. 7 — Schwarz* (no polling)
Mich. 8 — Rogers (no polling)
Minn. 2 — Kline (no polling)

N.H. 1 — Bradley (Research 2000 11/2 40D-48R)
N.J. 5 — Garrett (no polling)
N.Y. 3 — King (RT Strategies 10/26 44D-51R)
N.Y. 13 — Fossella (no polling)

Ohio 12 — Tiberi (RT Strategies 10/26 46D-51R)
Texas 23 — Bonilla (no polling)
Va. 10 — Wolf (RT Strategies 10/10 42D-47R)
Wash. 5 — McMorris (RT Strategies 10/26 46D-51R)
W.Va. 2 — Capito (no polling)