I’ve been looking very closely at all 435 House races for 2008. Who is retiring? Where are there primaries? Where are there ethical scandals? What’s recruitment like? The scene is looking more and more like a GOP disaster in the making. But it looks like the disaster is still confined to the north.
Illinois has 19 House seats (10 Dems, 9 GOP). Yet, it looks increasingly likely that the Dems will take over three Illinois seats (IL-11, IL-14, IL-18). All three seats are open and the Dems have outrecruited the Republicans in every case.
Ohio has 18 House seats (10 GOP, 7 Dem, 1 vacant that is solid GOP). The Dems are competing in five: OH-01, OH-02, OH-14, OH-15, OH-16. I predict the Dems will win the open seat races in the 15th and 16th Districts (Regula has not offically retired yet, but will), and will also steal away OH-01. That will reverse the partisan advantage.
Michigan has 15 House seats (9 GOP, 6 Dem). It should be an 8-7 advantage for the Dems after they get done winning MI-07 and MI-09.
Minnesota has 9 House seats (6 Dem, 3 GOP). The Dems are poised to win MN-03 and I predict an upset victory in MN-06. That will leave John Kline (MN-02) as the only remaining Republican.
This comes after the Republicans took a beating in Indiana in 2006. The Midwest is essentially cleansing itself of conservatives. This is a process that is nearly complete in New England (where Chris Shays CT-04 is the only remaining Republican in the House, and will lose in ’08) and well underway in the Mid-Atlantic and Upstate New York. Republicans are in danger of losing two seats in New Jersey (NJ-03, NJ-07), another three seats in Pennsylvania (PA-03, PA-06, PA-18). In New York, the Republicans only hold 6 out of 29 seats, and only one of them should be considered truly safe (Vito Foselli’s (NY-13) Staten Island seat).
These are the areas where the Republicans stand to be decimated. But there are a few other places where they will probably lose seats. AZ-01, AZ-03, CO-04, and NM-01 are at risk. I also see Dems picking up MO-06, CA-04, NC-08, NV-03, WA-08, WV-02, and possibly AK-AL.
This list is in no way exhaustive. There are more possibilities in Florida, California, and elsewhere. But the main theme is definitely a realignment. It would not be a shock to see the Dems pick up another 25-30 seats, with at least half those seats from formerly red states (mostly through retirement and scandal), and the rest concentrated in the Upper Midwest and Mid-Atlantic (Ohio, falling into both categories).
Imagine a future where the Dems have a 50-1 edge in House seats from New York and New England. Because that is where we are headed.
yeah, and we’ll still be in iraq and the media will still hate progressives and we won’t have health care.
America loves an underdog but they hate losers. The basis for the media’s contempt for progressives is based on forty years of losing. The business world is already realigning into the Democratic camp.
America loves an underdog but they hate losers.
DING! This is the primary reason that the media dumps on Democrats – the narrative of loserdom. Republicans are scrappy fighters, always ready to make comeback. While Democrats are sad sack losers who often don’t even try to fight back. That’s the narrative, and it’s stuck to the Dems like glue since at least Carter (maybe earlier – I was too young before Carter to notice it).
Republicans can get away with losing time and time again because they act like winners even when they lose. Democrats act like losers even when they win. The media narrative reinforces these viewpoints, but the Dems don’t do themselves any favors when they govern like losers (as they have since winning the majority in Congress).
This just means we’re adopting their antiunion, antihealthcare prowar agenda. Whoopie, we’re winners, but progressives are still losers.
Hey Boo– Whats your favorite NYC restaurant? I’ll tell ya what. If there is a landslide- no, wait a minute- I’ll go further. If the dems can simply save their majority in both houses-just save- get it- JUST SAVE- My TREAT. I would luv to join you but I won’t if you feel better-
NOT A CHANCE. A classic fold.
waddya say?
I’m a cheap date. Take me to Katz’s and get me a pastrami sandwich.
Bill, you have to start looking at the numbers. From Ohio alone:
The GOP is freaking doomed.
“The GOP is freaking doomed.”
so what? The democrats have already shown their hand: they’re not gonna do shit.
and as for Katz’s the pastrami is great, but the hard salamis is heavenly. I could eat both until I had a heart attack, especially washed down with a cel-ray and a few half sours.
“Dude, you can’t take this negativity into the tournament.”
1- you are on! A Katz’s feast on me.
2- I know it appears to be negativity but Real Angry Folks never follow the script! Never.
I go to bed every night praying that the dems don’t rip defeat from the jaws of success. I really do and I am definitely not religious.
Your numbers are totally accurate but these bastards(goopers) combined by the apparent lack of democratic unwillingness to publically challenge the goopers leads me believe that my position has validity.
it’s not negativity. it’s called “clear eyed realism”.
We’ve seen, repeatedly, the way the Democrats plan to govern. We’ve seen this every day since the election in 2006.
First they very publicly broke their promises to their base, giving us the Donna Hanover treatment essentially.
Then, they duck and cover at every single fight. They always back down: increase taxes to pay for the war? Horrors! You even pointed it out yourself in “Pissing It All Away”. Other times they deliberately sell us out, like DiFi and Rockefeller helping the wiretapping telecoms get immunity from prosecution.
I know how they’re going to govern. It has nothing to do with negativity. The fact is it doesn’t matter who wins the tournament: if the GOP wins, America loses. If the Democrats win, America loses.
“We’re in a massive decline as a nation. We have no self-confidence, we have no cohesion, and we definitely have no leadership.”
That’s not going to change if the Democrat Party wins.
You act like you are shocked, shocked to learn that progressives are the red-headed step children of the American Empire. Buck up.
I will admit that I WAS shocked at the sheer speed of the broken promises. But then when it became promise after promise laying in shards on the kitchen floor, I got angry.
In your comment you tacitly admit that my predictions and realism are correct: that I shouldn’t be shocked to learn that the democrats really don’t give shit number one about progressives and our goals.
Well then if, as you say, progressives are “the red-headed step children”, then why on earth should we “buck up” and continue to support people who treat us as such?
why should I give one red cent to a party that won’t support my issues? why should I give that party any effort at all to help them win? For that matter, why should I be excited when they win, if they’re going to ignore progressive issues and treat progressives like red headed step children?
I might as well throw my money down the well.
Because we are on the rise…because we have become organized…because the times they are a-changing.
You need to look at history. What did JFK and LBJ run on versus, what did they accomplish once the Dems achieved supermajority status?
Did a bunch of punk-ass Blue Dog Democrats object? Sure they did, and they got to switch parties.
Even Hillary would probably drop all the national health insurance bullshit if it became clear she could ram home a plan better than the 1993-4 version.
But forget hoping Hillary will govern as a progressive if she has supermajorities…this is a long term thing. The point is to infuse populism into politics again.
Your wrong. She doesn’t give us real national health insurance because she is ideologically opposed to it. She doesn’t really get us out of Iraq because she actually supports the war.
The (American People Are) freaking doomed.
Fixed that for ya.
I’ve yet to see a difference between R’s fucking people from ideological conviction and D’s fucking people from expediency and cowardice.
“When two elephants fight, the grass is destroyed regardless.”
We’ll still be in Iraq. No health care. if it’s Hillary in the white house, it’s goodbye 50-state strategy, hello dlc and business as usual.
they days of rejoicing in the potential of a democratic majority are, for me at least, over. What has the Democrat Party done for me lately, other than taken my money and time, refused to keep its promises, and taken official action against Americans speaking out about the war?
Yeah, oh boy the Democrats will have a majority. Whoooop. De. Fucking. Do.
Amen to that one Brendan.
The question is not how many seats will be picked up by Democrats, but how many seats will be picked up by anti-war, anti-empire, pro-labor, pro-health care individuals who will take their oath of office seriously?
Absolutely demolover..what kind of dems are going to get elected? Progressives or DLC types, if it’s DLC types then we lose anyway.
Hey Brendan- I get the feeling that you are tending to believe that the dems could blow it?
“Hey Brendan- I get the feeling that you are tending to believe that the dems could blow it?”
not at all. I am pretty sure they’ll win and win big in 2008. I’m saying the “victory” will be for the party alone, and not the American people.
And I say this by looking at the Democrats’ record since election.
Impeachment’s off the table: that was nearly the first thing pelosi did.
They just voted for MORE money for the war, after giving the President a blank check a few months ago.
They sent more troops to Iraq for “the surge”.
Several are trying to obtain immunity from prosecution for the telecoms that illegally wiretapped our phones.
Subpoenas remain unenforced.
The Congress took official action against a citizen’s advocacy group, an OFFICIAL attack on political speech.
Anyone else notice how universal health care has morphed into universal health insurance?
So yeah, they’ll win. But it won’t mean jack fucking shit in any positive sense.
thx for the analysis, but count me in with skippy and brendan. There’s a reason for the abysmal poll ratings of Congress and while the fundraising may be good, not one single vote has been cast. If Dems continue to feign outrage at BushCo’s policies without stopping them, I don’t see any motivation to vote even more of them into power.
They are abusing the system in a bipartisan manner and it’s disgusting.
Booman, I’ve got to say I’m pessimistic as well, but with reasons.
My entire GOTV team quit. We brought around 200 marginal voters to the polls in 2004- those voters that the Dems are hoping aren’t paying close attention right now.
So who’s going to bring them to vote Democratic now?
BOO!!!!! Domenici! that dinner should be tasting real good about now!