One of the benefits of not having a dog in the presidential primaries is that I can sit back and do punditry without worrying much about whether it will affect the outcome (not that it would, in any case). I’ve seen a few people come out and say that they really hate someone’s policy on this or that (e.g., Obama’s health care plan) but there aren’t any real differences in the policies of the big three candidates. They’re all saying essentially the same things, so minor differences get magnified.
Keep in mind that any health care plan will have to pass through congressional committees where all kinds of amendments will be introduced, and then there is the wicked filibuster. It’s far more important for health care in this country that we elect Democratic senators than that we pick Edwards or Clinton over Obama. Give us 61 or 62 senators and we might even be able to pass single-payer Medicare for all health care. Without such a majority it is not even worth proposing.
It’s amusing to see the right-wing reaction to last night’s results. For example:
The upshot is that the Dems are going to have a long primary with two very well funded candidates. The Clintonistas will only give up their power when it is taken from their cold, dead hands. I mean, can you imagine her losing one more race and dropping out? They will tear up Obama, and he will respond tearing her up. And everything that they do will reinforce why Democrats and independents don’t like her. At the same time, both are going to have to run to the left. As Danny pointed out, “the longer it goes on and more liberal positions that they are forced to embrace, the better for us in the general.”
Regardless of the question of who we face, our chances in the general just got a lot better. In all cases, the Democratic base will be more split up, and the candidates will be damaged by the nastiness.
How’s that for rose-colored glasses? The Republicans just elected a man that is wholly unsatisfactory to the Republican Establishment, to the Club for Growth, to paleoconservatives, to neoconservatives, to Goldwater conservatives, to country club Republicans, to most suburbanites, to scientists and technocrats, and to the youth vote. But it is our side that is going to suffer a divisive battle?
I think it is going a little far to say that the Clintons won’t give up until power is pried out of their cold, dead hands. I think they are capable of seeing the writing on the wall. This morning they already know it’s over. They saw Obama’s speech last night. They saw the record turnout, and the fact that Obama beat them with both registered Democrats and women. They know the rationale for Hillary’s presidency is gone. The Democratic Party just found El Dorado…the magic formula that vastly increases turnout. We’ve got the polling advantage and the money advantage…and now we have a candidate that can blast turnout percentages into the stratosphere. That’s the formula for erasing the blue/red divide and building a truly progressive ruling majority that can last decades.
Edwards and Clinton will fight on, but independents in New Hampshire are going to give Obama a twenty-point victory there, and then it’s on to South Carolina where the black community will vote as they have never voted before.
Unless the Democratic electorate suddenly decides that we need someone with more national security experience in office, there is nothing that can stop the Obama steamroller now. And I’m totally fine with that. I’ve never been able to decide between Edwards and Obama. My only concern was that Team Hillary not be given the reins of the party. Never again, as they say. I’m almost certain I’ve gotten my wish.
Will it be a quick and painless death, or a long drawn out and painful one?
Part of Team Clinton’s problem is that they can’t lay a glove on Obama. People don’t care about his foreign policy experience and they aren’t all that impressed with Hillary’s resume. Team Clinton can’t attack his character or it boomerangs on them. There’s no significant policy differences to work with. And Clinton was, and is, wrong on the war in Iraq. Game over. What can they even use to cause division? Nothing. They are limited to asking people to like and trust Hillary more than they like and trust Barack. How do you think that is going to work out?
At a final bit, to drive my point home, here are the historic bump numbers a candidate receives in New Hampshire after a win in Iowa:
An Iowa bounce gives:
1st place: +14.5
2nd place: +3.2
3rd place: -3.5
4th place: -4.4Translation for NH:
(last pre-Iowa RCL average)
Obama: (27) 41.5%
Clinton: (27) 23.5%
Edwards: (18.5) 21.7%
Richardson: (5.8) 1.4%
If history is any guide…
WOW
If those bump numbers hold true then it probably is over.
I just hope I am wrong about him. I want people in handcuffs, and I am not sure he is willing to do it.
Maybe that is the ‘hope’ he is always going on about.
nalbar
email…no link.
Your link in the story doesn’t work for me (there is no link).
thanks…fixed.
Well, that was fun reading!
curly once gave me a t-shirt saying: ‘I’m Never in Denial’ (who knows why…)
Anyway, these guys need container-loads of that t-shirt.
why do you have edwards in third place?
he came in second. or did the numbers change from this AM?
I don’t. He gets a bump, while Hillary takes a hit.
huh?
I must have read that wrong. my bad.
I am SO glad HRC went down. I hope she stays down.
What might be confusing you is that Edwards still projects as a third place finisher in New Hampshire even after the historic bump is applied.
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Iowa Youth Turnout Rate More tha Tripled – 65,000 Iowans under age of 30 participate in the caucuses.
Press release (pdf)
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."
BooMan, a great analysis.
Obie seen as in the driver’s seat.
From Fred Barnes, The Weekly Standard
The End of Inevitability
Obama’s win last night may have also tapped into the black vote. As he often has said, the black vote has been waiting in the wings to see if he can prove himself a winner…this morning on CSPAN the half dozen calls coming in from black voters vibrated with excitement over what this meant for them. If he can tap into the blacks like he tapped into the young voters, he may also tap into other minorities, making him unstoppable.
CSPAN 2 w/Rep Caucus vs CSPAN 1 w/Dem caucus was stunning. The Dems in overflowing #’s were such high energy, helping each other, loudly churning through the process of demanding representation-then a switch to the Rep who sat lonely and sullen, bundled up from the cold. They’ve been taught these past 7 yrs to be afraid, angry and unquestioning. So last night they sat, alone and cold, and with no real choices, voted for a Baptist minister with a given-to-him college degree.
Your first paragraph makes a lot of sense and I was thinking along the same lines.
This will galvanize a large community and create lots of energy and excitement. Look for increasing turn-outs…
Chris Bowers is being quoted all over this morning about how this is a historical first, progressives’ dream, to get the young crowd out to vote. Just two questions, can Obama keep them committed and can he parlay that same psychology into incentive for other voting blocks? If he does, he’ll inherit a country ‘fired up’ so he better be prepared. But even if this was a one-time turnout, it’s still historic and good to seem Americans who value their country enough to get out and work for it.
Absolutely. If he can grab the minority vote and the women’s vote, he is unstoppable. As has been noted before, the “women and minorities” category is 64% of the electorate.
I only hope that if he does get the nomination, he taps Edwards as VP. And if they win, I might reconsider emigrating.
Somebody ought to tell Obama not to fly anywhere with Paul Wellstone.
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I personally don’t buy into historic statistical data, unless you dig into the specifics.
“Historically, there’s not that much of a bounce between Iowa and New Hampshire,” said Andrew E. Smith, an associate professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire at Durham. “There’s some, but not much.”
Bill Clinton is the only candidate who has ever lost in both states and gone on to win his party’s nomination. That happened in 1992, when he was up against two local favorites, Sen. Tom Harkin of Iowa and Sen. Paul Tsongas of Massachusetts.
On the Democratic side, New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton narrowly led Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, 34 to 30 percent. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards was third at 17 percent.
Mr. McCain has again focused most of his energy on New Hampshire, where his moderate brand of Republicanism appeals to many independent voters. (Sen. Joseph Lieberman, an Independent Democrat from Connecticut and the Democratic nominee for vice president in 2000, has been campaigning for Mr. McCain here in recent days.)
“In Iowa they pick corn; in New Hampshire they pick presidents.”
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."
Especially in this case. There is no historic precedent for a major party in the US having either a black man or a white woman as a plausible presidential candidate — much less a black man who could plausibly win a majority of the vote in the general election. We are truly into uncharted territory. (And it’s about goddamn time, I might add.)
I should note that while I am an Edwards supporter with no great love for Barack Obama, the fact that this could even happen, in Iowa, no less, is the first thing that has made me feel really good about America in a long, long time. I’ve been disappointed too many times to get overexcited, but this could actually be the beginning of the end for American conservatism as a viable political force at the national level.
Nice analysis. I agree especially with one point: although Hillary has been running as the candidate with “experience”, in fact this is a weak argument, because her resume isn’t really that impressive.
wow, that rightwing reaction is like a mirror of the speaker’s own insecurities. if any party is gonna tear itself apart, it’s the republicans. huckabee threatens to finally split the big business-evangelical alliance. now that will be a fun fight to watch.
Now that Obama has achieved a clear victory in (96% white) Iowa, the black vote now belongs to Obama, not Hillary. If you want to see an example of why, go and read Oliver Willis’ posts from last night and this morning. It really is their time now and they all know it.
Good for them.