Yesterday I predicted that Mike Huckabee, quite comfortably, and John Edwards, in an essential tie with Obama, would win the Iowa caucuses. I revised that prediction this morning when I saw that Biden and Richardson were going to throw their support to Barack Obama. My final prediction was that Obama and Huckabee would win, and that Clinton would finish third. I win!!
Here’s my next prediction. Mitt Romney is done. Romney has some narrow room for hope in that most independents in New Hampshire will probably choose to vote for Obama over McCain. And Fred Thompson could be a wild card. Thompson finished ahead of McCain in Iowa but he still might drop out and endorse McCain. If Thompson stays in he could peel off enough McCain support to hand the Granite State to Romney. But here is what I see happening over the next five days:
The Republican Establishment is going to go apoplectic at the prospect of a Huckabee nomination. The media is going to focus on two huge story lines: 1) Barackapalooza 2) enormous turnout among Democrats and Democratic preference among independents, young people, etc. This will lead to even more Republican panic. Where can they turn for salvation? Rudy Giuliani just lost over 3 to 1 to Ron Paul. It’s McCain or Thompson, and Thompson is sleepwalking. Everything the media and the Establishment has is going to be thrown into bucking up McCain. And it will work. McCain will win New Hampshire.
McCain will lose South Carolina and Florida, but he’ll win Michigan. And then it will be a war on Feb. 5th to decide the nomination of the Republican Party.
On the Democratic side, Hillary is done. She will never recover her footing. She will come in third again in New Hampshire. She will not win in South Carolina. Her best best is to win in the Nevada caucuses. She won’t win there. She may not win a single primary (although, I think she can win a few states, including New York, on Feb. 5th). Right now we have a two way race between Obama and Edwards and I can’t see anyway that Edwards wins it unless something strange happens.
It’s only one caucus, but this thing is almost settled. It will almost definitely be Obama vs. McCain…but Huckabee has a real shot. That’s my prediction.
Obama will beat McCain. Obama will destroy Huckabee.
Not even a 2 man race. It’s Obama imo.
I think Edwards is, for most purposes, finished right now. He doesn’t have the money or, more importantly, the organization to take on Obama. Obama has shown that he has the organization to bring out huge numbers. The latest Iowa turnout numbers show 230,000 for the Democrats tonight. That’s bigger than anyone even dreamed of. He has the money to do it again in NH. He’s been ahead of Edwards in NH and now he’ll get a bounce – possibly a huge bounce. Edwards is finished, the only question is when Edwards drops out so that his supporters can migrate to Obama and finish off Hillary.
Hillary is not quite finished yet, but she’s gasping. She has the money to stay in until at least Super Tuesday and she’ll win states on Super Tuesday. But Obama beats her in the end.
And I think you’re right. He’ll beat McCain and Huckabee, whichever gets it.
I agree. The Dragon has been dealt a critical wound. But she is not dead. The townspeople can not go galavanting about yet. A strong second would look like an improvement for her. So could SC. Then she can frame herself as the Comeback Girl and start winning bigger states. She will at least try.
I just worked out the historical bounce numbers.
An Iowa bounce gives:
1st place: +14.5
2nd place: +3.2
3rd place: -3.5
4th place: 4.4
Translation for NH:
Obama: 41.5%
Clinton: 23.5%
Edwards: 21.7%
Richardson: 1.4%
Romney: 32.0%
McCain: 26.9%
Huckabee: 24.0%
I still think Hillary will stay in through SuperTuesday even if Obama gets that much.
Although I wonder what this fast track schedule does to the bounce this year. Could it make it less because there’s less time for the public to take it in? I actually think speeding things up could make it bigger. Guess we’ll see.
the pre-NH debates will be HUGE.
Edwards has to move ahead of Clinton in NH and make it a two-person race. His only chance is the debate.
Meanwhile, McCain has to beat Romney or he is done.
That likely means that the NH debate could be a duking-out session between Clinton and Edwards. Honestly, I think Clinton’s in a tough spot here – if she goes drastically negative on Obama, she’s going to probably take a further hit in the polls. It’s a no-win situation for her.
When is the debate?
Saturday night on ABC.
If McCain doesn’t beat Romney then Huckabee becomes even more of a problem for the Republicans. He’ll beat Romney in the south because of the religion issue.
The odd thing is – if the Republican Party supported Huckabee, I think he could give Obama a run for his money. I still think Obama would win but Huckabee would have a chance. I can’t tell you how many otherwise sane and rational people have said to me in the last couple of weeks that they are impressed with Mike Huckabee. The Republican establishment won’t support him though. They couldn’t even bring themselves to talk about him tonight. Even though he gave a very nice and personable victory speech 🙂
I agree about Huckabee. He comes across to most people as extremely likeable and honest. That’s what most people see–not the “gaffes” and the lack of foreign policy knowledge. I think he could be a formidable general election opponent. And that scares me, not because I’m afraid of Mike Huckabee per se, but because it will make his explicitly religious rhetoric acceptable in American society. Unfortunately, there are a lot of people out there who think we should be a “Christian” nation.
Hillary may stay in the race but she will lose support left and right to Obama.
Much of her support was from people who believed the “inevitable” narrative. We all now know that she is not. Obama blew her out of the water and people are finally taking him seriously. She still has some supporters who desperately want “a woman” as president but Obama beat her big time among women in Iowa and that was not expected. I expect more will peel away from her now.
Also, for all the blacks sitting back waiting to see if the white folks in Iowa could get behind a black candidate, now they know. And that MLK-esque speech last night may have sealed the deal for many of them. Clinton just lost loads of black support.
Agree with Mary above – Edwards is done. A few true believers over at dKos are saying that the ‘real’ winner tonight was Edwards, but make no mistake – he needed to win to maintain any sort of viability, and he didn’t. Once he loses in South Carolina, he will drop out.
Clinton will get 2nd in New Hampshire, but I think Obama’s going to see a pretty reasonable bounce from his win and go on to score a double-digit victory. I can see Hillary winning Nevada, but South Carolina will go heavily for Obama. By then, momentum will be fully behind Obama, and I expect him to win virtually all of the Super Tuesday states with ease (sweeping the South and taking California).
I think the dynamic would be different if the results were closer tonight, but a 9% victory over Clinton was drastically bigger than even the optimistic prognosticators I spoke with were expecting. Obama is in extremely good shape.
The desperate wish for something good to happen after all of this bad shit.
You write:
We have seen too many Fitzmasses past that FitzFizzled out.
All the lefty “sure things” that have tanked over the last 4 years.
And then there is always Dean’s fate to remember.
It’s a long road to the convention, and a longer, harder road to the Presidency. Obama is fighting seasoned pros who do not give up.
The Clinton machine, the RatPublican machine with all of its Swift Boaters…
Good first round is all.
Probably a good second round in New Hampshire as well. It comes too quickly for the Clintonistas to regroup.
But regroup they will.
Bet on it.
Obama is STILL an outsider, and the media is still controlled by insiders.
Right now he is good story…a GREAT story, a feel-good story. And the media arte covering it as such. Why? It sells pharmaceuticals and toilet paper.
When the first blush of victory wears off…can he make the long haul?
I would be happy if he could, actually. But let’s not break out the champagne too quickly.
It has gone flat too many times in the past.
AG
The ghost of Sirhan Sirhan lurks…but we’ve never had as good of a backup as John Edwards. You worry too much. Allow yourself to dream, Arthur. The arc of history is long, but it bends towards justice.
I’m with Gilroy here and I’ve very rarely agreed with him in the past. Maybe I’m cynical…um, okay I am cyncial, but I do see what both of you are saying.
I read your post and felt all bubbly for a hot minute, then I remembered all the dreams and hopes dashed these last several years. I’ve a bad taste in my mouth from the recent Democratic majority in Congress, from Lamont’s loss, from so much.
I can only hope that Obama can continue to work outside the system. For the past 9 months, we’ve seen almost nothing but attacks on him and a quite a few fuckups from his campaign and still the people of Iowa overlooked all that and voted for him. That does give me hope yet in the back of my mind all I think is “Anything can change between now and Feb. 5th.”.
Just not into self-deceiving.
Peeder over on pff!!! pins it today.
Yup.
It ain’t over ’til the short lady concedes.
bet on it.
And even THEN it’s just beginning.
As Martin Luther King Jr. said, he arc of history is indeed long, and it indeed bends towards justice.
But this Iowa thing is just a jot and a jiggle of that arc. A segment of it. And when MLK Jr. used the word “long”, he knew JUST what he meant.
As in up close and personal.
As in being himself 4 or 5 or more generations removed from oine of the most evil human movements that the world has ever seen, American slavery of African people.
As in he himself staring down the barrel of a gun that I am convinced he knew would kill him before he was through trying to do what he set out to do.
As in seeing generations FURTHER down that road.
As in having the faith that one way or another, “justice” will and always has been served.
Is Obama the culmination of that arc that started in Africa in the 1600s?
Could be.
But a few thousand Iowans do not a pot of gold make.
Not by a LONG shot.
And the self-satisfied crowing of a desperate-for-reassurance, soft, moody left is if anything a drawback to the success of the course of that arc, in my opinion.
That movement towards the end of the deadly poison of racism that has so crippled this country over the course of its history.
I actually saw something on TV last night that more reassured me in that direction than ANYTHING that has happened on the political front.
A SHOTIMES documentary about the preparation of a very good young Brooklyn Italian welterweight fighter named Paulie Malignaggi for his bout last summer against Miguel Cotto.
Now…I lived in some Brooklyn Italian neighborhoods in the ’70s (Red Hook, Carroll Gardens), WAY before gentrification; I have hung some with working class Italian wiseguy types now and again over the years as well and I married into a family that had roots in Italian Brooklyn. Believe me…I know the style, at least the ’90s and before version thereof. I kind of expected this kid…a real talker, a classic Brooklyn wiseguy type himself…to be a racist, baseball bat-carrying punk. And I expected his entourage to be the same.
OH boy, was I wrong!!!
He lives an almost totally integrated life.
Sure, he jokes about “a buncha good looking guineas” being named Grand Marshals of the Puerto Rican Day Parade after he beats Cotto. (Which he did not do, although he fought one hell of a fight.) BUT…he reads Spanish; he speaks the multi-racial dialect of the streets; his entourage is totally mixed racially and culturally, and he shows not a WHIT of the old-line urban Italian-American anti-black and hispanic racism.
Things they ARE ‘a changin’!!!
And not just on the news shows from Iowa.
I got yer “dreaming”.
Right HERE!!!
It’s happening on the streets.
Iowa is just a pale reflection of that dream.
As politics is ALWAYS a bunch of steps behind the vanguard of reality.
I got yer dream.
Right HERE!!!
Hillary done! Music to my ears.
BooMan. Love, many hugs and kisses. Hillary is done. done. done.
As for Obie. May he be kept safe. The fear of another Sirhan Sirhan looms.
but pygalgia called it correctly yesterday in jim yeager’s contest at skippy.
On the morrow of the Iowa caucus in 1980, you could open any newspaper in the country and read the political obituary of Ronald Reagan. Hillary is very much in the race still and will be even after Obama wins NH.
With the compressed primary schedule, there isn’t much opportunity after New Hampshire for personal campaigning. The fact that Clinton does better with the older demographic is going to be in her favor as the primaries progress. Older voters are historically more likely to vote, and there isn’t time to draw younger voters into the process in, say, California, like there was in Iowa.
I think it may be a while before this is settled. It will be close, perhaps as close as Reagan-Ford was in 1976.
I’m amazed that Romney can outpoll McCain 2-to-1 and McCain is declared the winner. There’s something wrong there. Romney and McCain should finish 1-2 in NH; I don’t see that as hurting either of them. I don’t think anybody has to drop out of this on the GOP side, though Thompson might because he just isn’t enjoying it.
If the GOP race reduces to a Huckabee-Romney or Huckabee-McCain contest by February 5, then I think it also will be a tight race that won’t be decided until the late primaries. If the GOP field doesn’t narrow that much by February 5, I think we’re looking at a brokered convention.
If you are even close in your predictions, it dramatically increases the meed for repug suppression of the vote during the election campaign!. Thus- the magic word-Caging!!!!
There lise the gooper salvation. Supress the vote. reduce the hated dem rolls of eligible voters!
Wanna predict on this?????????????????????????????
I am sure you are right on this. But if we can continue to increase the number of democratic voters like just happened in Iowa, it won’t matter. So often our young Dems just don’t follow through and show up. If they can be kept excited about a candidate until November, that candidate will win by huge margins, even with GOP caging going on.
not that i think you’re wrong, boo, but is there a list of former iowa winners available?
granted, things are different today than in previous campaigns, but i seem to recall a rather interesting list of “didn’t win in iowa” presidents we’ve had.
.
If you don’t count the “uncommitted” slates that won the 1972 and 1976 Democratic caucuses, only two presidential candidates (excluding incumbents) have won Iowa and went on to win the presidency.
The most recent example was Texas Governor George W. Bush, who handily defeated publisher Steve Forbes in the 2000 Republican race. Bush went on to win the nomination and was elected that autumn.
And 1976, an unknown former governor of Georgia, Jimmy Carter came out of nowhere to beat Birch Bayh, propelling Carter to the nomination and the presidency.
…
In 1976, the Iowa Republican Party scheduled its party caucuses on the same date as the Democrats. President Gerald Ford won the caucus, but battled Ronald Reagan right up to the convention. Ford narrowly lost to Democrat Jimmy Carter in the November election.
Reagan lost Iowa in 1980, too, this time to George H.W. Bush. But Reagan rebounded in New Hampshire and grabbed the nomination, picked Bush as his running mate and defeated Carter in the general election.
[The surprise win in Iowa caucus of George H.W. Bush led to his selection as Reagan running-mate and inevitably to the Bush presidential dynasty. Where’s Jeb? – Oui]
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."
You know, it would be nice if some of us could actually VOTE before everyone starts declaring who the nominee is.
I’m so frustrated by premature declarations of who the nominee is going to be. A long road to the nomination is in everyone’s best interests, but nobody can bear to wait a couple of weeks (hell, they can’t wait a couple of hours) to bless someone.
In 2004, everyone rushed to get behind Kerry, and we ended up with …. not the best nominee we could have had. I’m not slamming Obabma, but I’d like to see him tested a bit more before the Republicans start slicing and dicing him.
I’ve been in Edwards’ corner for a long time (though I gave money to Dodd, too) but I really thought he had to come out with a win in Iowa to remain viable. I still think that.
I don’t think Edwards wants to play 2nd fiddle again. But if Obama wins convincingly in New Hampshire (which I fully expect him to do) and Edwards pulls 3rd, if Edwards then endorsed Obama in return for the VP slot, I think that’d be game, set, and match right there. For the primary AND the general. Obama / Edwards would be a very, very strong ticket.
… remaining shot that Edwards has of getting free media for his messaging and, more importantly, framing, and getting Culinary’s support in NV, is to beat Clinton again in NH, finishing second to Obama.
Two third place finishes for Clinton in IA and NH changes the complexion of the race entirely, as she falls back to her firm support and her soft support decides which way to jump. She then has to go negative against Obama to keep all of her soft support from jumping to Obama, even though its risky tactic … and she still has a boatload of money with which to go negative, even into Feb. 5.
Now, that result also probably increases Obama’s likelihood of getting nominated, but Edwards diminished chances are now entirely at the expense of Senator Clinton’s chances in any event, so that would be something to look at later if he scores the upset.
You’ve obviously followed Edwards closely, do you think he would go for VP again? And would Obama’s team offer it to him? Conventional wisdom says someone with more foreign affairs gravitas, but does the “southernness” of Edwards help in an equal way? Finally, the “fight” vs. “kumbaya” approach, can they be married?
… there have been lots of marriages like that in tickets down the years, in particular with the fight on the VP side.
Of course, if Obama is the JFK-alike and Edwards is the RFK-alike, then to complete the picture, Edwards has to be Obama’s AG and then run for the Presidency in 2016.
I am amzed that so many here are calling this campaign over already. It is way too close to even consider throwing in the towel yet. I am still in Edwards corner and just sent more money to his campaign. He needs us and damn we need him. Obama gives great speeches. Still not seeing much else. Hate his “health policy” with a passion. Still leaves too many uninsured and he believes we need permanent bases in Iraq. We need permanent bases no where in the world. It is a huge waste of money.
Permanent Bases?
Obama has said: “We will not have permanent bases in Iraq”
As for the health plan, Robert Reich said, “all the leading Democratic plans are basically the same apart from mandates, which would apply to a tiny fraction of the currently uninsured.”
… about labor economics than I ever will, but the two alternatives on the mandate question are:
In the first case, its bad policy, in the second case, its short-sighted politics to support right wing talking points against protection against freeloaders … as well as being a healthy dose of politics as usual.
about the bases. I read that later in the day. My mistake.
I make no predictions, but doesn’t it stand to reason that Hillary’s poor showing in Iowa (yay!!!) changes the dynamics of Obama vs Edwards for the coming primaries? Without the Hillary “inevitability” factor, is it not in a sense a new ball game. Comments, anyone?
… depends on NH’s result and how it is seen by Culinary.
Beating Clinton twice in a row is a minimum requirement to getting Culinary’s support … as well as a minimum requirement for Clinton to be bleeding big chunks of bandwagon rider support in NV. But its nothing like the clout that an IA win would have been, so the more decisively he beats Senator Clinton, the better, and even there, its far from short odds.
A win before SC is necessary both to have a chance in SC and for a win in SC to be more than an afterthought.
Obama’s knocked Edwards out of his plan A in his four state strategy … he is now left with plan B. And it was reasonably clear what that plan B was from his taking the cable-news speech position while the cable networks where hanging on for Senator Clinton’s concession speech.
If Edwards can beat Clinton twice, but its in the shadow of two Obama victories, he’ll still be very long odds to get the nomination, but OTOH he’ll be shorter odds than he was before IA.
Totally agree,Boo.
Edwards can do well in NH, but Hil’s supporters find most of what they want with Obama. Either way, it’s not about the win so much as it is how the win plays. This is a huge boost for Obama, and his independent-strong push will play incredibly well in NH.
Also, who wouldn’t want to get one of those speeches–they’re like candy! Gimmme one, too!