Something bad is going on in Saudi Arabia.
Prince Turki al-Faisal, Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the United States, flew out of Washington yesterday after informing Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and his staff that he would be leaving the post after only 15 months on the job, according to U.S. officials and foreign envoys. There has been no formal announcement from the kingdom.
The abrupt departure is particularly striking because his predecessor, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, spent 22 years on the job. The Saudi ambassador is one of the most influential diplomatic positions in Washington and is arguably the most important overseas post for the oil-rich desert kingdom.
Turki, a long-serving former intelligence chief, told his staff yesterday afternoon that he wanted to spend more time with his family, according to Arab diplomats. Colleagues said they were shocked at the decision.
The exit — without the fanfare, parties and tributes that normally accompany a leading envoy’s departure, much less a public statement — comes as his brother, Prince Saud al-Faisal, the highly influential Saudi foreign minister, is ailing.
I obviously don’t know what this means, but I know it is very significant. It could be that Saud al-Faisal is seriously ill and that Turki al-Faisal is going to take over as foreign minister. It could indicate severe tensions in the U.S./Saudi relationship. It is highly suspicious that Turki would choose such a critical time to go home. Bush is planning on rolling out his new Iraq strategy sometime before Christmas. In my analysis, that means right now is the time to for the Saudis to use all their influence to guide Bush’s decisions.
Perhaps they have determined that Bush’s strategy is fundamentally incompatible with their interests. Perhaps this is their way of showing thier displeasure.
On the other hand, maybe Turki has worn out his welcome here, or our intelligence agencies have discovered something ugly, like Faisal has been working with terrorists (here, or in Iraq).
All I know is that this is an earth-shaking event within the foreign policy establishment.
Does this mean Bush won’t be holding hands with these guys anymore?
Honestly, I think it is either the beginning of the end or the end of the beginning to WWIII.
See my comment in today’s News Bucket!
The new strategy roll-out is delayed until the year 2007.
Bush is said to be “facing conflicting advice on how to shift course.”
Maybe this has something to do with the new info that the “New Way
QuagmireForward” won’t be revealed until January.Perhaps he just wanted more time to play the new Wii.
I’d like to see someone resign from public office and say they did so because they wanted to spend time with someone else’s family.
Of course he’s a Saudi Prince which means he has about a bazillion relatives. He probably has to look around a bit to find someone who isn’t related to him.
Whatever it means, the “spend time with family” is a cover story that barely even tries to disguise the situation.
This is different from the formal breaking of diplomatic relations, in that it says less outwardly, but is more practical: Your diplomat is not stranded in the host country when the shit comes down. (Think of the hapless Japanese ambassador to the US in December 1941. As part of the cover for the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor he was left in Washington to twist in the wind.) The implication to not leaving him stranded is that shit may be coming down soon–friendly times are over, and we are about to find out what unfriendly times are like.
Of course, that is an alarmist interpretation. Is there one that isn’t alarmist? Well, sort-of. Sometimes sudden recalls occur when a country is fundamentally reversing or altering its diplomatic mission. That is about as good as it gets. Could it be that the Saudis are shifting radically from a policy that is friendly to one that is even MORE friendly?
I don’t think so.
Whatever else it means, the Saudis already OPENLY stated that if the US cannot protect Sunni Iraqis, they will intervene to that end. How? I suppose we think it means they will start (openly) arming the Sunni insurgents. Are they already shooting down our pilots in Anbar province? The on-site news suggests (the parachute was shredded, and the pilots body was too badly mutilated to be shown) that that is how that F-16 went down. The Air Force is saying nothing, except that they are investigating. And they used DNA testing to identify the pilot. Had to use? I wonder.
Oh yes, and they have reversed their stance within OPEC: This autumn they had been calling for more production and lower prices–friendly to Bushco specifically and to the US economy in general; now they are calling for cutting back production and raising prices. This is a complete and utter break with their longstanding US-friendly policies–they have done nothing like this since the late 1970s and early 1980s.
Also they have started shedding their holdings in dollars. They hold a lot, so they have a long way to go to get out from under a dollar crash, but they have started.
Recently Cheney was summoned to Saudi Arabia to explain American policy. Clearly his explanations proved inadequate. Talk is over. The Saudis will now be showing their displeasure in other ways.
The timetable has been speeded up. This week should see important developments.
This scene is not so eviable. When your own best pusher refuses your money and kicks you to the curb, it’s a hint that the pary is over.