The exit polls are available:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#val=NHDEM
And they reveal a REALLY AMAZING THING:
Of the 1955 respondents, 57 % were female.
57 %.
that is simply an astonishingly HUGE HUGE difference from 50 %.
I for one do not believe for even one second that 57 % of NH residents are female. It might be that 52 % of Dems are females. But 57 %????
The polls do not show the actual pct going for BO, HC, whatever, but multiplication reveals:
BO: .57 F * .34 BOV + .43 M * .40 BOV = .3658 BOV
HC: .57 F * .46 HCV + .43 M * .29 HCV = .3869 HCV
These percentages are not far off the actual results. Conclusion: Female turnout was way over 50 %.
So, what we have is 2 facts:
- HC was supported by a large proportion of women, when looking at the BO v HC contest
- The female turnout in the race was WAAAA – AAA – AAAAYYYY above what any reasonable person would ever expect.
Finally, one parenthetical note: Anyone who follows elections knows that ballot position can lead to small but important gains. If you are high, you get 3 %. HC was above BO.
Right. And the prepolling dramatically undersampled the vote of women.
I would also note we didn’t get any poll results after Hillary’s emotional moment, which I swear swung a lot of women to her at the last minute.
“When Hillary cried, she won me over.”
Who knows, but ….
I think there is something to that.
Just as BooMan said that a lot of people were waiting to crowd surf into Obamamania until he showed he could win, I think there are a lot of people who liked it when the “cold, calculating political machine” showed some real emotion.
As a side note, since we’re here, the media coverage of that absolutely disgusted me. I sincerely hope I never have the misfortune of meeting Chris Matthews, in particular, in person. Or perhaps more aptly, I hope he never has the misfortune of meeting me. What a world class asshole.
He is always talking about how Fred Thompson is this masculine guy. I swear that he is fondling himself as he does, and he has some BIZARRE fascination with Old Spice.
It’s pathetic.
I think to meet Chris Matthews any place other than in MsNBC’s studios you’d probably have to work for an escort service. At least, that’s the impression this incident gives me:
that’s really funny.
Boo,
You guys are absolutely right about NH and the National Media. My favorite, and most accurate summary quote was by Rachel Maddow:
Tom Brokaw in his impossible attempt to “school Tweety” (below the vidro) was the next best and accurate.
Brian Williams ran a distant 3rd in his guestimation.
This is only 1/3 the story – there is a lot more, and I will email you. Boo, before I write on the blog. This has been my home blog thru a long and protracted illness and recoveries and I want your opinion/knowledge on “the rest of the story….” H/T to whoever coined that term
I think he may have serious mental health issues.
Hillary and McAuliffe admit to that: they are not shy about saying so. But can she cry all the way back to the White House?
The media sure helped..running the tearful tape end to end, wall to wall. Zogby had too small a sample that showed late Wednesday she was gaining.
analysis that’s worth a read
At Huffpost: How New Hampshire Upended the Democratic Race
Great analysis!
according to mathews the exit polls had obama winning by 5.
I’d like to see this. I am getting more and more concerned about the use of machines in NH
hardball msnbc. I don’t know if there is a video link but he said it several times and so did at least one of his guests.
also bradblog.com has a front page story on it. I hate machine voting. there is just too much at stake for too many people. If there is a way to rig a vote it will get rigged. just the cynic in me.
The only exit polls I saw, on the MSNBC and CNN site (and it might have been the same poll – I didn’t stop to compare) showed Hillary up 2 points on Obama.
You might have confused (or Chris might have confused) a pre-election poll with an exit poll.
may say different things.
The FINAL exit poll appears to agree substantially with the vote totals.
Thank goodness for that. I hate those “exit polls disagree” They give me a stomach ache.