A far cry from the taunts of a “permanent republican majority” that we were hearing a few short years ago, there has been a major flurry of resignations and announcements of “early retirements” and “not seeking re-election” over the past year or so. And in pretty much every instance, it is from that “permanent republican” side of the aisle.
Do these Congressional republicans know something deeper about the impending implosion of their party? Are some involved in corruption, scandal or other embarrassing stories? Is it more like rats scurrying for the exits or cockroaches scurrying away when light is shed upon them?
Or is it something deeper – something that is more indicative of a longer term problem with the republican party? Obviously, the writing is on the wall with respect to the failed policies and rubber stamping of these failed policies – even the best republican spinmeisters can’t even deflect enough of the blame or divert enough attention. Whether it is the Justice Department politicization, Iraq, SCHIP, the economy, healthcare, the lack of any groundswell by the Presidential candidates, something else, or all of the above, even the republicans can smell something rotten in the state of their party.
Just off the top of my head, there is Kay Bailey Hutchison’s recent announcement to go along with Senators Hagel, Allard, Domenici and Warner (at least one, if not more of those seats is looking REAL good for the Democrats), just to note a few. And that doesn’t count the seats that the Democrats stand to gain via next year’s elections.
In the House, there is even more of an exodus. Hastert, Deborah Pryce and three others announced their retirement as of a few months ago. But since then, there have been a number of others who are not going to seek reelection. Even Chris Shays was “threatening” to retire.
Of course, there is also the Vitter/Craig (not to mention Foley from last year) cloud that hangs over the party when it comes to the rabid, foaming at the mouth fundie base that would likely be even more turned off and tuned out with Rudy or Mitt headlining the republican ticket. And who knows what else will come out over the next 8-12 months when it comes to corruption scandals, sex scandals (which interestingly have only seemed to hit the republican party after the cries of Clinton tainting the integrity of Washington DC) or just outright malaise and fatigue at the disgrace that the republican party has become.
Right after the 2006 election, Rove (of “THE math” fame) said that less than 100,000 votes on the House side and a few thousand on the Senate side would have kept control with the republican party. Yet, not even his own party seems to believe they have a chance at some control of government in the near future. That, and no doubt, they don’t want to deal with cleaning up the mess they made on Iraq, the economy, the environment and whatever else they did when they controlled all three branches of the Federal Government.
Interestingly as well, the ones who should step down or not seek reelection are the ones who are standing firm. Doolittle comes to mind, as does Larry Craig whose crime (to his party) is more of being a closeted gay while also being republican as opposed to being a creepy peeping tom. And there are more – many more like Heather Wilson, who is in some hot water herself, yet will roll the dice to run for NM-Sen (and leaving her House seat up for grabs).
You never really can know exactly how things will turn out in a year, but enough Congressional republicans are looking at the tea leaves and deciding that they have had enough. While bailing on the mess that they made is certainly a very cowardly thing to do, it at least gives some hope that there will be movement towards cleaning up that mess.
And who knows, maybe events will make it so that there will be a few surprise wins for the Democrats, getting closer to 60 seats in the Senate (not likely though) and another 15-20 in the House.
Even if we don’t see the writing on the wall just yet, it is clear that enough republicans are resigning themselves (pun intended) to the fact that they will be the minority party for the foreseeable future. And as I said above, like rats jumping ship, they are bailing before it all comes crashing down on them.
Some may be leaving office to reduce the risk of prosecution, but I suspect that most of them are looking at poll numbers and just deciding to cut their losses. The Republicans are, first and foremost, the party of business interests, and Republican officials are businessmen (the business in question being the funneling of favors to businesses). If the congressional salaries and bribes are going to dry up, then they are just going to move on to the next oasis, which is probably lobbying for most of them.
Don’t get your hopes up for a wave of prosecutions. It’s just not going to happen save for the most extreme cases. It’s too easy for members of the opposition party to claim that prosecutions are politically motivated, and federal prosecutors are going to have their hands full after 2008 actually enforcing all of the laws and regulations that the current administration has declined to enforce. Nor should we see that as an entirely bad thing: congressional Republicans are not the root of corruption in our society; they are the products and instruments of that corruption. Moreover, going after the behind-the-scenes criminals is much easier politically than hunting down their highly visible public puppets.
I agree on the lack of prosecutions. hell, if there was a deal for Rove and Gonzales to go and have the investigations stop, then it is more likely that this will continue for the others.
It seems to me that the Republican party is splintering and I’m not sure what the final product will look like. With all the emphasis on illegal immigration (of the Mexican variety), it sure looks like they are going to have a lot less support from Hispanics. When the economy starts in a serious downturn, expect the Republican party to attempt to split off more voters from the Democrats and Independents who are concerned about their jobs. This will in turn make the Corporate wing of the party flee. What a conundrum for them.
If the dems take full control of congress, there will be a bloodletting! Gooper deserters will find that the act of fleeing will not stop the investigations. As did the goopers, so to will the dems try and reduce any possibility of them returning to power is the forsseable future. That is part of the great game. There is a difference though this time. If the dems play their card correctly, and, if their majority is strong enough, they can achieve the shattering of the opposition. The examination of what is happening- the resignations and the greatly weakened possibility for retention of so many formally solid gooper seats in both houses, will shatter the party. The flight of the Evangellical right and their possible formation of a third party will enhance this possibility dramatically.
For hose that are of the politically junky ilk, this is the best of times!
Also, if there is one single plus for us unwashed, it is the possibiliyu that Business will discover the simple fact that in the long run, it will benefit their bottom lines to a greater degree if they start to make decisions that truly benefit their markets.
Just some thoughts!
With the Democratic Party being the new party of business (and one of the two old war parties), the Republican Party has lost its reason for existence. If it dies a quiet death, perhaps a new party can emerge, one that is left of center, so that we will have one left of center and one right of center party, as opposed to what we have now, which is one extreme-right party and one moderate-right party.
Par for the course for the spoiled brat party, the head of which, is a spoiled brat par excellence. Make a mess and wait for someone else, either the parent or the maid, to clean it up.
I’m not entirely pleased that if races turn out as well as predicted, there will be lots of cleaning up to get done: Iraq, the deficit, etc. I thought that’s why Bill Clinton was elected–to clean up their mess. He did that but he also set the stage for rethugs to truly screw us w/ respect to Iraq, contracting out (these days, known by one name: Blackwater), etc.
BUT. If the class of ’08 is anything like the post-Nixon class of 1974 reformers, then that is something to get quite excited about, indeed.
The thousand-year reich has been postponed until further notice.
There Has to be something in the background going on. (let me adjust my tinfoil hat)
Perhaps they simply cannot take the tactics of their party any longer. Imagine a pre-92 repub who REALLY believed in small government, and who carried a copy of the bill of rights in his pocket. First indignation was used to convince him to go after Clinton, then they were convince to support Bush, whom they KNEW to be as dumb as a bag of hammers (because they knew him from daddies day in the WH). Then the lies to THEM started. Then Iraq, outings, blah blah blah.
Everyone talks of the WH lies to the public. Imagine the WH lies to republicans in congress! Probably EVERYTHING told to them from Rove/Chaney was a lie. So now, any repub who can think sees what we see. They see the results as well as you and I.
They have been part and parcel to what could be called a severe blow to American standing, with absolutely no gain at all. Now they are being called on to be a party of personal destruction. All the meetings they have must be VERY discouraging to ‘old timers’. Now they know there will be NO ‘staying around to fix it’. Their party will not allow them to help. They are being asked to destroy, to ‘get’ 12 year olds, to help O’Reilly, Limbaugh, Coulter.
No matter what you think, these are NOT stupid people. They see what they have done. And now they can see what they will be asked to do in the coming years. Give them some credit, they are refusing to do it.
nalbar
I’m not sure there were ever “conservatives” who really believed the small government, tax-hate line. Well, at least since Hoover. There may be 3 or 4 Reps with some honor left, but I don’t think that’s the reason for the defections. More likely they foresee being part of a powerless minority, which means the
bribescontributions will stop flowing in their direction. The money and power now looks better on the other side of the revolving door.