Yesterday, The New York Times (Sunday edition) devoted almost a full page of its Op-Ed section to a number of short essays written by economists, Wall Street analysts, scholars and fellows at various “think tanks” (both liberal and conservative) government advisers (past or present) and prominent business people (many of these folks fit into more than one category, by the way). The question they were all asked to address: Are We in a Recession?
In the beautiful prose of their well written pontifications, some answered this question “No,” some said “Maybe,” some said “Yes” and some said “Yes, but …” Some of them claimed that the recession likely will be severe, while others, more sanguine of our prospects, said that it likely would not. All wrote very well argued, well supported opinions. Indeed, many of these no doubt highly intelligent, no doubt highly educated and no doubt well compensated folks offered up a potpourri of statistics regarding the US economy, including figures on our gross domestic product (i.e., GDP), consumer spending, core inflation rate, the real estate market, the home mortgage/credit crisis, and even on US exports (which one gentleman tried very hard to argue will save America’s bacon regardless of how bad the everything else gets) to buttress their contentions.
Not one of them used any profane or obscene language to describe our current economic situation such as you often find on certain wild and woolly liberal blogs, where silly, dirty hippies congregate to spout their ill informed opinions to the nameless hordes surfing the internets. No, these are all respectable, serious people, whose serious resumes and serious opinions were no doubt suitably vetted by the serious editors at the estimable (and super-serious) New York Times.
Oddly enough (well, not really, I just like to use the word odd in all its varieties when discussing serious purveyors of news and public opinion such as, for example, The New York Times) there was one significant group of individuals who apparently were not asked to contribute to this discussion by answering the question posed by the Times’ editors, as to whether “we” are in a recession (and I’m using we here in the same sense as that term is used in the phrase “We the People” in the Preamble to the Constitution of the United States of America, rather than limiting it to any “subset” of said “we” such as financial institutions, economists, investors, fellows at well known non-profit educational and policy foundations or highly compensated, highly educated, and highly intelligent people offered the chance to present their opinions on the Op-Ed pages of The New York Times). Can you guess who those people might be, the ones whose opinions were deemed unsuitable for inclusion alongside all of these well spoken and well informed worthies the Times chose to answer this question of serious concern to all Americans?
Maybe this article from the Detroit Free Press the other day can give you a hint:
The job market in Michigan is so tough that for some even moving to Iraq sounds good.
The pay is high, as much as $212,000 for a yearlong stint.
So Friday, in the first hour of a Warren job fair for work maintaining military vehicles in Iraq, about 100 people came looking to apply.
“There’s no money coming in right now. There are no jobs. There is nothing,” J.J. Woodman, 30, of Hazel Park said. “I’ve been on the computer and driving around for four months — there’s nothing. Everybody wants to make it sound good, but when it comes down to it, nobody is hiring. Everybody is laying off.” […]
The U.S. Army TACOM Life Cycle Management Command’s Red River Depot in Texarkana, Texas, wants to hire more than 500 people to work in Iraq for one year and one day. About 600 applications were submitted Friday.
The depot has held similar job fairs in the South, but organizers said they thought the Detroit area might be promising with its high population of autoworkers and the lack of jobs.
That’s right, dear readers, the people who The New York Times did not chose to answer its very serious question “Are We in a Recession” are people looking for work. People so desperate that they are willing to risk their lives and the real possibility of sexual assault in order to land a position with the US Military to work in Iraq. People without any better options. People already experiencing first hand what a recession feels like, an experience I somehow doubt most of the highly intelligent, highly educated and highly compensated experts the Times chose to answer its question have ever had the opportunity to suffer through themselves.
Which isn’t to say we shouldn’t be hearing what all these bright, brilliant, accomplished and adroit experts on our economy have to say about our current economic conditions and our (“our” used here to refer to you, me and everyone else residing in the Land of the Free) economy’s prospects for the future. We would be fools not to consider what they, with all their knowledge and “experience” have to tell us.
But wouldn’t it be nice if, for once, alongside all those clever, talented, erudite people who have spent their careers in academia or government or high finance thinking their deep thoughts about these profoundly important matters, we also had the opportunity to hear, in the pages of the “Nation’s Newspaper of Record,” from people who have a little more experience (of the “up close and personal” kind) vis-a-vis our current economy? People who have lost their jobs due to gross mismanagement and mistakes by the elite corporate executives who led many of our banks, mortgage companies, automobile manufacturers, etc. into bankruptcy and financial ruin. People who are unemployed or underemployed? People working two lower paying jobs to make ends meet because they can’t find a job in their field. People who lost their health insurance when they lost their jobs, or who live in fear each day that they will be the next ones to be kicked to the curb by our Grand and Glorious Global Economy.
You know, the sort of people who never get an opportunity to write an opinion piece for The New York Times, that bastion of journalistic excellence and influence, even if they might be just as highly educated, just as highly intelligent and just as erudite as those upon whom the editors of the Times choose to bestow such boons. People who can put a face to all the dry economic statistics cited, and the confusing jargon (not that there’s anything wrong with that) employed, by the highly gifted, highly qualified “experts” in their no doubt extremely extensive explications of the problems plaguing our economy. Maybe — just maybe — the people on the front lines of Bush’s war on the poor and middle class might have something relevant to say about the state of our world of which even an expert in finance or economics or government policy might not be aware.
Whattayathink?
It used to be that if you had two good hands and a strong work ethic you could make a decent life for yourself and family in this country. I continued to believe until very lately that I could work my way out of any problem or setback so long as I was willing to put in the hours. Not any more though. Workers, real American asskickin workers are a dying breed. Wages are stagnant or regressive. Unions are extinct. Any attempts to increase the minimum wage are attached to tax cuts for employers. Rent’s, mortgages, fuel, food, christ, milk is 5 bucks a gallon, health coverage beyond the reach of most working class…and on and on and on.
Whattayathink?
I think we’re fucked. And the worse off people become the more the system will be overloaded with those seeking assistance. As for being so desperate as to head to Iraq, I can’t get my head around that right now.
I don’t think people have really come to grips with the fact that the foundation of the unique American structure, which created the “middle class” as we know it, really no longer exists. There are forms of it, pieces which are recognizable. But it is gone for good. The remaining pieces give the illusion that all is right. But it is not reality. Like a sandcastle at the edge the surf, the middle class foundation has slowly disintegrated with each successive wave. One or two grains at a time have been removed over the last generation. And people have not changed their mindset that a whole new approach is necessary in order to sustain a middle class life style.
The genesis of the middle class deconstruction might well have been the PATCO strike and the firing of all the air traffic controllers. It has really been all downhill from there. I started work after college in 1979. I experienced my first “downsize” in 1981. From that point on I think I realized in the back of my mind where this thing was headed and have tried over the years to avoid putting myself in the type of job situation that would seem to be vulnerable. So far, I have been successful. But the margin for error is much less than it used to be.
Now, at 50, I’m just hoping to hold on. Every year things hit closer to home. My wife, who has spent over 30 years at the same privately held company, just found out they have been purchased by a large Indian corporation. She is likely to lose her job early next year. Now it’s my sandcastle that is disintegrating. And all you can do is hope for the best, but plan for the worst. Because the waves never stop. And the sandcastles are no match for the waves.
I’ve been struggling for days to come up with a pithy term to describe the current situation, something similar to the term stagflation used under Carter.
“Recession” is a macro-economic term and the rules for declaring one look at the overall economic activity.
What we have now is a (here’s where I have trouble) “split recession”, “semi-recession”, “sector recession”.
The overall economy is still growing but that’s because the wealthy are so wealthy and are still spending and because exports are increasing on the back of the weak dollar.
Those below a certain threshold are already losing ground. Their fuel, food and health care costs are rising and their earnings are not. There hasn’t been a drop in employment as is usual in a recession (at least not yet), but there has been a weakening of the labor market as salaries decline because of job give backs and other shifts in labor relations.
If you lose your job and find another one at a lower salary then the employment figures don’t reflect this.
A good, catchy, phrase (which mine aren’t) would go a long way to crystallize what is happening in the public’s mind. I’m open to suggestions…
Frankly I think it’s comparable to the late 20’s when the market was still high, but farmers and laborers were struggling to make ends meet. It’s the result of a similar (indeed near identical) level of income inequality.
We call it Disaster Capitalism now. Back then they just called it Business as usual.
“…Frankly I think it’s comparable to the late 20’s…”
exactly, the desparity of income and accumulated wealth is equal to, or greater than it was just prior to the crash in 29. and as far as government economic policies, even discounting the effects on the overall economic health of the country of cronyism and outright theft, it is, once again, Business as Usual.
this from the saturday edition of the nyt:
these numbers represent to conditions as they were in 2005, and personal experience tells me that it has only gotten worse the past two years.
lTMF’sA
Quick, somebody call that mother and tell her to get on the first bus to the Warren job fair.
Maybe Jamie Leigh Jones can give her some insider contact information at Halliburton/KBR.
The “people’ are only pertinent insofar as they are statistically necessary to generate a report to justify their contentions for their particular economic view.
As for the “real people: “Qu’ils mangent de la brioche”
Whatdayathink? I will tell ya Steven- The lemmings will line up and sign up. More than 50% will support the bastards! They will do so because they see no alternative. None. When they look at the Dems, all they see are plantation slaves Ya siring their way into oblivion.The know that the goopers are destroying this country but they have been made so fearful that all they can think about is saving their asses. They have been made to believe that the brown hoards are crossing the borders and taking away thier jobs. They believe that the Araaabs are stealing their oil. They believe that Congress is destroying our “War on Terror”. They believe that Gays are destroying their children.
That is what they believe and that is what is going to end this country! And that is what I believe.
think that you should pay the NY Times and the rest of the so-called “opinion makers” no mind.
Why do you wanste your time even reading them, let alone blathering about their blathering.
They are a closed shop. They preach only to a given choir, and that choir only sings the tune that they are told to sing by said opinion makers.
Opt out.
You be bettah off.
AG
P.S. By the way…$212K for a year of work?
Are they hiring musicians?
Have axe, will travel.
Sadly our political class does pay attention to these clowns and the experts the Times’ editors promote will be serving in one capacity or another in the next administration.
And I know you’re not serious about Iraq. Playing gigs for gang rapists? Wearing a flak jacket and helmet everywhere you go?
Nah.
It is only a recession for the average person or stock holder. For the wealthy, the top ten percent of whom own 85% of the stock market, the action is in foreign markets and companies that do business internationally. For them, there is no recession.
it’s getting harder and harder not to utterly adore you, steven d. hah hah, talk about and to the actual unemployed? heavens, no! the nyt is a holy place and must remain unsullied by the narratives of the great unwashed in flyoverland.
also- speak of actual poverty and you must speak of brown and black and undocumented people, you know, the ones who keep this country running. those who sit atop high perches and look down upon the toiling proletariat would soil themselves to actually engage the working people, goodness knows.
no, “everything is fine” for those with trust funds, inheritances, guaranteed jobs because their families and friends do the hiring, and best of all a public bullhorn. of course they look down on us, when they bother to think of us. we don’t “deserve” what they have, because if we did, we’d already have it. that’s the logic of the ruling classes, and believe me they avoid all opportunities to explore why their belief system may not be true, as steven points out.
of course we’re in a recession, and one that’s going to get worse. words like “the economy” don’t have meaning to those looking for work, going hungry, or out on the street. i’m sick and tired of treating the metrics and measures found in sclm econ discussions as if they had meaning in the real world of 95% of people in this country. they don’t. the fact that they lie more blatantly about economic numbers today only reinforces my decision to ignore most of them.
doesn’t it feel like President Carter is in office, not a slam. But prices are going up, core inflation or not, you still paying a lot more money for the same thing. Wages don’t seem to be going up, the dollars is at rock bottom so all those imports will cost more–i.e. you no longer feel cheated when a Canadian penny shows up in your change. Housing crisis just isn’t sub-prime anymore and probably wasn’t from the start. Iraq war spending is a big drag on our economy.
I think were about to get slammed with a recession..just like when W’s daddy left office..but much worst.