Xinhua, a Chinese News Service is reporting that Iran is considering a recent offer by the US government to engage in discussions regarding the situation in Iraq:

TEHRAN, March 3 (Xinhua) — Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad-Ali Hosseini said on Saturday that Iran is studying U.S. proposals for talks on Iraq.

“The United States has contacted Iran recently through different channels requesting talks on Iraqi issues, in particular about Iraq’s security,” Hosseini was quoted by the state television as saying.

He added that Tehran is considering the proposals.

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Secretary Ali Larijani said on Wednesday that Tehran would take part in an international conference of Iraqi neighbors so long as it was in the interests of its violence-torn neighbor.

“We are examining the proposal, and we will join the conference if it is expedient since we support solving problems of Iraq by all means,” Larijani was quoted by the state television as saying. According to the official, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki had been contacted by his Iraqi counterpart on the conference, which Washington also intends to attend. […]

Larijani also suggested it would be ok for Iran if the United States attend the conference by saying “one cannot commit suicide because one is afraid of death”, meaning Tehran should not hurt itself just to avoid possible negative results over attendance of America.

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice declared Tuesday that the country would join the mid-March meeting organized by the Iraqi government, saying she supported Iraq’s decision to invite Iran and Syria also.

I’m assuming those channels probably included the Saudi government, who has been holding discussions with a number of parties in advance of the meeting on March 10th in Bagdad to discuss Iraq’s future. As I noted yesterday, Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is scheduled to meet today with Saudi King Abdullah in Riyadh. Other high ranking members of the Saudi government have also been meeting with Iranian senior officials over the last month, and one can assume that potential talks regarding Iraq, the burgeoning Sunni/Shi’ite conflict across the region, and Iran’s nuclear program have all been topics for their discussion.

I’m guessing that this new US initiative toward Iran does not emanate from the Office of the Vice President. Undoubtedly, this is the handiwork of Condoleezza Rice at the State Department, possibly with the support of the new Defense Secretary, Robert Gates. If so, it indicates a split within the administration. However, how much authority has been given to Ms. Rice to come to some arrangement with the Iranians is the $64,000 question. I’m assuming she’s on a short leash, and is limited to a fairly rigid set of proposals to present to Iran’s representatives. Providing security assurances to the current regime in Iran, such as eliminating the US goal of regime change as part of any US-Iran agreement, is probably not one of the concessions she is authorized to discuss. If that’s the case, I don’t see much hope that talks between Iran and the United States will achieve a breakthrough regarding Iraq or Iran’s nuclear program.

That said, I do sincerely believe that Iran is willing to cut a deal with the United States, despite the occasional harsh rhetoric issuing from Ahmadinejad. However, the Iranians have reason to be cautious. The Bush administration doesn’t have a great track record when it comes to honoring the terms of its agreements. The Iranians are no doubt suspicious that their attendance at the March 10th Baghdad conference may be a trap set by the American government to score public relations points off any refusal on Iran’s part to accept the Bush administration’s demands. It would be easy for US negotiators to present proposals that they know going in are unacceptable to the Iranian regime, and that is probably why Iranian attendance at the meeting is still an open question.

It also seems quite likely, however, that Iran is being pressured by the Saudis (perhaps with the threat of “economic warfare” — i.e., the Saudis increasing their oil production to drive down the price of crude) to attend, and to engage with the Americans directly. If they do, we’ll soon know how serious the Bush administration is about this particular diplomatic initiative. If Iran and the US representatives leave the conference mutually denouncing each other, that will be a clear sign that negotiations were never a “real option” that was “on the table.” It will also be a victory for Cheney and the “war party” within the White House.