According to a Pew Hispanic Center poll, the Republicans have lost all the support among Hispanics that they gained early in Bush’s first term.
Hispanics are returning to the Democratic Party after several years of drifting toward the Republicans, with many saying Bush administration policies have been harmful to their community, a poll showed Thursday.
By 57 percent to 23 percent, more Hispanic registered voters say they favor Democrats than Republicans, according to a survey by the nonpartisan Pew Hispanic Center.
Add to this:
Using September 2007 Census Bureau data and projecting from 2004 voting behavior, Pew estimated there would be 8.6 million Hispanic voters next year – 1 million more than in 2004.
While that would be a small portion of the overall expected vote, Pew estimated that Hispanics comprise a large enough share of eligible voters to affect the outcome in four states where Bush prevailed in 2004 by 5 percentage points or fewer: New Mexico, Florida, Colorado and Nevada.
It’s easy to see why. Let’s take that 57%-23% advantage and assign the 20% that are undecided evenly. If the Democrats win the Hispanic vote by a 67%-33% margin, how does that plug into the 8.6 million estimated Hispanic voters?
It comes out to:
Democrats: 5,762,000
Republicans: 2,838,000
Net Democratic advantage: 2,924,000
Bush’s official popular vote margin over John Kerry was 3,337,303. Of course, Kerry won the Hispanic vote, but exit polls showed an anemic 53%-44% advantage. The net difference between pulling 53%-44% and 67%-33% of a 8.6 million voter bloc is approximately two and a half millions votes.
Also of interest:
Among Hispanics who are registered Democrats, 59 percent said they want Hillary Rodham Clinton to be their party’s presidential candidate, followed by 15 percent who prefer Barack Obama. Among Hispanic Republicans, Rudy Giuliani leads Fred Thompson, 35 percent to 13 percent.
The Republicans weakness among Hispanic voters may cost them New Mexico, Florida, Colorado and Nevada in the 2008 election. If they don’t repair the damage, it will cost them a lot more than that over the long term.
It’s not just Hispanics, it is all immigrant groups. As someone who has done a great deal of voter contact work, I have been struck by how much new Americans have been moving to the Democratic party ever since 1994. Since 2001 it has been a tsunami is support for Dem candidates.
Arab Americans and Moslem Americans (overlapping, but different) were predominately Republican, now they are overwhelmingly Democratic.
Indeed I think that is why Rahm Emanuel wants to mobolize against immigrants, he sees that Arab Americans and Moslem Americans are fast becoming a voting blocks within the party and crucial to certain congressional districts.
It was predictable. And it was not just the anti-immigration stance that eventually became the number one Republican issue. It was the obvious antiHispanic rhetoric which made clear that Reaganesque racism still lives and is being used as a political tool.
Unfortunately, the Republicans lost Black racism and welfare as issues after Clinton came on the scene. They found the Hispanics instead.
Down, down they go.
I’m sorry I read these polls and no where, nowhere do I see ethnic groups, particularly Hispanics going to vote in a block for the open border agenda.
No where. I see them very concerned about the rest of working America on economic issues, health care, jobs, equality, but that sure isn’t translating to what the spin is.
Case in point is AZ where they had 4 ballot initiatives to curb illegal immigration and Hispanics voted 50% and only one, which was the harshest one did they vote 34% and that one was denying health care, so I might hesitate also.
So, please do not let the special interests spin this as claiming if and only iff their agenda is enacted will Dems get the Hispanic vote for every single poll I’ve looked at, including this one, it’s just not there.
Well, they certainly aren’t voting for racist Republicans, who see them not as an economic asset, as most farmers do, but as leaches, which they are not. If that were true, then the horde of poor immigrants who came here in the 19th and 20th centuries would be seen in the same light.
I would guess that Hispanic immigrants have learned who their real benefactors are, and it is not wealthy or religious or racist Republicans, who might want to use them, but don’t understand the backfire effect when they become a powerful political block.
If you are a rich man you vote for the Republican.
I you are a poor man you vote for the Democrat
(advise from a sixth grade educated immigrant, my father).
In the past year I have been called a traitor, spick, wetback, beaner and illegal. It’s a hostility, sometimes violent, that many Latin@s are facing everyday. We aren’t stupid, we know why it’s happening: there is no strong pushback against the nativist rantings of pundits and legislators who want to hold a 2007 version of Operation Wetback and use the military for mass deportations.
Keep fighting, Man. Every minority has had to go through this crap. One day it will all seem like a distant memory.
The thing is, many of us knew that migrants would become the next target before it became the cool thing to do. This is only a racial issue become the hardliners have made it so, reinforced by the way many of us get treated. I have little patience for people like Bob who refuse to see that facet of the discussion and make wild accusations that we’re corporate trolls because we happen to see the whole debate from another side. A shittier, more ugly side, I might add. They carry water for the ugliest factions of the U.S. and pretend that they are looking out for the best interest of workers. It’s not a black and white issue and devalues the lives of people that have complicated stories and situations.
The way I understand the Republican agenda is simple: divide and conquer and the easiest way to do that is to scapegoat minorities: as in the antiBlack/antipoverty focused southern strategy of Nixon and Reagan, and now today, with the illegal immigration issue where Hispanics (even though 30% of illegal immigrants are not Hispanic) are the center of the division and hate.
Republicans cannot run a campaign on the premise that we need to give tax breaks to the wealthy and corporations, the “have-mores,” as Bush put it, and expect to win. They need a devisive cover issue. At least that is my opinion, even though Bush has been wishy-washy about it himself, believing the Republicans can win over many Hispanics, as in Texas.
don’t throw colorado in there just yet boo…it’s an uphill battle, especially with hillary.
updated polls, colorado: [as of 4 dec]
go to the rasmussen poll in the first link and you’ll get a better view of the situation, esp regarding immigrants and policies that will effect the impact of the hispanic vote.
it’s going to be damned difficult for a demoRAT, esp. hillary, to win in colorado, and her coattails are not going to help udall, no matter how far right he moves.
and probably much the same applies in the balance of the mtn. west, and southwest.
my 2¢
lTMF’sA
I recommend reading Liza’s piece yesterday: Why I love immigration as a wedge issue?.
The way this debate has unfolded has shown the true colors of many elected officials and candidates for office (of both parties). Immigration reform is not a Latin@ issue, but with the racist/nativist set being allowed to drive the debate and blur the lines between legal status and meaning of cultural expressions, it’s no surprise that many Latin@ voters are reevaluating their political loyalties.
While the point that it is the US Chamber of Commerce/foreign/trade policies that are the root cause of economic migration N, unfortunately trying to link up to people who spin the facts and even positions statements from labor to advance a open border agenda is absurd. It’s astounding to me how the spin is just being shoveled think and heavy while anyone who reads bills, knows that a critical aspect to labor markets is a controlled immigration policy are ignored.
Esp. migra matters. I’ve never read so much spin and buried open border agenda than in those posts. It’s just unreal, the real policy being pushed is blatant no immigration policy at all, open border but unfortunately you must even understand the issue firstly and secondly be able to read the bills and finally get through massive amounts of verbage to realize it.
Migra Matters?
One of the best, most intelligent, and most comprehensive sites on immigration on the internet. No MinuteMen or right wing Republicans need apply.
Since you’ve been banned from dailykos you’re still at it with the name calling rhetoric and little fact.
No, Migra maters is the worst because he spends a hell of a lot of time spinning the facts and buring them.
This is way beyond a “pathway to citizenship” that he promotes, way beyond that but he spins it as it is not what it is, which is defacto open border no controls at all position.
No you don’t see.
You started out knocking Hispanics and then when you were called on it, you switched to HB1 malarkey. Now you are back knocking Hispanics. You are against the Democratically supported Senate bill on immigration. In short, you are still lost and possibly should get over to Little Green Footballs. I think Charles Johnson has been getting into antiHispanic bigotry of late.
Bye.
us how to think and observe the world around us, Bob. You’re convinced that you hold all the truths.
I am a contributing editor at Migra Matters and proud of it, by the way.
The revision rocks, great job on the badge.
Welcome Duke. Although I think you can get a bigger audience over a Daily Kos, this is not a bad place to bring liberal issues. Please come back.
sought refuge here, I’ll have to resume some more frequent posting. 🙂
Some one has to hold up the “open borders” agenda and make sure we “get all of (the) illegals citizenship, damn the torpedoes on what that does to labor markets or US workers” …how else could I subvert the Progessive movement for my “corporate masters”, for whom I am an “obvious paid shill”….
yes, I really do need to post here more often …(cue, evil laughter…ha,ha,ha, ha)
Actually, it is the first time I’ve seen Oak here plying his Tancredo seeds, and other nonsense. I assume that the Daily Kos crowd got tired of his bigoted Republican pleas to screw poor immigrant Hispanics.
Come around. Not a bad place to hang out.
We all know Duke you cannot stand anyone who actually understands the legislation, your open border agenda and policy. But fear not, your little spider trap of troll gangs trying to repress any discussion or fact and especially your corporate agenda to assist the US Chamber of Commerce, Bill Gates, NASSCOM and the entire global labor arbitrage, race to the bottom agenda…
is just noise in the machine and I certainly could care less what your little spin machine and name callers do in trying to silence real facts.
Ohhhhh ahhhhh. You’re a sharp one Robert. Duke, we might as well give up, we can’t get one past Robert. He is too smart for us. I might as well just tell you the truth. What our real agenda is all about. Yes, we are trying to the silence the real fact, but not for what you think, it is part of our plot to “reconquer” the territories ceded to the United States in 1848.
Y sabes que vato, its working …. bwahahahaha
que malo eres. 🙂
un pocito >:)
I’ve been posting here on border and immigration issues since this site launched nearly three years ago, Bob. Look for troll gangs elsewhere.
what Bob doesn’t understand is that no one has troll rated him here and let his comments stand…even though his agenda is obviously not a progressive one.
troll ratings are pretty rare in these parts and are generally reserved for serious trolling.
as it should be.
Bob should fuck off. He is apparently angry because he lost a job to a foreigner, probably due to the fact that he was too lazy to keep up his skills.
Don’t pay attention. The hate comes through loud and clear.
Since you’ve been banned from dailykos you’re still at it with the name calling rhetoric and little fact.
Sorry Duke, I know you tried but I am not banned from dailykos.
referred to this:
you’re still at it with the name calling rhetoric
Since you were compelled to bring my name up in a diary that had absolutely no mention of me whatsoever in it, or it’s comments, at a site I haven’t posted at in at least six months.
My God, are you fixated or what?
What compels you to go around the web, to anything remotely doing with immigration, and post up crap like – “Esp. migra matters. I’ve never read so much spin and buried open border agenda than in those posts.”?
What was the context for that comment?… Was anyone here discussing Migra Matters? …Did anyone mention my name?…Post a link? What made you bring me up out of the blue?
Think about it, because a really think you need to seek professional help….your obsessing.
A BT trollrate…never got one of those before…
actually only saw them thrown around here once or twice …and those were during some of the hairiest flamewars I’ve ever been witness to…and even then it was maybe only one or two in discussions so unbelievably heated and passionate that longtime friendships were destroyed, with people still regreting to this day some of the words spoken in the heat of debate.
But then again you’ve always had an itchy donut finger… Even on a site where they are never used … oh well
According to the William C. Velásquez Institute, conducted an exit poll to measure how Latinos voted during the November 2004 Presidential elections. Latino Turnout was 71%
Kerry had 63.6% of the Latino vote, while Bush had 35.1%.
We can even break it down forther.
Kerry = Native Born 63.7%, Foreign Born 64.6%
Bush = Native Born 36.3%, Foreign Born 31.3%
Nadar = Foreign Born 4.2%
They also conducted an exit poll during the November 2006 General elections.
Democrats: 69.96%
Republican: 25.96%
I’m in favor of open borders. Globally. As long as nation-states are able to create situations of artificial scarcity, none of the big problems facing the world are likely to be solved.
As I’ve noted before, I don’t have a whole lot of sympathy for white Americans who have lost their jobs to illegal immigrants. (African-Americans, I think, have room to complain, having been denied many opportunities here.) There is simply no reason for a white American to be performing unskilled or semi-skilled labor beyond laziness and lack of ambition. The educational opportunities were there. The employment opportunities were there. All they had to do was get off their asses and work hard for it. If, having turned up their noses at the opportunities laid before them, they are displaced by people who come from countries with fewer opportunities and who are willing to work hard, well, fuck ’em. You have the right to be an ignorant redneck, but you cannot expect to be subsidized for your non-contribution to society.
that is a really obnoxious comment. There are hundreds of thousands of Americans that are not blessed with school smarts or are learning disabled, or who just prefer manual labor. Suggesting there is something wrong with a white person if they mow lawns, pick produce, or clean hotel rooms is a very terrible thing to say.
If you prefer manual labor, you have to accept the fact that you are easy to replace and the job will always go to whomever is willing to work for the lowest wages. I’d prefer lots of things, but beyond my fundamental civil rights, I’m not asking the government to artificially create a set-aside so I can indulge my preferences, nor am I voting for racist policies to protect them. That’s not how adults ought behave in the real world. My objection isn’t that people work low-value jobs; it’s that they work low-value jobs when they could be doing something of a higher value, and then complain when their inherent replaceability bites them in the ass.
I’m not talking about the disabled in this context at all. Protection and help is warranted for people who actually need it. I would, however, note that you don’t have to be “blessed with school smarts” to attend a state college — or even a community college or technical school – and acquire the basic skills necessary to perform some kind of skilled labor. You just have to be willing to work hard and not take the least challenging road available to you.