If you’ve ever built sandcastles at the beach, you know that when the tide comes in, sometimes there is an initial wave that takes out a part of your complex before the tsunami that destroys it. In political terms, the Republican Party is on the cusp of total destruction, but you can already see areas where the damage is severe. The most obvious area is New England, where Chris Shays is the sole remaining Republican in the House, and he is quite likely to lose his seat next year.
Ohio is another area. Between a tragic death, several retirements, and vulnerable incumbents, the GOP’s House delegation is losing a tremendous amount of seniority and clout. The Republicans lost the Governor’s mansion, one Senate and one House seat last year. They may lose three or more seats next year.
Illinois is looking just as bad. The death of Henry Hyde is merely symbolic, as he had already retired. Dennis Hastert’s abrupt retirement is another matter. Add in Ray LaHood and Jerry Weller whose retirements will cost the Land of Lincoln an Appropriations and a Ways & Means committee seat.
The Republicans are in danger of losing more seats in the New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota suburbs. But there is pier damage is places as unlikely as Alaska, where incumbent Don Young is trailing his 2006 opponent in a recent poll 45%-37%. He beat her 57%-40% just last year.
These are the areas where the Republicans have developed severe weaknesses. And when that next wave rolls in, it may wipe out the Republican Party in New England, the Mid-Atlantic, the Upper Midwest, and even Alaska.
And then the Republicans will have to figure out if they want to keep their image as the party of the “vaguely threatening parade of gun fetishists, flat worlders, Mars Explorers, Confederate flag lovers and zombie-eyed-Bible-wavers” we saw in the YouTube debate.
You can add Kentucky to that list along with Ohio and Illinois. Here in the Cincy suburbs of Boone and Kenton county, the anger at the GOP is palpable. Ernie Fletcher was corrupt, now he’s gone. The Cincy area is about as red as you’re going to get around here, and even here the GOP is polling at 50% or so at best.
The rest of the state? Forget it. Kentucky will be UK blue in 2008.
And there are polls to back you up on that.
is the American culture poised for a real transformation? The GOP has governed incompetetently, maliciously and are corrupt. So they’re poised to be wiped out.
But what about the America’s culture? Our we going to abandon our empire festish? Or will that simply reside with the Democratic Party once they take power? Will the pigs become Farmer Jones? If so then a Republican collapse won’t make any difference. Hopefully our movement is the start of something that will facilitate a progressive transformation. I hope so but I’m far from convinced.
What zandar says is true. When Republicans can barely poll, at best, at the 50% level here in the Cincinnati area, you know things are bad for them. I don’t know a whole lot of Republicans who are very enthused about any part of the Republican brand right now. Will they vote Democratic? Probably not. But I hear murmurs from a few that they just might not vote at all. And I can think of very few Republican voting Independents who are even considering voting Republican this go round. It is as bad as I have seen it for the GOP around here in 25 years. And the Dems are pumped. It has been a long time since they have stood any chance to gain the amount of ground that appears to be possible next year in this area.
And as far as the Republican supporters; who in their right mind wouldn’t feel disenchanted after wholeheartedly supporting the most failed administration in modern times.
I wouldn’t count too much on Illinois. We’re among the bluest of the blue at the moment, but a Dem takeover of the governorship and the legislature has brought us the worst state government in living memory. Right now people around here are much more pissed at Dems than Reps. If the state Dems don’t do something right in time for the anger to fade before November, I could see even Durbin having a hard time in his reelection bid, and even the presidential race could bring a nasty surprise.