I hardly blog at all about the horserace and the primaries because the issue bores me for some reason and I can’t predict what will happen any better than they next guy or gal. Here’s a thread to talk about it. And here’s some fodder for discussion.
I find the Republican race harder to predict than the Democratic one. Here’s my analysis of the Democratic side.
If Hillary wins Iowa, she wins New Hampshire, and she coasts to the nomination.
If Obama wins Iowa, he’ll have a great shot at winning New Hampshire. Either way, if Obama wins Iowa his campaign will survive past New Hampshire and how that will shake out is beyond my ability to predict.
If Edwards doesn’t win Iowa he has to hope Obama does and that he comes in second. Otherwise, he’s done. And if Edwards wins Iowa, he needs to come in at least second in New Hampshire to have a shot.
The problem is that I have no idea who will win in Iowa.
The Republican race just baffles me. Guiliani is not seriously contending in Iowa and is way down in New Hampshire. He plans on winning anyway, even though we’ve never quite seen that happen before. I just can’t imagine any of these clowns actually winning the nomination. Maybe Romney will win it. I have a hard time finding a scenario for anyone else.
What do you think?
what do i think…? what i think is pretty well summed up in a diary posted today on the great orange satan…
also, to re-emphasize, the vial of “poison” that will remain “active in our halls of government” will pass directly into the hands of the next president to be inaugurated on 20 january 2009…
yeah, that’s why I am bored by horserace articles, but how is Huckabee gonna do in South Carolina?
South Carolina is a make or break state for Huckabee, it is also a must win for Obama particularly if his showing in Iowa is ambiguous.
Huckabee is going to either win Iowa or come in with a strong finish and get a lot of media coverage. I don’t think it will be enough for him to win New Hampshire, but it will earn him a free pass. Everyone else has to beat Ron Paul to remain viable.
My guess is that we have a three way race between Romney, Guillianni and Huckabee coming out of New Hampshire. Romney might beat Guillianni in New Hampshire but I doubt it, since his Iowa placing will be spun as a disappointment.
Huckabee and Romney then fight it out for the privilege of fighting Guillianni in South Carolina. The victor in that race eliminates the other. My inclination would be to favor Huckabee because the Carolinas will favor him more that Iowa and Romney will not have had the same head start.
That leaves Huckabee and Guillianni to fight out a long drawn out primary from late January on. I haven’t really thought about how Michigan or Florida play since they aren’t on our lists. Hopefully the two of them will tear each other apart for months and make sure that the Money and Fear wing stop talking to the Social Conservative and Populist wing.
I am not ready to call that fight yet, but I would guess that some money people jump over to Huckabees side and we have to face him.
The noise machine has spoken: 2008 won’t be about Bush or the Iraq War, ergo the Dems are toast.
The real issue isn’t lack of health care or fuel costs or anything like you know, like the economy. Citigroup laying off up to 45,000 people? Losses measured in the hundreds of billions to possibly trillions? It’s all the Washington insiders’ fault, and in 2008 all the Washington insiders are Democrats. SENATOR Clinton! SENATOR Obama! SENATOR Edwards and Dodd and Biden. They caused this mess while they were in Washington. Vote GOP for change!
It’s moronic of course. But you’d better believe that’s exactly the platform the GOP nominee is going to run on, the same “folksy populist outsider” fighting the “beltway baddies” that Bush ran on.
Look for more articles soon on how the rapidly failing economy and the recession is in fact entirely Hillary’s fault. Bonus Andrew McCarthy/Joe Kline/Village Wankery prediction: “The recession of 2008 had its seeds in the Clinton dot-com bust.”
So, does this (Giuliani’s performance in Iowa and New Hampshire) support this idea that, once people have a chance to get to know the man, they don’t like him?
This is pure speculation, but I’m not convinced that Iowa and N.H. will make the final decision. With so many primaries on Feb. 5th, all the main candidates need only have respectable numbers in Iowa and N.H. to be motivated to stay in longer. And then it will get interesting.
I try not to read stories about the horserace because I think a 22 month campaign is absurd, and having primaries 9 months before the general is just as absurd. But I think I’m nearly alone in this.
I also try not to read stories about the horserace because the whole concept of a horserace plays to the worst aspects of our lazy, content-free mass media. Given a choice between analyzing legislation or covering glad-handing at a campaign stop, the media almost always chooses the latter.
I don’t think I’m alone in thinking that you’re not alone with those thoughts.
Who will win on both sides depends on the script that is being used. Has anyone (here) read it yet?
horserace or horse’s ass.
Clinton is facing electability challenges in Iowa and elsewhere
do you suppose these questions are not being raised across the country?
I couldn’t agree more, and also find it hard to guess what’s going to happen.
I knew Romney led in fund raising; I’m more surprised to see him leading the polls in Iowa, NH and SC, this suggests he has the best organization.
I’m guessing Giuliani is running on name recognition, he probably leads among people who haven’t thought about it much. I think it’s funny that he leads in the later primaries – if he does as badly as predicted in the early ones, that support will disappear fast. He’s got the cash on hand and had better start spending it.
I can’t see either of them appealing to the christianists much. Huckabee is their obvious candidate; if so South Carolina is crucial for him. It’s the first of the “jesusland” states to vote, so we’ll see from that where the religious right’s vote goes.
I can’t at all understand the appeal of Fred Thompson. Maybe his fans are men who just want his cute wife for First Lady.
I don’t know about the rest of the country, but on my Thanksgiving road trip out here on the left coast revealed only one candidate that anyone cared enough to put up signs for, the looney libertarian. And there were lots of signs, and they were big signs.
Does that mean that I think Ron Paul can win the republican nomination? Not yet, but I’m giving him a lot better chance than I would have two weeks ago.
I also wouldn’t be surprised if the RRR decides to pull a get-out-the-vote drive for Huckabee.
As for the Dems, I have no idea either. I’d really rather not have Clinton or Obama. I guess I’ll just see who is left in the pack by the time the WA primaries roll around. Maybe I’ll just vote for the looney libertarian in the republican primary just to add to worry the party bosses.
i know the Broadcast media wants the race over by Valentine’s Day,
but, i find it hard to believe that the American people will let 2 primaries, ten months before the election determine the election.
who is ahead in South Carolina? Florida?