The polls close in South Carolina in a little over a half an hour. The CNN results can be found here. I have no idea what the results will be, although I do have hope that Obama will win. Maybe Edwards will come in second place. That’s the most realistic result that I can hope for. If anyone can find a faster results page than CNN, please post a link in the thread. Also, since it is Saturday night and you (hopefully) don’t have to work tomorrow, take a drink every time a teevee commentator makes a comment about how winning is the worst thing to ever happen to Obama. Of course, if he doesn’t win, just keep the bottle glued to your lips, as it is going to impossible to face the election season sober.
About The Author

BooMan
Martin Longman a contributing editor at the Washington Monthly. He is also the founder of Booman Tribune and Progress Pond. He has a degree in philosophy from Western Michigan University.
Here’s where the South Carolina Democratic Party will be posting results
http://www.scdp.org/primary_results
You might want to try local stations:
http://www.wistv.com/
http://www.wolo.com/
http://www.wltx.com/
Who thinks up exit poll questions?
But … how was he an important factor? Apparently they didn’t ask for specifics. Is there any possible way that this gives useful information to anyone?
Why Mary, whatever gave you the impression that the press is in the business of doling out useful information?
<bangs self on head> what was I thinking?
This is interesting. Camp Hillary was running robocalls against Edwards.
David Bonoir’s statement:
Maybe I’m reading too much into that, but it would seem to indicate:
1) Hillary is trying to take Edwards out early to prevent a brokered convention where Edwards could be kingmaker
which leads to:
2) Edwards has categorically rejected the possibility of a Clinton / Edwards ticket
OTOH, maybe the simplest possibility is the correct one, and it’s just that the Clinton campaign thinks that Edwards really does draw support from potential Clintonites.
I think its probably the simple explanation – because she needs to not come in third.
Someone on CNN pointed out that in the last couple of elections Hillary didn’t carry white men. She won by carrying women.
But for the first time a lot of the women will be African American women. So Obama will take some of her women vote. She needs Edwards not to take any part of her white male vote or the white female vote.
Of course your second assumption may be true which would probably also make your first assumption more true too.
For those that didn’t catch the deeper meaning of Bonior’s use of the phrase “prohibitive front-runner,” here is the original source (from August 2007):
“Any rational observer would have to say that Hillary Clinton is a prohibitive favorite to win the nomination,” he [Karl Rove] told reporters aboard Air Force One on Monday…
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/08/14/AR2007081401722.html
“This could not be a more grievous event for Hillary Clinton,” Carl Bernstein just said. And this: “Bill Clinton squandered his post-presidency…”
P.S. Obama to speak “very soon” now.
Back in October of last year at The Swamp, Michael Hackett wrote on why “Clinton might turn to Rove’s playbook.”
He seemed to think this would be a clever idea, because “there is no reason that her campaign can’t do for her what Rove did for Bush, which is to make sure you have had a fierce debate during the campaign, made few accommodations to the other side, and stoked the enthusiasm of your own core supporters.”
Right, a fierce debate over utter sleaze and bullshit.
A commenter named GW explained why he didn’t think this would be such a clever idea:
“You forgot to mention that the Rove model relies on a large block of androids controlled by a bunch of fast talking, slick sleaze bags to be successful. The Republicans had a lot of those. The Democrats do have a large number of independent thinkers a part of the base, who will just go limp and not bother to vote if they feel they are being manipulated. Hillary/Bill is walking on very thin ice despite her recent poll numbers. The Rove plan consisted of turning a sow’s ear into a silk purse (Bush) and selling it to just enough people in the center. Remember, too that it was independent voters, mainly disenchanted Democrats in Florida, who enabled Bush to prevail. A similar thing could happen in 2008 to either party which pisses off a large sector of their base.”
specifics?
They’ll make that up.
Thanks for the reminder…
CNN projects Obama the winner. Took them … 30 seconds?
Big race for second. That’s good 🙂
Wining by a substatial margin according to Olberman. Remember if he doesn’t get over 100% of the vote he loses.
big story of the night. Who’ll be second.
Hope Edwards remain in the race pick up as many delegates as he can.
Actually the narrative for Obama on CNN has been pretty good.
They see a lot of the whites who voted for Edwards as being anti-Clinton votes. Obama showed strong enough in most categories.
African- American vote – he has now solidified the African American vote – Hillary got little.
81% for Obama
17% for Clinton
1% Edwards
White vote: Decent enough for Obama
Edwards 39%
Clinton 36%
Obama 25%
Hillary didn’t pick up Black Women:
Black men – 80% Obama 17% Clinton
Black women – 82% Obama 17% Clinton
She also basically tied Obama on white men –
Edwards 44% Clinton 28% Obama 27%
She got white women – but Obama got into the 20’s:
42% Clinton
35 – Edwards
22 – Obama
Obama was only supposed to get 10% of white men. This is SC cradle of the slave holding confederacy. Even Russert is saying this is an “enormous victory.”
Yeah – it’s funny to see Russert show a little excitement.
“Something happened in the last few days…we want to send you out of here with a strong mandate” – Russert, speculating.
This is so cool. I can’t wait for his speech. Its like waiting for Kennedy or MLK to speak its a drug free buzz. I want to believe!
You know, I think that he’s polled at about 10% consistently through the process. But I don’t remember if that was white men or all the white vote. But in any event, yes he DID beat expectations.
This is a HUGE victory for him.
I said somewhere (not here I think) that the voters of NH created a firewall against the use of Gender in this race. It will still be a factor but will never be used in the same way that it was before by the media.
I hoped that the voters of South Carolina would create a firewall against the use of race. CNN seems to be going along that narrative path.
I’m sure more than 700 people voted today, but they’ve already declared him the winner. They did the same thing last week during the GOP primary.
Exit polls used to be very accurate. I think they still are…..most of the time.
White men – 44% to Edwards, the rest split between Clinton and Obama in a statistical tie.
Lisa this could be a really good night for him. I hope he trounces Clinton by so much that no amount of spin can ruin his victory.
Hmm. Exit polls were showing white women for Hillary?
Interesting dynamics going forward.
CNN has decided that the narrative is going to be anti-Bill. That’s good for Obama.
Chastising the Clinton’s for trying to lower expectations by diminishing the black vote.
Truthfully – the media is attacking the Clintons. That’s what I’m hearing.
John Edwards needs to watch his knees and his back now.
Wow. CNN is totally going with a completely negative Clinton narrative.
About time.
I will be entirely truthful and say that I don’t think they were being entirely honest in everything they said. It was clear that they had decided the Clintons were going to get a negative media narrative and they took off the gloves.
But as BooMan said earlier – everyone knows the media creates the narrative. I’m sure Hillary was hoping for a race narrative that would hurt Obama. She didn’t get it on CNN.
Anyone watching MSNBC? What is their narrative?
(Thank GOD no Matthews, tonight)
They’re hitting the negative campaigning of the Clinton’s, but it seems all really sober on MSNBC. I mean, they’re acting like they’re reporting a death of a major figure.
Are they using the race narrative?
For a while, they had McCaskill and Jackson Lee discussing it. Then they went on to the moral victory story for The Clinton’s. Now they’re talking about campaign strategy and Bill Clinton’s loss of credibility? No…stature as a Dem. party figurehead.
They’re not, really, and that’s heartening.
All the talking heads on MSNBC are taking turns beating up on Bill. For a while they had a shouting match between Joe Scarborough, Eugene Robinson, and Pat Buchanan when Buchanan announced that the Clinton strategy was working and they had all been taken in by it. Funny they don’t seem to have all that much to say about Hillary.
Gotta love the media.
Zero percent reporting, but there’s a projected winner.
Hillary is callenging the legality of letting black people vote. They post results after it winds its way through the courts.
It’s based on exit polling.
49% of whites under 30 voted for Obama.
What percentage of the vote were they?
That’s great. That shows Obama can appeal to all young people – even in a state that flies the stars and bars.
Great. Link? Source?
MSNBC. Not on the web, it was reported on TV.
OK
Thanks. Gives me hope for the future.
On CNN, they just said Obama got 50 % of the white vote of voters under 30 years old, but only 15 % of those over 60.
I had no idea…
Oh yeah. She made an announcement a couple of weeks ago and she and her mother went to South Carolina to campaign for him. Trying to get the white woman vote. She’s in one of his national ads.
BooMan wrote about it – he called her a ‘rural’ senator 🙂
Maybe he can make her vote the right way on Monday’s cloture vote. Although I’m not holding my breath.
I now see how they’re going to get Hillary her win – she’ll “beat” John Edwards for second, giving her a victory of sorts, and it will surely be spun as a victory.
You’re right…I’ve heard the Big Bad Wolf say “there is a battle underway for second place” several times now. So they’re setting it up for her to make the real news of the evening by “winning” that battle.
Well, given the way CNN has been going the narrative may be that she squeaked out a victory and almost lost. Let’s wait and see.
MSNBC just called Hillary for second place.
CNN – projects Hillary winning second.
Who is that geriatric blowhard on CNN saying that Bill Clinton was not wrong in his attack on the press in its coverage of Obama?
I don’t know. I wondered that too.
Big picture – Obama has transcended race.
Appeal of his youth – to black and white voters.
I say the CNN narrative has been a win for Obama so far. Even though they are talking about race, the narrative is positive.
Break out your tivo, Barack’s speech scheduled for 9PM
So the media narrative on MSNBC is also anti-Bill, it sounds like.
just following the lead of the world media.
negative article for Bill Clinton in The Financial Times, UK, and The Economist as examples.
as against Obama and his wife – The other Obama all positive media.
Big-picture-wise, it’s brilliant of Charlie Crist (R-FL) to announce his endorsement of John McCain while the results come in for the Democratic Primary in South Carolina. That keeps the Democrats from dominating the next news cycle at a time when there are no corresponding Republican primaries/caucuses.
I was just thinking the same thing. It also maximizes the impact of the announcement because more people are tuned in for the results. Good politics on his part.
via TPM
video of Bill comparing Obama’s campaign in SC to Jesse Jackson’s campaign in 88
This seems very dumb of him imo. Nothing against Jesse Jackson but no one EVER thought he had a chance to become president, they thought he had an opportunity to run for president and raise some issues (like Kucinich). This is clearly meant to try to minimize any Obama victory in SC – and I think it will backfire.
Bill knows he can’t take this loss lying down. This is a predictable attack, and I think it is along the (racial) line of previous ones.
here’s the meme in the Afro-American community.
Billary, we hardly knew you. You used us, pretended to have our interest at heart, felt our pain. If you were really genuine, you’d have been cheering Obama, not denigrating him.
Actually, it’s smart in an evil way. Bill’s reminding Whites that Barack Obama isn’t White. No-brainer, of course, but remember – and I hate this phrase – Obama transcennds race, BJ Bill is trying to make Barack Obama a little less transcendent.
I’m still waiting for Bill to really lose his cool and refer to Obama as “Boy.” <– Say that with a white southern drawl.
I still have seared into my memory John Edwards’ quip in one of the 2004 debates (South Carolina?) to Howard Dean: “We don’t need people like you coming down here telling us what to do.”
Oscar I’ve been trying to find that quote. I remember that and thought WTF is that supposed to mean?
As Dennis Green might have put it, it meant what we thought it meant – it was a dog-whistle plea to Old South Democrats, and my stance of “F&@$ John Edwards” has remained consistent ever since.
WaPo, Aug. 15, 2007:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/08/14/AR2007081401722.html
“Just days after the November 2004 election, Bill Clinton pulled Rove aside at the dedication of the William J. Clinton Presidential Library in Arkansas. ‘Hey, you did a marvelous job, it was just marvelous what you did,’ Clinton told Rove, according to the book ‘The Way to Win: Taking the White House in 2008,’ by John F. Harris and Mark Halperin. ‘I want to get you down to the library. I want to talk politics with you. You just did an incredible job, and I’d like to really get together with you and I think we could have a great conversation.'”
The Clinton’s have their elected officials on point. They are pounding The Clinton’s talking points. Now, why is it those same Democrats can’t stay on message or together during votes in Congress?
And I’m being reminded why I detest Loretta Sanchez.
Somebody remind me again why conservatives hate John McCain?
if he’s trying to win back their hearts he better HURRY
Iraq was a stupid idea and an unsustainable surge has not changed anything. The awakening council was the best thing going for U.S. Don’t think the Iraqi’s will forget who Al Qaeda followed to Iraq. Its pretty shortsighted of McCain to run on Iraq.
He doesn’t march lockstep with the party. Mind you, he marches with them in cadence, but since he puts a little bob and weave in his marching every now and then they take issue with him. Keep in mind that conservatives value conformity above all else – they are, after all, conservatives.
Hillary makes no live statement, but CNN goes live to Bill in Independence Missouri?
BJ Clinton is
lyingspeaking in Independence, MO. Someone, who clearly doesn’t have a daughter, gave BJ Clinton a key to the city…Which Clinton is running again?
And he’s selling himself in this speech. Unbelievable.
Has this EVER happened in US history?
Could this be any more disturbing?
He said, “The Clinton’s vs. Obama. It’s 2 to 1…keep mentioning it.
MSNBC cut away from it, but no one’s discussing the “jaw-dropping OMG, he’s admitting he’s running again!!!”-ness of it all.
The liar from the DLC. Oh, that doesn’t quite narrow it down, now does it…
I’ve been pounding this for a month, but it’s official. Bill Clinton is giving the concession speech. MSNBC has it live.
Reminding blacks that his office is in Harlem.
So are several crack houses…
The only people who think of Harlem as a black city are white people. That place is so gentrified now…I don’t think that’s going to resonate much with black people.
I’m from Ohio, what the heck do I know about Harlem? I think Globetrotters every time I hear it.
Funny, who’s the first Clinton we hear from tonight? The Big Dog is in Independence and CNN and MSNBC both cut to it.
Oops, not quick enough, nevermind.
You can’t NOT get chills at the excitement at the Obama headquarters. Yikes!
It’s amazing! I wish I were there. 🙂
CNN calls it a rout.
CNN is talking about the districts. Obama won the poorest and richest counties in SC. Hillary has won 1 county (Myrtle Beach), Edwards won 2 (including where he was born).
Anybody just hear Joe Scarborough rant about how Bill is still talking about himself…
I’m sorry I missed that.
When Pat fucking Buchanan defends a former Democratic President.
Lol!
We’re here in SC, headed to the victory party–if we can get in. We were working in Orangeburg and staying with a friend’s parent’s home. What a feeling!
Woohoo! I’m jealous!
Have a GREAT time!
I love victory parties when the victor exceeds expectations. Especially if you’ve been working for a candidate that day and are exhausted.
My aunts sister called her and said it was insane where she lives (I have no idea where that is, I just know it’s walking distance to the beach) and that the neigbhorhood is having a block party.
Par Buchanan is trying to equate white South Carolinians with all white Americans. Bad analogy.
True, but as the old song would imply, if Barack can make it there he’ll make it anywhere…
Agreed. But Pat was screaming that Obama’s in big trouble because he’s somehow dropping among ALL whites because he didn’t do as well with whites in SC as he did in the other (northern and western) states.
Well, nobody’s ever accused Pat of sanity, and if such an accusation were made there would not be enough evidence to convict…
That’s the Clinton strategy – to label him as the “black candidate”. Guess the media isn’t buying it.
It’s going to be hard to sell that narrative when you look at his win among the under 30 crowd. This country is changing and the young people are in the vanguard.
Caroline Kennedy to endorse Obama.
“a President like my father…”
Not as good as an endorsement from Ted. But good for Obama.
Obama did well among college educated whites in SC.
With 83% in, Obama has more than double the total vote of Hillary.
My sister who is Rep., just got this email, don’t know the sender, but I would sign it Rove.
My sister asks if this is true, I know some of it isn’t but what say you.
Sounds like typical Republican smear. You can always tell Republican smears because they always claim someone is taking $$$ out of the public (i.e. THEIR) pockets.
I saw on CNN that nifty map they had where is all Obama blue, but I’m actually looking at the numbers and they’re sinking in:
That’s not winning. That’s a stompin’. That’s a straight up ass-whuppin’.
This is a big night for Obama. He won with REAL numbers. Big numbers – across the board in every income category and age group (except the elderly).
AND .. probably even more important for him, the media has decided to destroy the Clintons tonight. The fairness in me says that they are going completely overboard on the Clintons tonight but I don’t really care.
Here’s the real question. Now that the media is attacking the Clintons will the traditional Dems. kick into “protect the Clintons” mode simply because they always have protected them against media attacks or will Clinton fatigue set in and the public start to write them off? I think it’s the real question for the night.
In just talking to people here in LA and online, people sound sick of Bill Clinton and think they need to be taken down a notch. As long as the media doesn’t start bringing up old shit, I think there won’t be a backlash. Right now, they’re talking about Bill’s role in the campaign and how he’s harming sis legacy. I can’t wait for them to mention the generational divide on that front too.
Donna just said there is no such thing as Clinton fatigue.
But I think she may be talking about Bill getting tired though 🙂
I hate to say it, but I’m beginning to understand those old Clinton haters of yore….
Resize that mofo!
Can somebody edit that down to about 300px wide?
We need an admin to do it and Boo doesn’t seem to be around. Maybe Steven will check in.
Well, it was a big ol’ can o’ whoopass that Barack opened up on Hillary, so maybe it’s apropos…at least until an admin can fix it.
It’s perfect.
It’s a great feeling. Don’t think we’ll get in, but we’ll soak it up anyway. Also check the total # of voters today. As many as half a million voters, and Dems are crowing. On Crackberry, will try to keep to ya updated.
Devilstower said this at dKos:
That’s one giant can of Whoop Ass…
President (to be) Obama is now speaking…
This is exciting!
I can’t tell you how wonderful it was to come home to the victory speech on teevee after a night at the movies.. 🙂
And a solid trouncing of the Clintons, to boot. Woo-hoo!
and you missed all the Clinton bashing narratives !
Great speech. Inspiring speech. The first time in this primary campaign I’ve felt hopeful. He does so much better with a speech than a debate when he’s clearly thinking over his answers. That’s a good thing but reduces his fluency.
I can completely relate – I can think or I can speak, but if you make me try to do both at the same time then it’s a bumbling, stumbling, fumbling mess.
That big pic up there just turned this thread into molassas for me and I’m on sattelite. Jeebus…
maybe CG will delete it.