One of the harbingers of political realignment is party-switching by politicians. I’ve been waiting to see this, because all the other signs are already there. From Bluegrass Report, we now have the an example:
Sources tell WHAS 11 News that they expect two republican state house members to officially switch parties and register as democrats this week.
Sources tell me Rep. Melvin Henley (R) Murray and Rep. Milward Dedman, Jr. (R) Harrodsburg will change their party registrations this week. That would extend the democrats advantage in the state House of Representatives to 63-37.
I’m not a big fan of embracing currently serving Republicans into the Democratic Party, but that’s not the point. The point is that GOP politicians in Kentucky are smelling extinction. The Republican brand is suffering terribly. Take a look at Virginia. Rasmussen reports on a potential run for Senate by Mark Warner:
In a match-up of former Virginia Governors, a Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds Warner leading Jim Gilmore by twenty percentage points, 54% to 34%. Warner also starts the season with a comfortable lead over Virginia Congressman Tom Davis. The Rasmussen Reports poll shows Warner attracting 57% of the vote while Davis earns 30%.
The last time the Democrats carried Virginia in a presidential race was 1964. I think we will carry it in 2008. And I think 2008 is going to be an election much like 1964. Here’s an interesting fact:
The 1964 election was the only time in American history where all of the outer southern states (Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and West Virginia) went for one political party and all of the deep southern states (Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina) went for the other political party.
That’s what is shaping up for both the presidential race and, even more so, the senate races. I really think we can win senate races in the outer southern states. The party switchers in Kentucky and the polls out of Virginia validate what I was already feeling. The GOP is stuck on this war and they are going to pay very, very heavily.
This could be largely mitigated if the Republicans got pro-active RIGHT NOW and moved to force an end to the war and disavow their president. They’re not doing it, and the consequences will be terrifying for conservatives.
I think Andrew Rice could be part of that. I think even a lot of Okies who supported Inhofe in the past are a little embarrassed by him now. And there’s a lot to like about Rice.
Big deal. I’m with Cole: by refusing to end the war now, the dems have walked into a major trap laid by BushCO:
if there’s one thing the GOP is good at, it’s demonizing their opponents. And you can see this one coming from miles away. In fact, I’d go so far as to assume the GOP is making these “dumb moves” on purpose.
In fact, I’d go so far as to assume the GOP is making these “dumb moves” on purpose.
I’m skeptical of that because it requires current GOP leaders to act in a self-sacrificing way. That’s a lot to expect from the generally low caliber of people who are drawn to elected office, and certainly too much to expect from the current crop of inveterate bottom-feeders.
The remaining Republicans, at least at the national level, really have nowhere to run. Democrats are not going to embrace a shithead like John Boehner even if he came out of the closet, publicly converted to agnosticism, and denounced the war. The rabid Republican base, however, would abandon him and rally around someone equally noxious. That’s the deal with the devil that Karl Rove forged for them, and having signed in blood, their accounts are starting to come due.
The real danger facing us, I believe, is that the Democrats will yet find some way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
I saw a bumper sticker the other day “Ross was right”on what would otherwise be a traditionally republican decorated pickup.
It got me wondering once again, whether the GOP is on their way towards getting themselves replaced? Have the bushies and neocons damaged the party so badly that their base would consider another party if given a chance?
Let’s face it, christian fundamentalists, big business, farmers and fiscal conservatives make for very strange bedfellows. And none of them are happy with the current state of things other than the military vendors.
I used to vote for an occasional republican, if they seemed to be fairly competent compared to their rivals. Usually it was local elections. I swore off EVER voting for a republican again with the way they acted under GWB. In the Independent crowd, I don’t think I’m alone, and I think they are starting to realize that.
Does anyone else see the rise of a new conservative party (or two) if the GOP loses big time in 08?
Christopher Shays is currently the only Republican in the House from New England, and he will lose badly in ’08. Sen. Sununu is going to lose. Sen. Collins is in a toss-up election.
If they both lose and Shays loses, the only Republicans in Congress New England will be Olympia Snowe and Judd Gregg.
Now, that’s close to extinction. And there’s a possibility that after the ’08 elections we’ll see new Dem senators from Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas, Tennessee, Kentucky, Virginia, North Carolina…and even Idaho and Alaska are not out of the question. Add in Oregon, Minnesota, and the New England seats…
If that happens, the GOP will be virtually extinct outside the deep south and parts of the far midwest and mountain states.
If that happens, the GOP will be virtually extinct outside the deep south and parts of the far midwest and mountain states.
That won’t last long. In fact, I’d wager it will turn around at the mid-term election of the next president’s term (unless, by some miracle/unholy error the Republican becomes president).
The one thing that Republican politicos are good at is demonizing the sitting party. They’re really, really, really good at it. As soon as any Democratic president is in charge with a Democratic Congress, the Republicans will be back on their A-game and we’ll see a resurgence.
GOP extinction?…not likely. They seem to rather resilient.
But this in general: embracing currently serving Republicans into the Democratic Party, but that’s not the point.…IMO, is exactly the point. By welcoming carpet-bagging republicans moving in to an area, AKA: changing parties to take advantage of a situation which they believe will yield them gain of some nature, is counter-productive to progressive/liberal ideals.
Been there, done that: see Salazar [DINO-Co].
You want more Bush Dogs? That’s a great way to achieve it, guaranteeing continued stalemate and inaction regardless of who’s in the WH come 21 jan 2009.
Find a progressive/liberal candidate to challenge the seat, especially in this political climate. Don’t encourage more of the same centrist, DLC BS.
my 2¢
lTMF’sA
correction: see Ben Night Horse-Cambell….although Salazar is a contender, though nominally a d.
lTMF’sA
Well, I’ve looked into it and Bob Kerrey is almost definitely going to run for Senate and no one will run against him in the primary. Word is that he is house shopping as we speak. What’s more, their is little enthusiasm in the blogosphere to do anything about this in advance. Bob Kerrey is pro-choice and reasonable on many issues, but he’s the wrong guy at the wrong time for our party. He’ll run for Senate by bad-mouthing his liberal friends from NYC. It’s very frustrating. But, on the other hand, if is only one of 60 plus Democrats, I can live with it.
The wider question is whether the expansion of Democrats’ ideological spectrum (both left and right) will be responded to by a resurgence of progressivism in Republican politics. If history is a guide, it should happen.
erm how’d Bob Kerrey get in here?
Kerry = Nebraska…hardly the south.
Not that l’m overly enthusiastic about his candidacy either.
lTMF’sA
you brought up a neighboring state. I was just playing along.
A bit like cockroaches, aren’t they?